Low storage buffers in Europe could prolong global gas market tightness well into 2027

Europe is entering the winter heating season with its lowest natural gas storage levels in more than a decade, potentially extending tight conditions in global gas markets well into 2027, according to a new IEA report.

The Global Gas Security Review 2026, out today, examines how a decade of structural changes are reshaping global gas markets and helping importers in some regions weather the supply shock stemming from the current conflict in the Middle East. The report finds that the global gas market has evolved substantially since the Security Review was first published in 2016, becoming more flexible, liquid and interconnected – but also more complex.

The expansion of spot trading and a growing share of destination-flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts have strengthened the interconnectivity of regional markets and made it easier to withstand supply disruptions. Even so, the effective halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz – which reduced loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) between March and October of this year – has driven Asian and European prices to their highest level since the 2022-23 gas supply crisis.

The report – which also includes the IEA’s latest quarterly gas market analysis and updated near-term forecasts – projects that global LNG supply will fall by 3%, or almost 20 bcm, in 2026. Global gas demand is expected to decline by around 1.5%, or close to 65 bcm, driven by demand destruction in the Middle East, lower industrial gas consumption in Europe and gas-to-coal switching in the power sector across many countries in Asia.

In the European Union, gas storage sites are entering the 2026-27 heating season with inventories at their lowest levels since 2013. This further increases the region’s reliance on global LNG supplies to meet peak seasonal demand, and could leave the region particularly exposed if the upcoming winter is colder than expected, or if there are technical outages or other supply disruptions.

According to the report, low European gas storage levels, combined with limited storage options in LNG importing countries in Asia and South America, could intensify competition for a scarce number of flexible LNG cargoes in the coming months and put upward pressure on spot prices, especially during periods of high demand. Europe’s low storage levels could also substantially increase the need for injections to replenish inventories through summer 2027, which could extend global market tightness well into the coming year.

The findings highlight the importance of strengthening international cooperation on gas supply security, even as global markets become more flexible. The IEA has expanded its work in this area over the past decade to help Member countries strengthen their preparedness for potential supply crises as geopolitical and market complexity grow.