World Energy Outlook 2018

The gold standard of energy analysis

World Energy Outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.

In this section


CO2 and other GHG emissions


The energy sector is the principal source of global greenhouse gas emissions. The World Energy Outlook 2018 contains updated projections for energy-related CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases.

In the New Policies Scenario, CO2 emissions keep rising gradually to 2040. Across sectors, there is particular growth in the transport and industry sectors. While emissions in advanced economies fall, that decline is more than made up by growing emissions in most developing economies.  In China, emissions grow slowly until around 2030 and then start to decline, in line with the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.

The global trajectory in the NPS is far from what is required to achieve the outcomes of the Paris Agreement. In contrast, the Sustainable Development Scenario is fully in line with holding the global temperature rise to well-below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The scenario sees CO2 emissions peaking soon and entering a steep decline to 2040.

	European Union	North America	Other advanced economies	China	India	Latin America	Africa	Other developing economies	Sustainable Development Scenario
2010	3.561551982	6.297867399	2.533370368	7.810996225	1.580000755	1.019860025	0.992491397	6.535164361	30.33130251
2011	3.41263932	6.095521166	2.622663975	8.584845521	1.664179481	1.034614252	0.996083096	6.751816843	31.16236365
2012	3.377361899	5.870345236	2.687605201	8.831236466	1.800002834	1.095382217	1.054655155	6.772245383	31.48883439
2013	3.291993864	6.007472339	2.684817679	9.205215818	1.850715738	1.122648829	1.101653931	6.838135574	32.10265377
2014	3.103631108	6.00198524	2.632442209	9.139465889	2.014055795	1.160707125	1.147927162	6.938172728	32.13838726
2015	3.145243992	5.882194776	2.637964177	9.117816739	2.02476899	1.137407467	1.141867098	6.993640403	32.08090364
2016	3.124953577	5.798071602	2.664461709	9.071093213	2.075454549	1.098780245	1.15590919	7.064356997	32.05308108
2017	3.148205954	5.727135399	2.730879648	9.254291771	2.194742747	1.120299758	1.185259881	7.219542712	32.5807653
2018	3.05565495	5.790344912	2.674879794	9.488938025	2.288789513	1.105248376	1.211415076	7.323825918	32.71733187
2019	3.004439322	5.78091638	2.640757577	9.561873578	2.383977295	1.106386717	1.234726919	7.458487764	32.62204493
2020	2.938167702	5.702420595	2.592557725	9.612594715	2.485089419	1.11320456	1.250128	7.568405545	32.24612668
2021	2.872817668	5.625764974	2.560292036	9.645721818	2.60148982	1.119291901	1.265226316	7.666514858	31.78543659
2022	2.831034683	5.553044253	2.523702618	9.655031182	2.721703999	1.121819714	1.285116959	7.766225911	31.27930334
2023	2.77992437	5.506689382	2.476309273	9.656440248	2.842792353	1.125463888	1.308181462	7.874179218	30.70696468
2024	2.722823784	5.484931095	2.443428373	9.689334355	2.961367366	1.129128795	1.327839063	7.990492569	30.15707734
2025	2.663463759	5.452598316	2.421812492	9.689377637	3.076094682	1.13641181	1.354237656	8.108414305	29.53513792
2026	2.584844147	5.41438336	2.411477179	9.704297555	3.195817135	1.146522987	1.377677177	8.226002345	28.8296239
2027	2.500194971	5.381739357	2.39157557	9.711874933	3.315672082	1.155506824	1.398875423	8.353283215	28.03544919
2028	2.417226377	5.356871731	2.371421127	9.706571754	3.436572655	1.165525047	1.42407886	8.467842462	27.21715926
2029	2.336752014	5.326158543	2.355613865	9.68514845	3.557533384	1.174230398	1.447127628	8.598074999	26.39101221
2030	2.249293024	5.282700116	2.338802488	9.647178721	3.673166703	1.182654722	1.472449024	8.729673101	25.4815813
2031	2.163727573	5.238961083	2.318788871	9.604643191	3.789095967	1.194804588	1.491259991	8.861085605	24.55861866
2032	2.083454165	5.200163585	2.295449509	9.563475275	3.901569453	1.209993785	1.51438061	8.995104062	23.61460635
2033	2.029602581	5.160121128	2.275595499	9.502369152	4.018137539	1.224914968	1.540042786	9.127197602	22.70777584
2034	1.977268086	5.132928411	2.261193339	9.435452442	4.129955814	1.240375474	1.568740171	9.25949913	21.804754
2035	1.917283297	5.115387064	2.249135018	9.373630204	4.241681003	1.257514283	1.597856909	9.404669988	20.98192906
2036	1.873326215	5.097546563	2.231056716	9.310208468	4.346672771	1.27289432	1.626314264	9.52859599	20.20649606
2037	1.836192878	5.081018916	2.219709911	9.250714882	4.450815256	1.28835494	1.653486381	9.66442683	19.50990154
2038	1.792814023	5.063926208	2.225733888	9.189887486	4.551092676	1.305166908	1.682592932	9.800107189	18.8397596
2039	1.756441483	5.046015047	2.213601236	9.123505831	4.649023079	1.322144115	1.709186692	9.937835127	18.20241743
2040	1.718836942	5.03077013	2.199235953	9.054166604	4.738022793	1.335495477	1.73743354	10.06738362	17.64690866
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"area",
		"height":"40%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"area":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			},
			"stacking":"normal"
		},
		"line":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			}
		}
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"pointFormat":"{series.name}"
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"CO2 emissions by region in the NPS"
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"GtCO2"
		}
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"tickPositions":[2010,2020,2030,2040]
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":3
	}, {
		"colorIndex":2
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5
	}, {
		"colorIndex":7
	}, {
		"colorIndex":8
	}, {
		"colorIndex":1
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"colorIndex":6
	}, {
		"color":"#666666",
		"lineWidth":3,
		"type":"line",
		"dashStyle":"shortDash"
	}]
}

