Rated real-world well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions of new light-duty vehicle sales worldwide by size segment, 2030

Sources

IEA analysis based on IHS Markit and the IEA Mobility Model (2021 September version).

Notes

STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; NZE = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. CCUS = carbon capture utilisation and storage. For FCEVs, the red dots show the well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions incurred if hydrogen were to be produced via electrolysis with dedicated renewable sources. The height of the stacked column shows instead total well-to-wheel emissions of fuel cell electric vehicles considering current and projected share of hydrogen production pathways. Therefore, the difference between the red column and the total indicates the theoretical well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential of FCEVs. The carbon intensity of global electricity generation improves 26% between 2019 and 2030 STEPS and a further 30% between 2030 APS and 2030 STEPS. The utility factor of PHEVs is assumed to improve by six percentage points between 2019 and 2030 STEPS and by a further nine percentage points between 2030 STEPS and 2030 APS. 2019 STEPS considers a vehicle sold in 2019 with well-to-tank intensities evolving in line with the STEPS trajectory, while 2030 APS considers a vehicle sold in 2030 with the well-to-tank intensities evolving in line with the APS trajectories.