Wired for water: How electrification is transforming desalination

Pressure on water resources is increasing worldwide and can be very acute at the local level. Rising consumption across sectors combined with population growth in already water-stressed regions is intensifying water scarcity. Desalination has long been developed to supply fresh water in the most affected areas, with significant implications for the energy system: energy use ranges from under 0.1% to as much as 15% of total final consumption, depending on national reliance. However, a shift is underway from thermal desalination technologies to electricity-driven systems as the Age of Electricity reshapes the water-energy nexus.

Today, over 4 000 billion cubic metres (bcm) of fresh water are withdrawn annually, of which nearly 1500 bcm are consumed (i.e. not returned to the local system). In other words, the global population withdraws as much water each year for its own needs and economic activities as is contained in Lake Michigan. Agriculture dominates water uses, consistently accounting for about 70% of withdrawals since 2000 and nearly 90% of consumption. As the global population grew by 30%, municipal withdrawals increased at a similar pace, while a moderate decline in industrial withdrawals partly offset growth in other sectors.

As population and municipal demand increase, water stress is intensifying. Chronic overuse of non-renewable water sources can cause irreversible to damage natural capital, leading to a situation referred to as “water bankruptcy”. Over the past two decades, the number of people living in highly water-stressed areas has risen by almost 1 billion to more than 3 billion. Three-quarters of this growth occurred in extremely high-stress regions, areas where 30% of the global population live today.  Around 85% live in emerging market and developing economies. Major population growth centres are already affected: in India, over 70% of the population lives in highly stressed areas, particularly in the northeast, and the number of people facing water stress today equals the country’s total population in the early 2000s.

The Middle East and North Africa, home to 490 million people in 2024, faces extreme water stress. Around 75% of the population lived in water-stressed areas in 2000, and despite slightly faster population growth in relatively less stressed zones – such as northern Morocco, northeast Algeria and the Tigris valley – more than 70% remain exposed to high or extreme stress today.

Countries have several levers to address water stress: improving agricultural efficiency, expanding water reuse and rainwater harvesting, and modernising infrastructure to reduce losses and expand storage and transport. While these remain the first line of defence, countries have at the same time increased investments in water desalination. Australia demonstrates contrasting responses. During the “Millennium drought” of the early 2000s, Southeast Queensland prioritised demand-side measures, cutting per capita water use by 40% over a decade. In contrast, the Perth region expanded desalination capacity to boost supply; while this eased system pressure, it doubled the energy intensity of water supply, and water use fell by only about 10%.

Desalination was first deployed around 1970 in the Gulf to support urban growth and economic expansion in arid conditions. Initially used to sustain life by providing drinkable water, desalination has expanded to industrial applications, such as refining and power generation, and more recently to irrigation, driven by rising water scarcity. Emerging uses, such as hydrogen production through water electrolysis – requiring high-purity water – including in the Gulf, Jordan and Algeria, could boost further growth. Desalination is growing across regions, driven by different needs: industrial demand in China (particularly for power generation and refining) and Latin America (notably mining in Chile’s Atacama Desert), agricultural uses in Europe and North Africa (notably Morocco), and small islands, where it is vital for both economic development and basic water supply. Among the 25 countries and territories with the highest desalination per capita, 16 are islands with populations under 1 million.

The size of desalination projects has grown dramatically: the average plant is now roughly 10 times larger than 15 years ago, driven by rising water needs, economies of scale and technological advances. Today, the largest plants can produce around 1 Mm3/day, using as much electricity as a city of 200 000 households. Many of these mega-plants are in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), often integrated with power generation and combining multiple phases, fuels and desalination technologies. For example, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair combines multi-stage flash (a thermal technology) and reverse osmosis units for over 1 Mm3/day, while Shuaibah 3 retired its multi-stage flash plant and reopened in 2025 with 600 000 m3/day reverse osmosis capacity.

