Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. During this period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayed well above their historic levels. This limited demand growth, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets.

Around 300 billion cubic metres per year of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is expected to be added worldwide by 2030, primarily supported by liquefaction capacity expansions in the United States and Qatar. This wave of new LNG production capacity is set to profoundly transform global gas market dynamics. The scaling up of LNG supply will play a key role in enhancing supply security and improving the affordability of natural gas – including in price-sensitive emerging import markets.

The analytical framework underpinning the medium-term outlook in this report is structured around a base case, which is complemented by a high case that explores the potential for greater demand response to possible price changes. The base case reflects current project plans, policy settings and economic growth projections, as well as prices informed by the current forward curve. The high case assumes that LNG import prices move closer towards the short-run marginal cost of US LNG supply and unlock additional gas demand, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets. However, a weaker macroeconomic environment, together with a slower build-out of natural gas infrastructure and contractual rigidities, might limit the scope of the price-adjusted demand response. 

A prolonged period of lower LNG prices could reduce the incentive for project developers to invest in LNG liquefaction projects and in upstream and midstream infrastructure. This, in turn, could lead to a potential tightening of global gas markets post-2030, especially if demand growth follows a higher trajectory.

Following a relatively strong increase in 2024, natural gas demand growth slowed significantly in the first nine months of 2025. Preliminary data indicate that natural gas consumption increased by just around 0.5% year-on-year during this period in major markets1. This growth was almost entirely driven by Europe and North America, while demand remained subdued in Asia and declined in Eurasia.

Tighter market fundamentals have contributed to higher gas prices in key import markets, weighing on natural gas consumption, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets. While global LNG supply increased by more than 5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, this growth was partially offset by lower piped gas supplies to Europe from Russia and Norway. Stronger storage injection needs in Europe further tightened markets.

For the full year of 2025, global gas demand growth is forecast to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to below 1% in 2025. Demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to expand by less than 1% from 2024, the weakest growth since 2022.

Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, 2025 has seen the second highest amount of LNG liquefaction capacity reaching final investment decision (FID) in a single year. More than 90 billion cubic metres per year (bcm/yr) of additional capacity has been sanctioned so far in 2025.

Over 80 bcm/yr of liquefaction capacity has been approved year-to-date in the United States, an all-time high for the US LNG sector. The projects include Louisiana LNG, Corpus Christi Train 8&9, CP2 phase 1, Rio Grande LNG Train 4 & 5 and Port Arthur phase 2. 

The amount of LNG projects reaching FID highlights the industry’s confidence that demand for LNG will continue to expand strongly, reflecting the supportive policy environment in the United States for natural gas projects. ​This new wave of LNG projects is set to further solidify the United States’ position as the world’s largest LNG exporter. By the end of the decade, the United States could provide around one-third of global LNG supply, up from around 20% in 2024.

The United States and Qatar together account for 70% of the roughly 300 bcm/yr of new LNG liquefaction capacity that is expected to come online globally by 2030. This is based on the official timelines of projects that have reached FID or are under construction. The scaling up of LNG supply is playing a key role in rebalancing global gas markets, enhancing supply security and making natural gas more affordable for importing countries.

The unprecedented expansion in LNG capacity could translate into a net increase of 250 bcm in global LNG supply by 2030. This takes into account declining LNG output from certain legacy producers, as well as the ramp-up rates and utilisation factors of new liquefaction plants. To put this number into perspective, this increase in LNG supply is equivalent to around 7% of Asia’s thermal coal demand. In contrast, long-distance piped gas trade is expected to decline by almost 55 bcm between 2024 and 2030, primarily due to lower piped gas deliveries to Europe.

When considering price trajectories informed by current forward curves, global LNG demand growth is not expected to absorb all incremental LNG supply over the 2024-30 period in the base case. This could result in around 65 bcm of surplus supply. If European hub and Asian spot LNG prices start to gradually move closer to the short-run marginal cost of US LNG supply between 2027 and 2030, this could spur additional gas demand, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets. This could absorb additional LNG supply and limit the risk of production shut-ins at liquefaction plants. However, a weaker macroeconomic environment – together with a slower build-out of natural gas infrastructure in South and Southeast Asia and contractual rigidities – might limit the scope of the price-adjusted demand response. If existing infrastructure in Southeast Asia and other emerging LNG-importing regions is not expanded, about one-quarter of the demand response may be at risk of not materializing.

