Global electricity demand growth set to accelerate as power systems adjust to recent shocks

Global electricity demand is set to grow at a faster pace this year than last – even as power systems worldwide contend with energy market turmoil and volatile prices, according to a new IEA report.

While recent disruptions to global natural gas markets due to the war in the Middle East have pushed up electricity generation costs in many regions, strong underlying demand from industry, appliances, cooling, electric vehicles and data centres is expected to keep global electricity consumption on a firm upward trajectory.  

Published today, the IEA’s latest Electricity Mid-Year Update forecasts that global electricity demand will grow by 3.6% in 2026 and by a further 3.8% in 2027 – up from 3% growth in 2025. Global electricity consumption is projected to reach 30,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2027, compared with 28,600 TWh in 2025.

The disruptions to liquified natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz have tested electricity markets around the world, driving natural gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the 2022-23 energy crisis and prompting emergency measures to curb energy use in some regions. Power systems have for the most part weathered the impacts of the crisis so far, with additional LNG supplies – particularly from North America – helping to ease market tightness. Nevertheless, spikes in gas prices have prompted fuel switching from natural gas to coal in several Asian and European countries. At the same time, rising power generation from renewable sources has contributed to the diversification of electricity supplies in many countries, supporting energy security and helping cushion the impacts of the shock.

Renewables are on track to become the world’s largest source of electricity generation in 2026, overtaking coal after reaching near parity in 2025. Renewable generation is set to grow by more than 8% in 2026, and it is poised to increase its share of global electricity generation from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.

Solar power continues to lead growth in electricity supply worldwide. Solar PV generation is set to expand strongly over the next two years, overtaking wind power in 2026 to become the world's second-largest source of renewable electricity generation after hydropower. Solar PV’s global electricity output is forecast to increase by around 600 TWh in 2026, matching the record annual growth achieved in 2025, with similarly robust expansion expected in 2027.

The world’s largest economies are set to see strong rises in electricity consumption. In China, demand growth is expected to accelerate to 5.5% in 2026, pushed higher by manufacturing activity and expanding electric vehicle charging. In India, demand growth is forecast to rebound strongly to 7% following weather-related weakness in 2025. Among advanced economies, growth remains robust at close to 2% in the United States and in the European Union. By contrast, sharply higher fuel costs and supply disruptions are weighing on electricity consumption in more price-sensitive LNG-importing markets in Asia, including Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The report cautions that weather-related developments may affect electricity demand trends significantly, adding uncertainty to the outlook. A stronger-than-expected El Niño event in 2026 could boost electricity demand further by raising cooling needs while simultaneously reducing hydropower and wind generation in some regions, increasing reliance on other sources of generation.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation globally are forecast to increase by around 1% in 2026 before flattening out in 2027. Higher natural gas prices have supported an increase in coal-fired generation, although continued growth in renewables and a strong increase in nuclear power are together expected to prevent emissions from rising further in 2027.

The LNG price shock resulting from Hormuz disruptions has also translated into higher wholesale electricity prices in markets where LNG plays a central role. Average spot electricity prices in the European Union and Japan increased by more than 30% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2026. By contrast, wholesale prices in the United States remained broadly stable and those in India rose by less than 10% during the same period.

The report finds that as renewable generation expands worldwide, negative wholesale electricity prices are becoming more common in some markets. These occurrences broadly signal insufficient flexibility in the system due to technical, regulatory or contractual reasons. At the same time, wider price swings throughout the day are increasing the importance of flexibility, including battery storage and demand response, for maintaining reliable and efficient electricity systems.