Share of global heat pump demand excluding China by component that can be met without China, 2024

Sources

IEA analysis based on IEA (2025) World Energy Outlook 2025, IEA (2025) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (2024), BNEF (2025a), EV Volumes (2025), WindEurope (2023), InfoLink (2025), S&P Global (2025) and ChinaIOL (2025).

Notes

STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; AC = air conditioner. Fluorspar refers to total production capacity and demand across all sectors, and not specifically to demand from any single supply chain. For the midstream and downstream, manufacturing capacities are used, while for critical minerals and materials, production is used. Assumes production outside of China is set to 85% of nameplate capacity.