World Energy Outlook 2018

The gold standard of energy analysis

World Energy Outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.

In this section


Oil


After the fallout from the 2014 oil price crash, the continued expansion of tight oil production in the United States and the prospect of major structural changes in oil consumption underpinned a view that the oil price was set to stay low for a very long time.

The reality has been different. On the supply side, while tight oil has proved remarkably resilient, geopolitical events, the slump in Venezuelan output, and decisions by major exporters have also weighed on production prospects. Meanwhile, on the demand side, lower prices have pushed up oil consumption. The oil price rose above $80/barrel in September 2018 for the first time since 2014, although it has come down since.

Where do we go from here? The forces of change in oil markets remain strong. A maturing shale sector is now poised to become profitable; the cost of new upstream projects has come down; and sales of electric cars continue to break records. But elements of continuity are also formidable, and another boom and bust commodity price cycle cannot be ruled out. Volatility may be the new name of the game.

Outlook by scenario

  • New Policies Scenario
  • Sustainable Development Scenario
	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	22.25102	5.80443	13.19845	3.99234	7.36419	3.71492	30.51992
2025	22.02524	5.94455	12.1107	4.79147	8.40779	4.09232	35.84853
2030	21.03795	6.03493	10.8801	5.28609	8.96942	4.18056	37.99195
2040	19.25722	6.3014	8.72794	6.34123	10.5707	4.21148	39.51745
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	20.3238	7.29593	3.692	8.2162	31.2805	14.2598	7.71265
2025	26.1901	7.30647	4.02908	8.02253	32.7752	14.6443	6.95393
2030	26.3347	8.01631	3.51139	8.10056	34.7485	14.2183	6.70174
2040	25.3182	9.88508	2.77948	8.73882	37.2364	12.6251	6.78232
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In the New Policies Scenario (NPS), global oil demand growth slows but does not peak before 2040. Demand in 2040 is 106 mb/d, 11 mb/d greater than today. Demand in 2040 has been revised up by more than 1 b/d compared with last year’s Outlook largely because of faster near-term growth and changes to fuel efficiency policies in the United States. China becomes the world’s single largest consumer of oil in the 2030s and the largest net oil importer in history, importing over 13 mb/d in 2040. The United States dominates production growth to 2025: production increases by over 5 mb/d during that period to a peak of 18.5 mb/d. US production then starts to fall and OPEC steadily increases its share of total oil supply.

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	22.25102	5.80443	13.19845	3.99234	7.36419	3.71492	30.51992
2025	20.2057	5.38749	11.06115	4.55793	7.60898	3.9321	33.37247
2030	17.41159	4.86508	8.89942	4.80553	7.20827	3.82919	32.45616
2040	12.06297	3.99476	5.07747	5.0014	7.2349	3.44016	26.66307
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	20.3238	7.29593	3.692	8.2162	31.2805	14.2598	7.71265
2025	24.3075	6.53365	3.75848	7.09701	30.4646	13.0853	6.31844
2030	22.365	6.02318	3.05863	6.46757	30.0086	11.3143	5.49216
2040	18.5242	5.14694	2.23214	5.40573	24.7549	7.77122	4.13382
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), determined policy interventions to address climate change lead to a peak in global oil demand around 2020 at 97 mb/d. Demand peaks in nearly all countries before 2030. By 2040, cars that rely solely on gasoline and diesel are 40% more efficient than today; there are 930 million electric cars on the road (50% of the global car fleet); a quarter of buses are electric; and nearly 20% of fuels used by trucks are low or zero carbon. There are also major changes in most other sectors and as a result, total oil demand in 2040 in this scenario is 25 mb/d lower than today.

The only sector to register any growth is petrochemicals. Plastics recycling increases significantly from today’s levels which offsets the need for around 1.5 mb/d of oil demand in 2040. However, with few alternatives available, oil use as a petrochemical feedstock grows by 3.3 mb/d in the period to 2040.

On the supply side, lower demand and prices mean that production levels are down across the board. Although containing many of the least-cost suppliers, members of OPEC are assumed to maintain a policy of market management in this scenario (as in the other scenarios) and so their share of the market remains below 45% out to 2040.