Today, energy-related GHG emissions (including methane and nitrous oxide as well as CO2) amount to around 39 Gt CO2-equivalent. Three-quarters of this is accounted for by only eight source categories. The largest category by far is coal-fired power generation, accounting for 27% of emissions. Buildings make up nearly 9%, followed by about 8% each for gas-fired power generation and petroleum-fueled cars. Emissions from cement production and oil and gas operations account for 7% each, with trucks making up 6% and steel around 5% of the total.

In the SDS, energy-related GHG emissions fall to around 21 Gt CO2e. The same eight categories account for around 60% of emissions in 2040, but the split between them changes. Emissions from coal-fired power fall by 90% to account for only 5% of total emissions. Buildings become the largest emitter in 2040 (11%) followed by gas-fired power generation and trucks (around 10% each). Cement production accounts for 9% of emissions (of which the majority is process emissions). Emissions from cars fall by half, despite the number of cars increasing by more than 60% (of which about 50% are electric), and those with internal combustion engines (ICEs) have vastly improved efficiency. Oil and gas sector emissions reduce significantly, mostly due to improvements in the GHG intensity of supply.

	Coal generation	Gas generation	Cars ICE	Trucks ICE	Steel	Cement	Oil and gas	Buildings	Other
2017	10.53815919	2.964062202	3.083037076	2.412905577	2.002741716	2.694351348	2.636141	3.382354568	9.298426175
2040	1.079973326	2.162583636	1.542272137	2.104880266	1.286958114	1.940658261	0.5396854	2.298238632	8.163977928
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar",
		"height":"40%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"stacking":"normal",
			"borderWidth":0
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Energy-related GHG emissions from selected sectors, 2017 and SDS in 2040"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" GtCO2-eq",
		"valueDecimals":2
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"GtCO2-eq"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"type":"category"
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"colorIndex":3
	}, {
		"colorIndex":7
	}, {
		"colorIndex":8
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"colorIndex":6
	}, {
		"colorIndex":2
	}, {
		"color":"#ccc"
	}]
}

The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is lower than most published decarbonisation scenarios aiming at a long-term global average temperature rise of 1.7-1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels. What happens after 2040 is also critical for the climate outcome, and a continuation of the pre-2040 emissions reduction rate in the scenario would lead to global energy-related CO2 emissions falling to net zero by 2070 (for more information visit our SDS page).

To achieve the temperature goal, the Paris Agreement calls for emissions to peak as soon as possible and reduce rapidly thereafter, leading to a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks (i.e. net-zero emissions) in the second half of this century. These conditions are met in the SDS: global CO2 emissions peak around 2020 and then decline steeply to 2040, on course towards net-zero emissions in the latter half of the century.

From now until 2040 (the period covered by the model), the emissions trajectory of the SDS is at the lower end of other decarbonisation scenarios projecting a median temperature rise in 2100 of around 1.7 °C to 1.8 °C. It is also within the envelope of scenarios projecting a temperature rise below 1.5 °C, as assessed by the recent IPCC Special Report on 1.5 C.

