Countries backing Belém Pledge are showing faster progress on sustainable fuel growth, but more action needed

Global demand for sustainable fuels – including biofuels, biogases, low-emissions hydrogen and derived fuels – is projected to grow by around a third between 2024 and 2030 as more countries around the world seek to diversify their energy supplies and reduce emissions. But that growth is not yet on course to meet the ambition set out last year in the Belém Pledge on Sustainable Fuels, according to a new IEA report.

Launched at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, and prepared at the request of the Brazilian COP30 Presidency, the report takes stock of progress in the first year since Brazil, India, Italy and Japan launched the Belém Pledge on Sustainable Fuels in 2025.

According to the report, under current policies and market conditions, global demand for sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels in 2030 is projected to be around 30% below the level needed to stay on track for the pledge’s goal of quadrupling their use by 2030. By the end of September 2026, 32 countries had endorsed the pledge, together accounting for almost 40% of global sustainable fuel demand. With significant policy momentum building in those countries, sustainable fuel demand in their markets rose by 9% in the last year and by 7% elsewhere around the world. And the positive trend is projected to continue: under current policies, demand in endorsing countries is set to increase by a compound annual rate of nearly 7% a year through 2030, compared with around 3% in countries outside the pledge.

Much of the near-term momentum is coming from liquid biofuels, which account for nearly 70% of projected global sustainable fuel growth through 2030, driven mainly by road transport. The report finds that their contribution to energy security is also becoming more apparent, with their use already reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels in road transport by up to 40% in some markets. And in 2026, several countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, raised biofuel blending requirements in response to higher fossil fuel prices and supply pressures linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Biomethane is expected to drive growth in biogases, supported by its ability to make use of existing natural gas infrastructure. Meanwhile, production of low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels from projects already operating or backed by committed investment is projected to rise to nearly six times its 2024 level by 2030.

The report finds that the 2035 goal is still achievable, provided countries build on existing policy momentum, fully implement announced policies and take further steps to remove barriers to investment and deployment. It identifies several priorities for governments including setting clear roadmaps and targets, creating predictable demand, cooperating on robust carbon accounting, supporting innovation to bring down costs and developing the supply chains and infrastructure needed to bring sustainable fuels to market. Expanding access to finance, especially in emerging and developing economies, will also be critical for endorsing countries to make progress towards the Belém Pledge’s goals.