Key Trends

	Advanced economies	Developing economies	International bunkers	Net change
Power	-0.899290263	-1.282787685	0	-2.182077948
Buildings 	-1.770745543	0.647409314	0	-1.123336229
Other	-0.350153268	0.579551635	0	0.229398366
Cars	-5.023821669	5.401423666	0	0.377601997
Industry	0.192303545	0.519326483	0	0.711630028
Shipping	-0.05952787	0.397994507	1.07396975	1.412436387
Aviation	0.156421945	0.904331273	2.324690886	3.385444104
Trucks	-0.801349386	4.660396675	0	3.859047289
Petrochemicals	-0.958655399	5.76927066	0	4.810615261
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	NPS	SDS
Gasoline	-0.288373631	-12.5202247
Diesel	2.816726914	-9.378658129
Fuel oil	-0.669833083	-3.233554695
Kerosene	3.006372536	-1.446190793
LPG/ethane	3.850600688	1.567750105
Naphtha	3.475811713	2.669919289
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	 OPEC 	 Non-OPEC	Share of OPEC at end of interval (right axis)
2000-05	4.2672	2.7529	43.67429291
2005-10	-0.135	1.3896	42.85620165
2010-15	3.0526	5.5857	42.15118267
2015-20	-0.8426	5.2893	39.33758197
2020-25	2.1608	1.1964	40.17839987
2025-30	2.1439	-0.434	41.61190182
2030-35	1.6909	-1.2352	43.08248243
2035-40	2.3116	-1.0335	44.78611294
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	Conventional crude	Tight oil	NGLs	EHOB	Other	NPS demand	SDS demand
2010	67.39546	0.490132108	12.67537	2.30988	0.608557892	83.4794	83.4794
2011	66.96874	0.979459085	13.32647	2.4956	0.671230915	84.4415	84.4415
2012	67.54916	1.767997979	13.95269	2.72953	0.775022021	86.7744	86.7744
2013	66.32233	2.669934444	14.3392	2.97781	0.915725556	87.225	87.225
2014	66.43634	3.665007228	15.11699	3.19756	1.011602772	89.4275	89.4275
2015	67.49057	4.340495898	15.75412	3.40961	1.122804102	92.1176	92.1176
2016	67.65022	4.011885529	16.17764	3.4267	1.144754471	92.4112	92.4112
2017	66.84832	4.379430728	16.68718	3.67941	1.186559272	92.7809	92.7809
2018	61.07551	3.703155682	14.57034413	3.3028	1.127231308	93.9306	93.4789
2019	55.92575	2.87269555	13.07782886	3.20268	1.070869743	95.3693	94.3667
2020	51.31215	2.45338485	11.88997076	3.1436	1.017326256	96.5644	94.7734
2021	47.16394	2.174269591	10.90404617	3.09923	0.966459943	97.2404	94.3273
2022	43.42269	1.969473168	10.04623904	3.05554	0.918136946	97.9373	93.8075
2023	40.03925	1.813427205	9.248129484	3.01254	0.872230098	98.5865	93.1486
2024	36.7758	1.690580488	8.542629546	2.9724	0.828618593	99.2544	92.4241
2025	33.81732	1.586904385	7.900965138	2.9329	0.787187664	99.9216	91.5649
2026	31.11591	1.495508624	7.313325805	2.89403	0.747828281	100.406	90.4873
2027	28.56067	1.413727648	6.774579257	2.85577	0.710436867	100.854	89.2814
2028	26.23853	1.339883366	6.280125151	2.80199	0.674915023	101.179	87.8981
2029	24.1254	1.272772806	5.825867159	2.74943	0.641169272	101.505	86.4437
2030	22.20023	1.211483869	5.408127229	2.69807	0.609110808	101.631	84.7294
2031	20.34805	1.155280905	5.023612247	2.6479	0.578655268	101.717	82.7855
2032	18.63821	1.103560362	4.669344226	2.59394	0.549722505	101.739	80.7768
2033	17.083473	1.055819715	4.342676543	2.53846	0.522236379	101.862	78.8766
2034	15.668505	1.011635285	4.041192488	2.48152	0.49612456	101.901	76.9536
2035	14.379775	0.968765872	3.762735993	2.42587	0.471318332	102.087	75.2074
2036	13.149761	0.92635593	3.505344383	2.37148	0.447752416	102.263	73.5443
2037	12.032648	0.88501907	3.26724504	2.3183	0.425364795	102.572	72.0396
2038	11.017425	0.843238762	3.046839847	2.26633	0.404096555	102.846	70.6217
2039	10.094239	0.800472059	2.84267283	2.21553	0.383891727	103.086	69.2535
2040	9.2541	0.754741869	2.653419648	2.16587	0.364697141	103.365	67.9689
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Natural Gas


Surging growth in the global gas trade – underpinned by the shale revolution in the United States and the rise of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – continues to accelerate the transformation of global gas markets. Although talk of a global gas market similar to that of oil is premature, LNG trade has expanded substantially in volume since 2010.