Compare SDS to scenarios with a  temperature rise in 2100

Note: Scenarios drawn from the Scenario Explorer released alongside the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 C of global warming. See https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/

To place the world on the trajectory of the SDS, significant further policy action is needed. In 2015, a World Energy Outlook special report identified five opportunities that would achieve an early peak in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at no net cost to the economy:

  • boosting end-use energy efficiency
  • increasing investment in renewables
  • phasing out the least-efficient coal-fired power plants
  • phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
  • reducing methane emissions from oil and gas production

While not sufficient on their own to avoid severe impacts from climate change, these measures – if implemented in full – nonetheless could keep the door open for further action later and provide a bridge (hence the name Bridge Scenario) to an emissions trajectory consistent with long-term decarbonisation goals. WEO 2018 assesses progress against these measures and analyses their potential contribution to achieving an SDS trajectory.  Almost half of the emissions reductions needed in the SDS can be achieved by rapid implementation of these 5 key measures. Achieving the other half of the reductions requires deeper implementation of these same measures as well as extensive deployment of other clean energy technologies such as nuclear and CCUS.

Series										
2010	34.17448404	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		34.17448404
2011	34.9962676	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		34.9962676
2012	35.44435031	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		35.44435031
2013	36.03195415	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		36.03195415
2014	36.04807513	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		36.04807513
2015	35.9802664	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		35.98026645
2016	35.91477514	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		35.9147751
2017	36.51196493	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		36.51230107
2018	36.90357272	0.40002827	-0.228008932	0.023351691	0.03006839	0.015398035	0.118766957	0.037877464	36.50609085	36.50609085
2019	37.14517562	0.485481089	-0.167634848	0.084371214	0.140611804	0.106263077	0.158254769	0.081307757	36.25652076	36.25652076
2020	37.1861456	0.772837096	-0.165106226	0.113165534	0.294394969	0.151486037	0.173779661	0.170901993	35.67468654	35.67468654
2021	37.22191269	0.923816418	-0.049116956	0.234617326	0.440890957	0.206798791	0.231639721	0.233738534	34.9995279	34.9995279
2022	37.2803588	1.130423901	0.047413764	0.276305393	0.652898085	0.249468892	0.294029203	0.335078253	34.29474131	34.29474131
2023	37.35392075	1.336196727	0.197091012	0.379361924	0.838723125	0.284775165	0.367547919	0.440810027	33.50941485	33.50941485
2024	37.48001628	1.548355768	0.340853419	0.457619258	1.073243493	0.375548712	0.380144895	0.550888782	32.75336195	32.75336195
2025	37.58066605	1.740603785	0.501859866	0.541980434	1.302985658	0.484063559	0.384156307	0.715606696	31.90940975	31.90940975
2026	37.70892846	1.963064209	0.64866878	0.662788839	1.574795678	0.546658192	0.375264341	0.915321211	31.02236721	31.02236721
2027	37.8273994	2.148567497	0.807130906	0.796894935	1.878016357	0.60055127	0.381660437	1.164669754	30.04990824	30.04990824
2028	37.93080459	2.338798446	0.979382743	0.981247994	2.155981873	0.655881574	0.391437973	1.383842959	29.04423103	29.04423103
2029	38.03586084	2.549679203	1.153276326	1.104738356	2.396059746	0.70874671	0.379646261	1.700565061	28.04314917	28.04314917
2030	38.10275445	2.826946113	1.279601763	1.2243035	2.676158631	0.730108193	0.391088722	2.013980737	26.96056679	26.96056679
2031	38.15551294	3.099145981	1.403363682	1.332967187	2.934243732	0.701833673	0.375943233	2.311072807	25.99694265	25.99694265
2032	38.21950677	3.33530632	1.51107901	1.473624763	3.230919468	0.669592967	0.358673222	2.626660932	25.01365009	25.01365009
2033	38.29673313	3.592524491	1.628176169	1.603725474	3.492472359	0.633009829	0.33907715	2.940713693	24.06703397	24.06703397
2034	38.38562592	3.810709078	1.727951922	1.749442953	3.788222889	0.600562823	0.321696632	3.265527038	23.12151258	23.12151258
2035	38.49905902	4.007919936	1.818312215	1.883010684	4.068811461	0.571047903	0.305886713	3.579411329	22.26465878	22.26465878
2036	38.58741218	4.184495652	1.899278823	2.010193639	4.341586536	0.540825331	0.289697732	3.865189364	21.4561451	21.4561451
2037	38.70448205	4.369330772	1.98382291	2.129937005	4.601761418	0.506608742	0.271369323	4.108222321	20.73342956	20.73342956
2038	38.82684755	4.514503686	2.050642933	2.2572286	4.881882704	0.47176324	0.25270403	4.363177992	20.03494436	20.03494436
2039	38.92703202	4.653990171	2.114916196	2.39751054	5.146133504	0.443196464	0.237401991	4.563135654	19.3707475	19.3707475
2040	39.00186675	4.792916949	2.178724539	2.518961044	5.378304047	0.414652455	0.222112148	4.704953041	18.79124253	18.79124253
{
	"responsive":{
		"rules":[{
			"condition":{
				"maxWidth":700
			},
			"chartOptions":{
				"legend":{
					"enabled":false
				}
			}
		}, {
			"condition":{
				"maxWidth":800
			},
			"chartOptions":{
				"legend":{
					"layout":"vertical",
					"align":"right",
					"verticalAlign":"middle"
				}
			}
		}]
	},
	"chart":{
		"type":"area",
		"height":"40%"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"pointFormat":"{series.name}"
	},
	"legend":{
		"layout":"vertical",
		"align":"right",
		"verticalAlign":"middle",
		"useHTML":true,
		"itemMarginBottom":7,
		"y":-20
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"area":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			},
			"stacking":"normal",
			"lineWidth":0
		},
		"line":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			}
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"CO2 and methane reductions in the Bridge Scenario and SDS, relative to NPS"
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"GtCO2-eq"
		},
		"max":40
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"tickPositions":[2010,2020,2030,2040]
	},
	"series":[{
		"type":"line",
		"colorIndex":8,
		"zIndex":101,
		"name":"NPS"
	}, {
		"colorIndex":2,
		"name":"Efficiency and fossil fuel subsidy reform"
	}, {
		"color":"rgba(0, 176, 80,0.2)",
		"fillColor":"rgba(49, 134, 155,0.2)",
		"name":"     ...and additional in the SDS"
	}, {
		"colorIndex":0,
		"name":"Renewables and reducing least-efficient coal power"
	}, {
		"color":"rgba(0, 176, 80,0.2)",
		"fillColor":"rgba(0, 176, 80,0.2)",
		"name":"     ...and additional in the SDS"
	}, {
		"colorIndex":6,
		"name":"Reducing upstream oil and gas methane"
	}, {
		"color":"rgba(218, 129, 55,0.2)",
		"fillColor":"rgba(218, 129, 55,0.2)",
		"name":"     ...and additional in the SDS"
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5,
		"name":"Other: nuclear, CCUS, fuel-switching"
	}, {
		"type":"line",
		"colorIndex":0,
		"zIndex":100,
		"name":"SDS"
	}, {
		"color":"transparent",
		"enableMouseTracking":false,
		"showInLegend":false
	}]
}

