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Oil Market Report - December 2025
…mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb…
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Oil Market Report - June 2025
…3 mb/d and 83.7 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins in May were at their highest levels since 1Q24. However, the rally in crude prices in early June squeezed profitability levels as gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil cracks weakened.Russian crude and product exports fell by 230 kb/d m-o-m to 7.3 mb/d in May, down 380 kb/d y-o-y. As oil prices slid, revenues declined by $480 million m-o-m to $12.6 billion, a plunge of $4.0 billion y-o-y. May’s crude export revenues hit their lowest…
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Oil Market Report - October 2025
…while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date. Stocking up The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the…
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Lithuania 2025
Energy Policy Review Government action plays a pivotal role in ensuring secure and sustainable energy transitions. Energy policy is critical not just for the energy sector but also for meeting environmental, economic and social goals. Governments need to respond to their country’s specific needs, adapt to regional contexts and help address global challenges. In this context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) conducts Energy Policy Reviews to support governments in developing more impactful energy and climate policies.This Energy Policy Review was prepared in partnership between the Government of Lithuania and the IEA. It draws on the IEA’s extensive…
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Sustainable Transport Policy for Armenia: A Roadmap
As a part of the EU4Energy Programme, the Armenia Energy Policy Roadmap on Sustainable Transport presents a comprehensive, evidence-based framework for transforming the country’s mobility system into a sustainable and efficient transport system. The strategy seeks to deliver significant reductions in CO₂ emissions while strengthening regional connectivity, fostering economic development, and enhancing energy security. While Armenia has made notable progress in rolling out electric vehicles and electrifying its rail network, it still struggles with a high dependence on imported fossil fuels, a lack of data transparency and weak co-ordination among government agencies. This roadmap is structured to…
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Gas Market Report, Q2-2026
This edition of the IEA's quarterly Gas Market Report provides a comprehensive review of developments during the 2025/26 heating season and a special spotlight on the effects of the war in the Middle East on international gas markets. Amid the major supply shock caused by the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure, it examines the conflict’s implications for gas supply and demand at both the regional and global levels. The report also analyses the consequences for storage, shipping and prices – providing critical insights on evolving market trends.The loss of nearly…
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Oil Market Report - February 2026
…Petrochemical feedstock products will represent more than half of this year’s gains, compared with only a third in 2025 when transport fuels dominated growth.World oil supply plunged by 1.2 mb/d in January to 106.6 mb/d, as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, while outages and export constraints curtailed Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows. Following gains of nearly 3.1 mb/d in 2025, world oil output is now forecast to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, to 108.6 mb/d, with growth roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+…
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Oil Market Report - June 2026
…peace deal. Investor exchange holdings slumped in parallel, as positive price momentum reversed sharply and traders reduced positions in the face of extreme price volatility and higher exchange margins. New deal An interim agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a lifting of a US blockade on Iranian oil traffic. The biggest breakthrough in negotiations since the start of the conflict sent oil prices tumbling to their lowest levels since early March. While details of the deal, that is…
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Oil Market Report - April 2026
…trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Listen to the most recent episode of the Everything Energy podcast with senior oil market analysts Rebecca Schulz and David Martin, which draws on fresh data and analysis from the April OMR Highlights Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our global outlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’s Report and a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepest cuts in oil use have…
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Oil Market Report - January 2026
…continued slowdown in gasoline gains. Non-OECD countries will once again account for all of the growth in 2026.Global oil supply fell by 350 kb/d m-o-m to 107.4 mb/d in December, 1.6 mb/d below September’s record high. Lower output from Kazakhstan and a number of Middle Eastern OPEC producers was partly offset by a sharp rebound in Russian production. World oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.5 mb/d this year to 108.7 mb/d, following an increase of 3 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts…