As a result, gas is more accessible today to a variety of market players, and is more responsive to short-term changes in supply and demand across regions. In recent years, policy efforts to combat air pollution have been a key driver of natural gas demand growth in emerging economies in Asia.

Outlook by scenario

  • New Policies Scenario
  • Sustainable Development Scenario
	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	968.784	174.219	612.51871	145.465	500.891	575.136	774.606
2025	1077.76023	183.07238	622.37042	174.78972	560.10016	592.48631	1072.68824
2030	1101.18503	204.07275	611.0215	210.79063	645.7761	600.67129	1247.82962
2040	1169.72416	270.80318	592.4257	308.32336	794.46178	634.86033	1579.2727
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	976.262	183.285	290.819	215.906	619.84	886.452	596.297
2025	1184.7	188.537	226.925	279.63	709.092	974.217	730.198
2030	1224.55	212.14	207.42	353.643	816.971	1016.23	810.438
2040	1327.63	292.555	202.562	497.582	1024.66	1103.82	949.668
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In the New Policies Scenario (NPS), natural gas demand in 2040 has been revised up by almost 100 billion cubic meters compared with last year’s outlook. The bulk of the revision is due to China, where gas demand grows rapidly, reflecting strong policy efforts to improve air quality. Developing economies in Asia account for half of the total demand growth through to 2040.

The United States accounts for 40% of total gas production growth to 2025, after which sources of growth become more diverse as US shale gas production flattens and unconventional gas production from other regions picks up. Low-cost US production keeps Henry Hub prices relatively low until the mid-2020s, but increasing levels of global LNG trade eventually begin to narrow the gap between regional prices.

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	968.784	174.219	612.51871	145.465	500.891	575.136	774.606
2025	1065.75317	169.70477	596.31937	165.59947	528.28951	574.23041	1080.78794
2030	1016.0887	172.28761	554.91491	182.35794	569.47322	537.79247	1270.78548
2040	813.57417	184.35649	450.16911	201.00671	544.71628	484.53476	1491.15579
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	976.262	183.285	290.819	215.906	619.84	886.452	596.297
2025	1161.07	182.701	226.446	274.304	673.292	941.281	730.198
2030	1140.53	187.348	206.441	325.668	725.702	922.941	808.974
2040	915.566	195.51	196.691	372.357	726.738	857.821	919.437
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gas demand continues to grow to 2025 before flattening out at around 4.2 trillion cubic metres. Gas is the only fossil fuel for which demand in 2040 is higher than today, and it becomes the largest fuel in the global energy mix.

The dynamics are different from those in the other scenarios. Gas demand for power generation declines as gas increasingly provides peaking and balancing power rather than baseload generation. Instead, gas increases its share in the industry and transport sectors, where there is a strong impetus to curb the use of more emissions-intensive fuels.

In more carbon-intensive systems where there is ample scope to displace coal, such as India, gas demand is higher than in the NPS. In Europe and North America, demand remains stable to 2025, but declines after that, reflecting improved efficiency in buildings and industry, and more rapid decarbonisation of power.