Access to energy


In 2015, 193 Member States of the United Nations agreed as part of the Sustainable Development Goals on SDG 7, a specific goal to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030” – of which target 7.1 envisions universal access to electricity and clean cooking.  For nearly 20 years, the IEA has been at the forefront of international efforts to assess and understand the persistent energy access deficit and chart a pathway to Energy for All by 2030. The IEA is also chairing the next edition of the Tracking SDG7 report to be published in May 2019, a joint work of the SDG 7 co-custodian agencies (IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, WHO, and World Bank). Achieving modern energy for all by 2030 is possible, and the benefits far outweigh the costs.

Our updated data on energy access available in World Energy Outlook-2018 show that progress has been made worldwide.

For the first time, the number of people without access to electricity fell below 1 billion in 2017, according to the IEA’s most up-to-date data. It also shows that the number of people without access to clean cooking facilities has begun to gradually decline, a cause for celebration as this will also lead to a reduction in premature deaths related to household air pollution. An increased reliance on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and on improved biomass cookstoves underpins the decline.

Despite recent developments, however, progress remains uneven across the world. About 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa (or 57% of the region’s population) and 350 million people in developing Asia (or 9% of the population of that region) remain without access to electricity. Nearly 2.7 billion people lack access to clean cooking facilities, relying instead on biomass, coal or kerosene as their primary cooking fuel. Progress towards clean cooking has been very limited compared to electrification efforts.

