Potential for cost-competitive electrification of residential heat pumps at different electricity-to-natural gas price ratios, 2025

Notes

Each rectangular area represents an EU country; the height represents the price ratio at which that member country sees the electric technology become cost-competitive with a fossil-fuel alternative, and the width represents the amount of electricity demand if the relevant end-use were to be entirely electrified. Cost-competitiveness is assessed over the equipment lifetime for industry and buildings, and over an 8-year period for electric cars, considering upfront costs (including installation and financing costs) and operational expenditures (including fuel and maintenance). The calculation is based on 2025 fossil fuel prices. 2025 prices represent the EU-wide interquartile range. The 2025 Oil products price is a weighted average of gasoline, diesel and liquified petroleum gas prices. Subsidies on upfront costs are not considered. In industry, heat pumps are assumed to be able to provide heat up to 150⁰C, and electric boilers are used at higher temperatures; temperatures above 400⁰C are not included on this figure.