Key Trends


	China	Other Developing Asia	European Union	Japan and Korea
2017	106.223		349.427	162.465
2018	123.372		343.72	156.715
2019	142.105		352.853	150.903
2020	161.976	0.4507	362.326	146.955
2021	181.504	16.9343	372.43	145.223
2022	192.583	34.3205	381.825	143.753
2023	208.041	44.4929	395.923	141.78
2024	227.328	56.2171	402.385	142.091
2025	243.446	65.5113	408.974	144.833
2026	257.427	76.8285	410.078	147.108
2027	270.336	87.7415	409.837	146.77
2028	282.264	98.897	406.454	148.274
2029	290.438	109.75483	407.582	149.793
2030	297.862	120.83651	405.804	150.306
2031	305.467	132.93651	400.345	151.08
2032	314.366	145.89772	396.214	152.092
2033	322.051	158.844	392.981	153.266
2034	329.652	172.1054	389.496	155.215
2035	338.692	186.7511	386.105	157.241
2036	347.229	202.0511	383.495	159.025
2037	354.687	215.789	382.51	159.871
2038	361.258	230.2796	378.865	161.406
2039	366.752	243.7312	376.579	164.161
2040	369.473	259.9273	373.016	166.053
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	Power	Industry	Buildings	Transport
China	2.990800671	5.417917886	10.40810839	6.30580575
India	4.497393269	12.06296147	0.759357358	2.819603615
Southeast Asia	33.70339444	20.84638775	0.283045313	2.183331608
Pakistan and Bangladesh	59.34409602	44.57224129	17.58274648	12.92467152
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	China	India	Southeast Asia	Other developing Asia	Rest of world
New Policies Scenario	460.356405	113.4903477	118.6066791	96.7827304	857.7380263
Sustainable Development Scenario	448.834066	187.9304043	83.42609921	49.4837583	-337.3352866
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	Existing	Approved for investment	NPS
2010	350.722	0	
2011	357.897	0	
2012	362.253	0	
2013	374.021	0	
2014	389.954	0	
2015	400.691	0	
2016	456.452	0	
2017	480.126	0	480.126
2018	480.126	35.088	494.659
2019	480.126	88.5428	506.878
2020	480.126	126.2556	525.974
2021	480.126	128.826	564.858
2022	480.126	131.886	594.145
2023	480.126	137.19	624.26
2024	478.1676	158.474	644.302
2025	469.4636	158.474	658.149
2026	465.1116	158.474	685.471
2027	465.1116	158.474	706.896
2028	450.6548	158.474	718.187
2029	435.7628	158.474	727.057
2030	434.1308	158.474	740.859
2031	421.6868	158.474	749.279
2032	413.7988	158.474	754.788
2033	398.8388	158.474	756.468
2034	390.2708	158.474	773.507
2035	378.7108	158.474	787.182
2036	374.3588	158.474	815.285
2037	360.4868	158.474	836.009
2038	360.4868	158.474	859.73
2039	342.1268	158.474	878.109
2040	320.6116	158.474	889.288
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Coal


While both coal demand and prices declined after 2014, prices started to rebound in 2016 and coal demand made a comeback in 2017.

In Europe and North America, coal demand remains under pressure due to low electricity demand growth, strong uptake of renewables-based capacity and, in the United States, the availability of inexpensive natural gas. Nonetheless, elsewhere coal demand could be more resilient than some expect, especially among developing economies in Asia.

Outlook by scenario

  • New Policies Scenario
  • Sustainable Development Scenario
	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	513.2835714	48.26185714	474.6478571	144.5675714	4.655	224.1084286	3947.802857
2025	395.7298571	52.36114286	363.2057143	149.8651429	8.004285714	228.3084286	4185.854714
2030	372.0377143	52.74214286	289.948	149.3884286	9.358714286	219.3704286	4312.086
2040	341.1028571	53.87985714	240.3891429	142.2231429	12.91171429	211.3898571	4439.387714
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	582.24	87.9313	237.018	223.97	1.05599	384.164	3843.52
2025	464.81	85.1999	176.434	217.622	1.13686	389.561	4048.73
2030	432.514	86.2796	133.221	221.984	1.19293	389.79	4140.13
2040	405.727	87.6978	92.7996	228.315	1.32097	408.215	4217.4
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Coal demand in 2040 in the New Policies Scenario (NPS) has been revised down by some 3% compared with last year’s outlook. Downward revisions have been made for industrial coal use, as the shift from coal to alternative fuels in industry speeds up, and in the buildings sector where coal use almost disappears. Overall coal demand for power generation declines slightly in the NPS as moderate growth in coal-fired generation is offset by improvements in plant efficiencies. Modest growth in industrial coal consumption is due in part to rising use of coal as a feedstock for a range of conversion processes, notably coal-to-gas and coal-to-liquids projects in China. Overall coal consumption flattens around 5 400 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) and does not regain the peak seen in 2014.

The supply projections in the NPS mirror trends on the demand side, implying that global coal production peaked in 2014. However, there are stark regional differences in coal production prospects to 2040. Coal production in China, by far the world’s largest coal producer, declines at an average rate of 0.4% per year over the outlook period. India overtakes Australia and the United States in the early 2020s to become the world’s second-largest coal producer behind China. US coal production is projected to drop by 30% over the period to 2040, reflecting declining domestic demand and limited opportunities to tap into export markets.