Population without access to electricity (left) and clean cooking (right), 2000-17
	Sub-Saharan Africa	India	Other developing Asia	Other developing countries
2000	519.8464351	600.23907	459.3482619	84.91728098
2001	526.0771784	603.242114	451.7659567	77.54983594
2002	529.3618021	605.932692	443.8317785	69.88120407
2003	538.7648564	554.568014	438.5073974	80.36966981
2004	544.8022677	501.13052	432.794208	91.47535805
2005	554.7359442	484.4199846	424.3803144	84.45530013
2006	565.006586	466.8827604	415.130222	77.27126955
2007	574.7529964	448.5147162	405.6335405	69.74528904
2008	585.3636565	429.2969142	395.4450138	61.85839376
2009	595.6597987	409.20899	385.8435577	53.58692061
2010	595.680876	413.0319284	341.4304086	48.06404205
2011	610.4399537	416.6534282	312.465182	43.55834836
2012	626.4101679	383.1046752	314.500022	42.6144986
2013	640.2124863	348.4913991	287.8901744	40.69003251
2014	635.7022056	312.8770546	268.3091136	40.73001643
2015	625.9415471	276.3004721	213.343568	41.46441056
2016	610.179409	238.7753883	202.881487	39.01452045
2017	602.4830461	167.8220558	183.0751363	38.85743337
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"line",
		"height":"40%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"line":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			}
		}
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"credits":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" million",
		"valueDecimals":0
	},
	"title":{
		"text":null
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"million"
		}
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"tickPositions":[2000,2005,2010,2017]
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"colorIndex":8
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5
	}]
}
	Sub-Saharan Africa	India	Other developing Asia	Other developing countries
2000	606.3586895	787.6821332	1303.643229	100.6708628
2001	622.4415047	766.1067559	1306.228782	100.5712252
2002	633.3329488	771.038451	1299.807811	98.53984427
2003	642.0112119	775.6196116	1290.916444	96.90741123
2004	660.7783186	777.0338415	1305.974167	94.79056864
2005	681.6557512	755.1185562	1313.395852	93.06742499
2006	698.8443474	720.4263569	1323.604077	90.67925169
2007	716.5241415	737.3006229	1336.947709	87.90402902
2008	733.6157635	754.202609	1324.50842	84.43364506
2009	750.1196784	793.7278227	1290.213132	82.16017675
2010	763.5517904	833.7844637	1268.946335	78.14035289
2011	783.292884	874.312436	1242.953443	75.84006468
2012	799.7867835	840.6335763	1209.703291	75.22740072
2013	815.4463088	805.6219162	1150.160274	73.73972906
2014	832.4191433	769.3932544	1111.801874	69.4956929
2015	850.5587808	732.0229968	1057.489337	69.84788936
2016	872.7514043	717.5339378	1014.669876	68.87786976
2017	880.0102455	703.2116349	1003.955256	68.47514833
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"line",
		"height":"40%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"line":{
			"marker":{
				"enabled":false
			}
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":null
	},
	"credits":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" million",
		"valueDecimals":0
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"million"
		}
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"tickPositions":[2000,2005,2010,2017]
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"colorIndex":8
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5
	}]
}

To achieve universal energy access by 2030, a total of 1.2 billion new electricity connections are needed over the period, and around 2.5 billion people will need to gain access to cleaner cooking fuels (replacing the traditional use of solid biomass) for the first time ever. By contrast, efforts measured in the New Policies Scenario fall short: the number of people without access to electricity declines to around 650 million in 2030 but rises to 720 million in 2040, amounting to about 8% of the global population. The population without clean cooking only decreases to 2.2 billion in 2030 and 1.8 billion in 2040.

Progress since 2000 and outlook to 2030 for electricity (left) and clean cooking access (right) in the NPS
	2000	2017	2030	Population without access
China	98.6	1.4	0	0
India	43	44.47410029	12.52589971	0
Indonesia	53.4	41.43	5.17	0
Other Southeast Asia	67.72536357	20.65213411	11.12588109	0.496621222
Other Asia	32.07999718	43.59343447	16.37172881	7.954839548
Sub-Saharan Africa	22.55783364	20.78400672	17.24726144	39.4108982
Latin America	86.04571624	9.940164352	3.199312281	0.814807123
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"percent"
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":null
	},
	"credits":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":"%",
		"valueDecimals":1
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":null
		},
		"labels":{
			"format":"{value}%"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"type":"category"
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":3
	}, {
		"colorIndex":2
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"color":"rgba(0,0,0,0.1)"
	}]
}
	2000	2017	2030	Population without access
China	47.86999893	22.55667289	15.16897226	14.40435592
India	25.20000141	22.28937595	18.69990786	33.81071478
Indonesia	12.386	57.69384154	16.33972388	13.58043458
Other Southeast Asia	39.04440014	14.95212456	7.152290358	38.85118494
Other Asia	30.40226619	3.472823098	15.61696788	50.50794284
Sub-Saharan Africa	9.669996116	7.640332591	21.60820942	61.08146187
Latin America	81.07838872	7.618159328	2.647612658	8.655839291
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"percent"
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":null
	},
	"credits":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":"%",
		"valueDecimals":1
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":null
		},
		"labels":{
			"format":"{value}%"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"type":"category"
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":8
	}, {
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"colorIndex":6
	}, {
		"color":"rgba(0,0,0,0.1)"
	}]
}

Achieving universal energy access requires investment of $55 billion per year on average between 2018 and 2030. While this is almost double the investment for energy access projected under current plans, it represents only about 2% of the total energy-sector investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario. 82% of the additional investment needed in sub-Saharan Africa.