Today, the Middle East and North Africa still host most global capacity, over 40%, with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries alone accounting for 33%. The region now produces 12 billion cubic metres of desalinated water annually, equivalent to the Euphrates River’s flow, of which two-thirds is used for drinking water. Globally, desalinated water meets less than 1% of total freshwater withdrawals, and only around 3.5% even in the Middle East and North Africa, but dependence can be very acute locally, with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and lots of insular systems relying almost exclusively on desalination for all their municipal or even broader freshwater uses. The world’s largest desalination plants are located in the MENA region, often integrating multiple desalination phases and power generation within the same complex. In such contexts, major desalination sites function as critical infrastructure with operational vulnerability, as disruptions could significantly affect the availability of drinking water.

Following the outbreak of hostilities in the region in February 2026, desalination plants have come under threat from nearby strikes and in some cases, have been struck directly. This includes the attack on a desalination facility on Qeshm island in Iran – affecting the water supply to 30 villages – and a strike in Bahrain, which also damaged a desalination plant. Previous conflicts such as the 1991 Gulf War and the 2016 war in Yemen likewise saw desalination infrastructure and feedwater affected, forcing reliance on reserves, creating acute local water shortages and in some cases, endangering public health due to the use of contaminated water. Some authorities in the region maintain strategic water reserves, although these may only last for days or weeks. If necessary, non-essential water uses such as irrigation can be curtailed in the short term to alleviate critical water stress, while infrastructure and structural demand measures improve resilience in the long term.

Historically, thermal desalination technologies – such as multi-effect distillation (MED) and multistage flash (MSF) – dominated MENA, primarily using natural gas (and some oil, especially in Gulf countries) for thermal processes, plus electricity for pumping and treatment. Elsewhere, nearly all new capacity since 1970 has been reverse osmosis, partly due to higher fossil fuel prices, even if capacity only picked up in later years, when the technology became more efficient and cost-effective.

Thermal plants are highly energy-intensive, using up to ten times more energy (around 250 MJ/m³) than reverse osmosis for the core desalination process. Including intake, treatment, brine disposal, and controls, thermal plants typically consume 7 to 14 MJ/m³ (around 2-4 kWh/m³) of electricity, while seawater reverse osmosis uses 9 to 22 MJ/m³ (around 2.5-6 kWh/m³) for the core desalination and other steps combined, with brackish water desalination and modern state-of-the-art plants requiring even less. For context, a household relying entirely on desalinated water from thermal plants consumes as much energy weekly as a full car tank of gas.

In the Middle East and North Africa, in recent decades, electricity-powered membrane technologies (especially reverse osmosis) have quickly gained share. The last major new thermal plant in the region was added in 2018 in Qatar. Reverse osmosis and other membrane-based plants now account for over 60% of installed capacity in the region and more than 80% globally, doubling electricity consumption for desalination since 2010.

Looking further ahead, desalination is set to grow rapidly as countries seek secure water supplies and as technologies advance. National targets and upcoming projects illustrate the trend: Morocco plans to supply 60% of drinking water from desalination by 2030 (up from 25% in 2025), while one of the world’s largest desalination plants is planned to supply over 3 million people by 2029, providing 40% of drinking water in Jordan.

The IEA investigates implications of water desalination uptake amidst changing power systems in its Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa report and World Energy Outlook 2025. Combined growth around the world and electrification in the Middle East and North Africa raise the electrification rate from 28% today to 50% by 2035, adding 190 TWh to global electricity demand – equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 60 million households – and representing one of the main drivers of electricity demand growth in some regions. Both the Current Policies Scenario and the Stated Policies Scenario, which differ in their reading of policy settings and perspectives on energy technology and market trends, present a similar growth in electricity consumption to 2035.

Barriers remain and must be carefully managed. High costs challenge countries with limited investment capacity, while concentrated brine can damage ecosystems if poorly handled. Effective water management strategies, including agricultural efficiency measures as implemented in Saudi Arabia, are critical. Many countries still need to strengthen key infrastructure – water storage, distribution networks, and treatment facilities – while also improving permitting processes and regulatory frameworks. Modular desalination plants can support decentralised water infrastructure. Desalination expansion can also trigger demand-side water reforms to avoid rebound effects from increased water availability, forming a bridge to a sustainable and resilient future.