Our base case expects global natural gas demand (excluding bunkers) to increase at an average annual rate of nearly 1.5% between 2024 and 2030. This translates into an increase of 380 bcm by 2030. Global gas demand grows at a somewhat faster rate, around 1.7% per year, and expands by more than 10% by 2030 in our price-driven high case. This would translate into an additional increase of over  65 bcm compared with the base case. The Asia Pacific region accounts for almost 80% of this additional demand.

In the base case, the Asia Pacific region is expected to be the primary driver of global gas demand growth, representing around half of the increase through 2030. China alone is projected to account for a quarter of global demand growth due to abundant supply, lower spot LNG prices and expanding import infrastructure. The Middle East, Eurasia and North America are also expected to see meaningful demand growth during this period. Demand is expected to rise more modestly in Africa and Latin America. This increase is expected to be more than offset by an 8% decline in European gas demand over the forecast period.

In terms of sectors, industry and energy (including refining) together account for about 45%  of expected global gas demand growth between 2024 and 2030 in the base case.The power sector is the second largest contributor to global demand growth over the forecast period, accounting for over a third of the net increase. The Asia Pacific region accounts for more than  half of power sector demand growth. Rising electricity demand in the Middle East also plays a significant role, adding more than 50 bcm/yr of demand between 2024 and 2030, primarily due to large-scale oil-to-gas switching initiatives, led by Saudi Arabia. Natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sector is expected to increase by close to 50 bcm/yr by 2030, driven by Asia, Eurasia and the Middle East. 

Gas demand from the transport sector is expected to grow more modestly than other sectors, rising by almost 35 bcm/yr. This growth is largely driven by road transport in China, with a smaller contribution from India. In addition to inland consumption, LNG use in the marine transport sector, which includes both LNG carriers and commercial vessels powered by LNG, is expected to increase by 15 bcm/yr to 2030. This is driven by fleet expansion, the build-out of LNG bunkering infrastructure and favourable economics compared with other alternative fuels.

The role of long-term LNG contracts remains crucial as an effective risk-sharing mechanism between sellers and buyers. Long-term agreements, or those with a duration of ten years or more, accounted for 75% of the volumes contracted since 2022, reflecting sellers’ and buyers’ preference for demand and supply security, respectively.

The IEA’s database of LNG contracts indicates that they are evolving towards greater flexibility and pricing diversity. The share of destination-free contracts is expected to account for just over half of total LNG volumes contracted by 2030. Meanwhile, pricing terms are becoming more diverse, with hub indexation and hybrid pricing formulae gaining traction at the expense of oil indexation.

Based on existing active contracts, the share of oil-indexed LNG contracts is expected to fall to around half of contracted volumes by 2030. The role of portfolio players in LNG trade is growing, providing greater optionality to end-buyers. The growing flexibility and liquidity of the LNG market is becoming increasingly important in responding to gas supply and demand shocks, helping to ensure supply security.

LNG supply operations have a sizeable greenhouse gas footprint. This comes primarily from associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also from methane leaks, with Scope 1 and 2 emissions distributed across upstream operations, gas processing and transmission, and liquefaction. By capturing and storing CO2 in both upstream and liquefaction operations, LNG producers could reduce part of their emissions while maintaining energy security and flexibility.

Momentum behind CCUS is building among major producers. In Australia, the Gorgon LNG project started CO2 reinjection in 2019. In Qatar, a major CO₂ recovery and sequestration facility at Ras Laffan was commissioned in 2019 and is currently being expanded. In Southeast Asia, both Indonesia and Malaysia are developing CCUS projects, which could reduce the emissions intensity of their LNG exports. In the United States, several LNG project developers announced plans to integrate CCUS-based solutions into existing or future LNG liquefaction plants.  

CCUS is shifting from demonstration to deployment in the LNG sector. The projects now underway suggest that by 2030, CCUS could become an increasingly important feature of new LNG supply, influencing access to finance and long-term contracts in markets where carbon intensity is scrutinised.

The deployment of low-emissions gases is expected to continue at a strong pace over the medium term. In our outlook, the supply of low-emissions gases is expected to increase by two-and-half times by 2030. This translates to a rise of over 20 billion cubic meters-equivalent (bcm-eq) . Despite this growth, the impact of low-emissions gases on the global gas balance is set to remain limited through 2030. They are expected to account for less than 1% of global gaseous fuels supply at the end of this decade.

Biomethane production is expected to more than double between 2024 and 2030, contributing over 50% of the total increase in low-emissions gases during this period. Low-emissions hydrogen is projected to grow at an average rate of 33% per year between 2024 and 2030 from a very low base. In contrast, e-methane struggles to take off over the forecast period, requiring a concentrated effort between emerging producers and consumers to establish viable supply chains, effective support mechanisms and cost efficiency.