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	513.2835714	48.26185714	474.6478571	144.5675714	4.655	224.1084286	3947.802857
2025	204.3108571	42.51571429	276.4555714	128.4847143	6.973142857	182.8608571	3508.721143
2030	83.02585714	34.45528571	162.8412857	106.6162857	6.908857143	146.2534286	2911.859571
2040	63.66442857	28.03585714	111.9454286	82.79371429	7.125428571	104.6251429	1883.540714
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	582.24	87.9313	237.018	223.97	1.05599	384.164	3843.52
2025	283.516	66.8828	138.089	206.831	1.09681	334.303	3319.58
2030	142.845	66.1576	61.7457	167.632	1.11979	262.586	2749.88
2040	98.586	14.4305	30.8796	128.175	1.16752	209.853	1798.65
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), coal consumption decreases steeply (-3.6% per year) and coal’s share in primary energy falls below 12% by 2040. Unabated coal generation is incompatible with the long-term emissions requirements of the SDS. CCUS provides a technology option to reduce emissions of the existing coal-fired power plant fleet through retrofits in the SDS. Some 210 gigawatts (GW) of coal plants are fitted with carbon removal technology by 2040, of which 170 GW are retrofits to existing plants.

Key Trends

	China	India	Other developing economies	Advanced economies
2000-17	1797.818045	363.4014023	214.9613858	-316.3561692
NPS	-357.764003	668.4980106	280.8337901	-507.6106564
SDS	-1702.365761	-35.30243514	-310.4553684	-1027.472694
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	Coal	Oil	Gas	Nuclear	Renewables
2017	3750.128959	4435.308785	3107.0984	687.66847	1991.501562
NPS	3808.898958	4894.1982	4435.843918	971.13208	3604.614062
SDS	1597.211579	3155.920589	3432.531236	1292.71632	4236.633692
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	Australia	Russia	Indonesia	South Africa	Colombia	Other
1990	96.073	6.1986	3.28323	48.0339	12.6226	142.79167
1995	126.488	5.73082	26.1194	57.2643	17.0502	142.83828
2000	173.465	13.5426	47.7795	65.78	33.0274	136.9405
2005	215.68	60.0071	108.719	66.3251	49.7919	106.5949
2010	271.923	100.974	220.678	62.0694	64.4421	123.1305
2017	349.549	144.452	308.124	67.8999	78.8661	153.309
2025	366.238	147.249	255.402	70.8118	70.9191	133.2401
2030	377.848	158.818	193.754	81.5399	71.009	123.8011
2035	398.652	177.931	181.947	78.7965	71.5779	125.6756
2040	428.461	188.965	181.866	89.1408	70.7677	129.4895
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	Existing mines	Existing mines: brownfield expansion	New mines: greenfield investment
2015	5263.14	0	0
2016	4935.03	0	0
2017	5094.62	0	0
2018	5014.45	83.2748	100.133
2019	4906.65	134.612	168.766
2020	4753.63	201.6	252.312
2021	4686.37	238.648	296.172
2022	4625.67	264.842	326.153
2023	4556.01	299.326	361.066
2024	4499.39	331.558	400.434
2025	4308.15	423.242	500.632
2026	4163.34	496.986	577.792
2027	3948.5	604.361	681.11
2028	3608.83	769.924	837.125
2029	3225.88	963.216	1005.8
2030	2940.3	1112.39	1140.56
2031	2695.39	1248.56	1254.7
2032	2350.78	1439.48	1406.9
2033	2079.41	1584.07	1542.78
2034	1775.01	1744.77	1692.63
2035	1443.06	1944.23	1821.89
2036	1099.93	2149.51	1967.86
2037	960.226	2235.85	2027.72
2038	765.8	2318.3	2145.83
2039	730.542	2333.32	2197.47
2040	620.408	2413.97	2262.64
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Renewables


Renewables have seen strong growth in recent years, with the power sector leading the way, and breaking records for levels of investment and deployment. But the uptake of renewables has been slower in industry, buildings and transport. Some renewable energy technologies such as solar PV and onshore wind are approaching competitiveness; others such as offshore wind are balancing between needing support and being competitive, while technologies such as tidal and wave energy still need support.