In both scenarios, renewables account for over 70% of new electricity connections until 2030, around half of which are via off- and mini-grid solar PV. In terms of clean cooking facilities, LPG is the most cost-effective solution in more than half of all cases, with most of the rest of the population moving to improved and more energy-efficient biomass cookstoves and others relying on electric stoves.

As most new electricity connections to date have been achieved through grid-connected electricity powered by coal, it is widely assumed that action on energy access comes at the expense of action on climate change. However, IEA analysis shows that pursuing a least-cost strategy for closing the energy access gap has no negative impact on the climate. Recent changes in technology costs and improvements in low-carbon technologies are set to make new electricity access connections less emissions-intensive than previously. Moreover, achieving universal access to clean cooking may actually create a net climate benefit, due to reduction in the methane emissions associated with the traditional use of biomass for cooking.

Air pollution


Air pollution is a major health and environmental issue. Outdoor air pollution is linked to 2.9 million premature deaths around the world each year. Household air pollution, mostly from the traditional use of biomass as a cooking fuel, leads to more than 2.6 million premature deaths a year.

In the New Policies Scenario, total emissions of all major pollutants are set to fall in absolute terms, even as energy demand continues to grow strongly. But the link between pollutant emissions and human health is complex, meaning that these declines are not sufficient to prevent continued severe health effects of air pollution. In fact, the number of premature deaths from outdoor air pollution actually rises in the NPS, rising to 4 million deaths a year by 2040. The impact of indoor air pollution also remains severe, with 2.2 million premature deaths seen in 2040, due in large part to particulate emissions from cooking smoke, a direct result of a lack of access to clean cooking facilities.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, emissions of all major pollutants fall significantly. SO2 emissions from the power sector are almost eliminated, while emissions from industry are reduced to less than half of today’s level. Emissions of NOX, which come mainly from the transport sector, nearly drop by half by 2040. Universal access to clean cooking helps almost eliminate residential PM2.5 emissions, leaving industry as the largest direct source of these emissions by 2040, followed by transport.

Air pollution emissions by sector and scenario, 2015 and 2040
Source: IEA analysis; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The fall in emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenarioresults in important health benefits. Half a million premature deaths linked to outdoor air pollution, and 1.9 million premature deaths from household air pollution are avoided relative to today. Far more people enjoy lower levels of fine particulates (PM2.5) in the air they breathe in 2040 than today. In China, India and Southeast Asia, for example, the number of people living with air quality worse than the lowest WHO interim target falls by 98% from today’s levels.

	Exceeds interim targets (>35 μg/m3)	Interim target 1 (25-35 μg/m3)	Interim target 2 (15-25 μg/m3)	Interim target 3 (10-15 μg/m3)	Air quality guideline (<10 μg/m3)
	811478780	242313041	226083238	46762959	37137531
	3476729	100828875	599543655	318526072	335540921
	801703303	262309951	158949426	58839256	11435084
	31150406	193666590	871472282	219616408	294509162
	111400318	56290531	146621917	115003726	198678874
	643782	13161	66567754	94018632	579256247
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar",
		"height":"45%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"percent"
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Exposure to fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) in selected regions, 2015, and in the SDS, 2040"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueDecimals":0,
		"pointFormat":"{series.name}: {point.percentage:.0f}%"
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":null
		},
		"labels":{
			"format":"{value}%"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"xAxis":[{
		"type":"category",
		"tickAlign":false,
		"categories":["2015","2040","2015","2040","2015","2040"]
	}, {
		"categories":["China","India","Southeast Asia"],
		"offset":0,
		"tickLength":40,
		"labels":{
			"x":-40
		},
		"plotLines":[{
			"value":0.5,
			"width":1,
			"dashStyle":"shortDash"
		}, {
			"value":1.5,
			"width":1,
			"dashStyle":"shortDash"
		}, {
			"value":2.5,
			"width":1,
			"dashStyle":"shortDash"
		}]
	}, {
		"categories":["1.38 billion people","1.4 billion people","1.31 billion people","1.61 billion people","632 million people","766 million people"],
		"opposite":true
	}],
	"credits":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"series":[{
		"xAxis":0,
		"colorIndex":7
	}, {
		"xAxis":0,
		"colorIndex":6
	}, {
		"xAxis":0,
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"xAxis":0,
		"color":"#ccc"
	}, {
		"xAxis":0,
		"colorIndex":1
	}, {
		"xAxis":1,
		"data":[0,0,0],
		"showInLegend":false,
		"enableMouseTracking":false
	}, {
		"xAxis":2,
		"data":[0,0,0,0,0,0],
		"showInLegend":false,
		"enableMouseTracking":false
	}]
}
Source: IEA analysis; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Actions taken to reduce CO2 emissions can also lead to strong improvements in air pollution emissions. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, measures taken primarily for low-carbon objectives, including renewables and efficiency, also have a strong effect on reduction of air pollution emissions, accounting for more than half of all reductions of NOx emissions and about 40% of SO2 emissions, relative to the New Policies Scenario The remaining reductions are mostly driven by pollution-specific measures. For PM2.5 emissions, energy access policies are an important driver of reductions, because indoor cooking smoke is currently the largest source of PM2.5 emissions globally.

