Background note on the natural gas supply-demand balance of the European Union in 2023

This background note was developed to inform the discussions at the Special IEA Ministerial on Gas Markets and Supply Security on 15 February 2023. It assesses the latest developments in European and global natural gas markets, taking into account the impacts of the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The analysis examines the key factors affecting the natural gas supply-demand balance of the European Union – and the risks that could lead to a supply-demand gap emerging. And it highlights the measures that can reduce natural gas demand in a structural manner to mitigate the European Union’s exposure to such risks.