Outlook by scenario

  • New Policies Scenario
  • Sustainable Development Scenario
	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	1219.3391	851.2994	1347.1162	145.819	27.9984	255.4704	2504.1254
2025	1703.5262	1134.8204	1915.4664	316.5785	65.0719	289.4611	4219.888
2030	1911.5587	1300.3398	2324.0698	488.1651	132.7049	330.7604	5529.4988
2040	2340.9104	1632.7788	2784.9682	916.5747	393.6759	446.7027	8236.9695
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	386.0382	216.6454	587.9301	44.0013	18.3282	72.3351	1011.5416
2025	573.4177	285.981	795.4338	101.0726	36.8046	85.5952	1865.9557
2030	644.3794	327.553	956.2323	157.2828	65.5692	98.479	2468.5242
2040	766.0477	416.927	1070.722	305.8393	170.6204	131.8317	3642.0096
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In the New Policies Scenario (NPS), electricity generation from renewables nearly triples to 2040 and accounts for over 40% of overall generation. Direct use of renewables also grows in transport and heat applications, but their share remains more limited. The share of renewables in global heat supply increases in the NPS by five percentage points, to 15% in 2040. Around 60% of this increase is expected to take place in China, the European Union, India and the United States, which are today’s largest consumers of renewables-based heat. In transport the share of direct and indirect renewables more than doubles to around 8%. Demand for biofuels is projected to increase to 4.7 mboe/d, accounting for 6% of renewables use in transport in 2040, with the remainder being EVs powered by renewables.

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	1219.3391	851.2994	1347.1162	145.819	27.9984	255.4704	2504.1254
2025	1840.9335	1154.8934	1568.6558	410.2241	125.2718	321.325	5012.9226
2030	2445.9905	1348.5648	1947.0165	726.0745	275.706	443.5881	7373.2893
2040	3718.9597	1772.8798	2536.8727	1527.8542	956.0954	725.3886	12481.1515
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	386.0382	216.6454	587.9301	44.0013	18.3282	72.3351	1011.5416
2025	634.0336	293.4197	690.553	143.7071	63.5452	96.1043	2298.5659
2030	844.8906	343.8299	840.6013	276.5208	126.9611	135.4759	3401.7332
2040	1243.7796	462.5241	1033.697	596.8674	398.6185	215.9444	5656.4028
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), additional measures to incentivise investment in renewables-based electricity generation, biofuels, solar heat, geothermal heat and electrification push the share of renewables to two-thirds of the power mix, 25% in heat and 22% in transport in 2040 (including indirect use in transport and heat). In the SDS, the contribution of renewables to heat supply grows at a much faster rate, reaching 1 100 Mtoe by 2040. Demand for biofuels grows to over 7 mboe/d in 2040.