In countries where reducing health impacts of air pollution is an urgent issue, low-carbon measures that reduce the overall quantity of fossil fuels being used – including energy efficiency measures on the demand side, and a shift to renewables on the supply side – are likely to be an important part of an action plan to tackle those health-related impacts.

Drivers of pollutant emissions reductions in the SDS relative to the NPS
Source: IEA analysis; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Water and energy


More than 2.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water today. More than half the global population lacks access to proper sanitation services. More than a third of the global population is affected by water scarcity. Roughly 80% of wastewater is discharged without being treated, adding to already problematic levels of water pollution.

Among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations, SDG 6 seeks to address these challenges and provide clean water and sanitation for all and improve the efficiency of water use by 2030. As the World Energy Outlook has shown in the past, water and energy questions are fundamentally linked. With both water and energy needs set to increase, the interdependencies between energy and water are likely to intensify.

How the nexus between energy and water is managed will have significant implications for economic and social development, as well as reaching the objectives of the SDGs. Given this challenge, the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario has added a water dimension to its analysis for the first time, focusing both on the water needs of the energy sector and the energy needs of the water sector.

The analysis shows that achieving universal access to clean water and sanitation would add less than 1% to global energy demand in 2030 and highlights a range of potential synergies between SDG 6 and SDG 7 (ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all). For instance, taking water supply needs into account when planning electricity provisions in rural areas can open different pathways for both, which in turn can bring down the cost of electricity for households. Another example: producing biogas from waste can facilitate cleaner cooking in households that currently rely on wood and charcoal for cooking.

	Without access to safely managed drinking water 	Without access to electricity 
Ethiopia	96.07	61.81940408
Uganda	95.69	81.36834408
Ghana	93.25	31.22373041
Côte d'Ivoire	76.91	68.50494365
Cambodia	84.05	50.19789376
India	50.53	17.86100126
Bangladesh	38.56	27.40053243
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"line":{
			"states":{
				"hover":{
					"lineWidth":0,
					"lineWidthPlus":0
				}
			}
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Share of population without access to electricity or water in rural areas"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":"%",
		"valueDecimals":1
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"max":100,
		"labels":{
			"format":"{value}%"
		},
		"title":{
			"text":null
		}
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":2
	},{
		"type":"line",
		"colorIndex":8,
		"lineWidth":0
	}]
}
Sources: IEA analysis, WHO/UNICEF JMP

Providing access to safely managed sanitation and halving the amount of wastewater released without being treated in the SDS could increase electricity consumption for urban municipal wastewater treatment by over 600 TWh over the period to 2030. Around 30% of this could be covered by the electricity generated from energy recovery.  However, if all new capacity for SDG 6 were built to be energy neutral or positive, the urban municipal wastewater sector could become a net energy producer.

"Business as usual" equals the amount of electricity consumed (less 60 TWh from energy recovery) from municipal wastewater treatment excluding SDG 6 in 2030 in the SDS. "Sustainable Development Scenario" equals the total electricity consumption from urban municipal wastewater treatment plants in the SDS if SDG 6 were achieved. "Energy neutral/positive case" is equal to the total electricity consumption from urban municipal wastewater treatment plants in the SDS if all new capacity built to achieve SDG 6 was energy neutral or energy-positive. The negative values indicate that more energy is generated than needed and can be sold.

SDG 6 is not just about supplying water and sanitation, it is also about ensuring that water is used more efficiently. In 2016, the energy sector withdrew around 340 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water and consumed roughly 50 bcm.  Withdrawal is the amount of water removed from a source; while consumption is the volume of water withdrawn but not returned to the source.

Among WEO scenarios, the SDS has the lowest water withdrawals in 2030 (275 bcm), making this pathway the best option of those assessed in the WEO for achieving SDG target 6.4 (increase water use efficiency), and for reducing the energy sector’s vulnerability to potential water disruptions, such as droughts, or the effects of climate change on water availability.

If not properly managed, however, the higher level of water consumption in the SDS (75 bcm)—10% higher than the New Policies Scenario —could constrain technology or fuel choices or increase the potential for competition over water resources in some regions. This underlines the importance of factoring water use into energy policy decisions.

