National hydrogen import strategy

The import strategy for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives sets out a clear and reliable framework for the urgently needed imports of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives to Germany. It complements Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy.

It initially assumed an import quota of 50-70 % for the year 2045, based on findings from the system development strategy (SES). The required import quantities are closely linked to the expected hydrogen demand in Germany. Compared to previous expectations, a significantly delayed and presumably lower ramp-up of the hydrogen market in Germany is now anticipated. According to the Energiewende-Monitoring from September 2025, commissioned by the BMWE, the scenarios and studies examined there show a very wide range regarding hydrogen demand in Germany and imports: By 2045, hydrogen demand in Germany of 150-650 TWh (including derivatives, according to climate target achievement scenarios) and hydrogen imports of 25-418 TWh are expected. The range of the import share is also higher in the Energiewende-Monitoring at 26-92% than in the SES. These ranges reflect the high market uncertainty. As part of new long-term scenarios for the entire energy system, which are currently being developed by a scientific consortium on behalf of the BMWE, new estimates of hydrogen demand in Germany and import quotas are being analyzed. Based on this, the SES will be updated by September 2027.

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