	Withdrawal	Consumption
2016	337.5526609	47.27964146
2030: New Policies Scenario	332.9522758	65.70895328
2030: Climate only	346.8225052	77
2030: Sustainable Policies Scenario	272.4427	72.01017534
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		},
		"line":{
			"lineWidth":0,
			"states":{
				"hover":{
					"lineWidth":0,
					"lineWidthPlus":0
				}
			}
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Global water use by the energy sector, by scenario"
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm"
		}
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"type":"category",
		"plotLines":[{
			"value":0.5,
			"color":"#ccc",
			"width":1,
			"dashStyle":"shortDash"
		}]
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm",
		"valueDecimals":1
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":2
		},{
		"type":"line",
		"colorIndex":8
	}]
}
Results for 2030 for the climate only scenario are from WEO water-energy analysis from 2016

Investment


Global energy investment registered a slight decline in 2017 to $1.8 trillion, its third consecutive decline. Higher investment in several sectors, including energy efficiency and upstream oil and gas, were more than offset by lower power-sector investment. China was the main destination for energy investment, totalling more than a fifth of the total. As it did in 2016, the largest share of global investment went to the electricity sector, reflecting the growing role of electricity in the energy system.

In the New Policies Scenario, a pick-up in oil and gas investment to balance the near-term market, together with a slight rise in costs, mean that the share of spending on fossil fuels once again overtakes electricity in total supply investments. The United States accounts for almost 20% of total upstream oil and gas investment globally, followed by the Middle East with almost 15%.

Renewables continue to attract the largest share of investment in power generation. Continued declines in costs mean that a constant investment in dollar terms buys a steadily increasing amount of capacity.

Energy efficiency investment increases in all end-use sectors. The buildings sector accounts for almost 40% of cumulative investment in energy efficiency, nearly 60% of which supports more energy-efficient houses, appliances and equipment.

Average annual supply-side investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario through to 2040, including fuel supply and power supply, increases by about 15% from today’s level. However, this rise masks a significant reallocation away from fossil fuels towards renewables and other low-carbon sources, for both fuel supply and power generation. The story is different on the demand side. Annual demand-side investment needs are more than three-times higher than today’s level, driven in particular by investment in energy efficiency across end-use sectors and roll-out of EVs. This reflects the importance of energy efficiency in achieving energy transitions.

Energy policy in a time of transitions face a twin challenge: accelerate and broaden investment in cleaner, smarter and more efficient energy technologies, and ensure at the same time that all the key elements of energy supply, including electricity networks, remain reliable and robust through continued investment.

	Investment
Oil	20.1
Gas	14.3
Coal	1.7
Biofuels	0.7
Fossil fuels	3.8
Nuclear	1.8
Renewables	13.3
Networks	13.8
Other	0.5
Industry	2.2
Transport	15.3
Buildings	12.6
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"pie"
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"New Policies Scenario"
	},
	"subtitle":{
		"text":"60 trillion dollars"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":"%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"pie":{
			"innerSize":"50%"
		}
	}
}
	Investment
Oil	10.1
Gas	9.7
Coal	0.9
Biofuels	1.3
Fossil fuels	1.8
Nuclear	2.2
Renewables	18.9
Networks	13.6
Other	1.9
Industry	4.4
Transport	21.4
Buildings	13.7
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"pie"
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Sustainable Development Scenario"
	},
	"subtitle":{
		"text":"68 trillion dollars"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":"%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"pie":{
			"innerSize":"50%"
		}
	}
}

Policies will determine which way investment flows.

In the power sector, for example, over 95% of global investment is made in areas where revenues are fully regulated or affected by mechanisms to manage the risk associated with variable prices on competitive wholesale markets

	State-directed	Private	Regulated - generation	Regulated - networks	Wholesale market pricing	Efficiency	Other
Power supply			9.439730045	8.449962934	2.080487653		
Fuel supply	11.64056295	10.40102561					
End-use sectors						13.15932721	4.876302512
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar",
		"height":"45%"
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Cumulative investment needs in the NPS, 2018-40"
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"stacking":"normal",
			"borderWidth":0,
			"dataLabels":{
				"enabled":true,
				"format":"{series.name}: {point.percentage:.0f}%"
			}
		}
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"title":{
			"text":"trillion dollars (2017)"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"xAxis":{
		"type":"category"
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":9
	}, {
		"colorIndex":6
	}, {
		"colorIndex":2
	}, {
		"colorIndex":3
	}, {
		"colorIndex":8,
		"dataLabels":{
			"align":"left"
		}
	}, {
		"colorIndex":4
	}, {
		"colorIndex":5
	}]
	
}

Next: Q&A ▶