Key Trends

	Wind 	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Hydro	Other
Middle East	8.879551313	21.67318699	0.905767367	1.637034509	3.81851904
Southeast Asia	4.762089884	17.83340576	3.355803971	14.91638299	2.445073522
Africa	7.978020778	28.60698535	1.559094591	13.40204694	4.785083087
India	17.37195651	37.6881164	1.100782097	5.452263531	0.438909509
United States	23.74161039	30.47734821	2.82287165	4.260550224	1.742677491
World	20.41347076	30.28154793	2.578164428	8.729734162	1.6648903
Japan	7.728698067	41.22914864	3.436974522	8.467552396	3.914525668
Central and South America	17.04823384	15.39303777	4.96371091	27.96434181	1.604476526
Korea	23.23500226	39.62796996	2.525530493	1.244115888	1.077470536
China	25.69420091	39.94428775	2.158626326	8.517654258	0.853566561
European Union	39.54078195	27.52499024	5.067613497	5.404309474	2.441095643
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	Wind onshore	Wind offshore	Bioenergy	Solar PV	Concentrating solar power	Other
2007	10.88743818	0.374491935	10.28542558	3.049585098	0.166432905	1.666688465
2008	9.71805576	0.380537747	10.23054084	5.683217035	0.206793809	1.36124186
2009	16.99302903	0.62191964	13.57379032	10.47796288	0.24487399	1.935581064
2010	18.66039356	0.918163245	15.78897325	15.4353084	0.516987317	1.847182132
2011	21.62031205	1.354153471	16.29259625	27.25568282	0.850609038	1.899075554
2012	25.86605922	1.813228018	17.609878	36.46317592	1.425782203	2.015024786
2013	28.32490583	2.764478982	19.88313672	46.28101321	1.723207761	1.972571599
2014	32.95002339	3.730165831	22.02510606	53.63749522	2.021217418	1.960450883
2015	39.05079853	1.998814511	19.75270336	53.55871861	1.9532429	2.13477345
2016	43.89511685	2.246770869	22.30048451	67.72980025	1.8877297	2.783973359
2017	44.35847407	2.270487801	20.72576813	71.47230103	1.707778996	2.349122697
2018	37.39298704	6.968413745	23.04555862	74.89773978	2.156526338	4.190973741
2019	40.4202385	9.219164868	25.74376249	81.05102162	2.579458363	4.758383386
2020	42.3206919	10.87101935	27.45431882	88.4796708	2.7827903	4.73314338
2021	44.9339045	12.55816001	29.03176598	93.209854	3.1532866	4.934160563
2022	47.0877491	14.89330522	30.25367185	98.4774562	3.4013708	5.404680549
2023	49.0226201	16.91857989	31.53783596	103.5159816	3.6762235	5.799702947
2024	51.2164976	19.8915312	33.15753028	103.7920363	4.42748688	6.292028617
2025	53.4358993	22.89318344	34.69144966	104.2174469	5.1191945	6.932025046
2026	55.5349335	25.89758523	36.07472583	104.8250294	5.84494077	7.342401115
2027	57.897145	29.01649267	37.62355372	105.9927048	6.6213733	7.983533887
2028	60.761776	32.41490225	39.19404887	107.2458766	7.4788311	8.660808726
2029	64.038464	36.20110109	40.44748721	108.7068256	8.3248883	9.160037983
2030	67.2941231	40.20541695	40.86033718	109.5485348	9.209314	10.40332564
2031	68.8950206	43.03335725	42.77463307	106.3867645	10.1729887	11.15402205
2032	70.1272733	45.26480397	44.2530169	103.1742783	11.1184849	11.75184782
2033	71.26958944	47.32501588	45.45251096	103.0013555	12.0680589	12.54973259
2034	71.73301746	48.82423058	46.98560257	102.6206978	12.9334957	13.35015456
2035	73.3722367	50.87079544	48.09532924	104.4104848	13.6491535	14.35962193
2036	70.8431587	50.19925247	46.68669622	100.4463221	13.67032102	15.34168961
2037	68.85916185	52.09445099	48.95966062	92.35019374	14.50831496	16.16320088
2038	66.875165	53.98964951	51.23262502	84.2540654	15.3463089	16.98471214
2039	66.764094	53.70886182	52.35196228	80.4282942	16.1364464	17.82309946
2040	65.923829	53.14986397	52.4777772	77.8203401	15.8660714	17.67556087
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	Biofuels	Renewable-based electricity	Share in transport (right axis)
2010	56.127464	4.788586759	2.593402291
2011	59.065707	5.083947897	2.68745155
2012	66.024253	5.401007971	2.948858593
2013	71.336933	5.972797367	3.102297068
2014	74.725982	6.286956654	3.19274116
2015	78.506576	6.622900061	3.257096288
2016	81.826567	7.318564022	3.33906075
2017	86.08174608	7.870635776	3.459487166
2018	91.8245632	8.767369484	3.640186733
2019	97.59248189	9.654760857	3.813804429
2020	102.5066908	10.54268337	3.967354926
2021	106.7372874	11.57495048	4.095207832
2022	111.4754061	12.80929145	4.244237039
2023	117.4294454	14.1958472	4.430216265
2024	123.9174262	15.83277728	4.630658548
2025	130.2922619	17.75368845	4.83297236
2026	136.7742716	19.89334996	5.049601542
2027	143.209142	22.23156242	5.269787685
2028	149.5439632	24.83707202	5.495285264
2029	155.5855132	27.71092813	5.718100616
2030	160.9823161	30.97634975	5.941042902
2031	166.6713149	34.38167169	6.173016688
2032	171.9678328	37.83882542	6.396464502
2033	177.5622062	41.3714409	6.617935421
2034	182.8814108	44.87554726	6.833502801
2035	188.4539818	48.57091873	7.047341008
2036	194.2892229	52.4785305	7.270101067
2037	200.4488853	56.50885764	7.496987677
2038	206.781306	60.63932587	7.725238546
2039	213.1599425	64.82276745	7.950897149
2040	219.5391431	69.08840086	8.175246336
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	Potential sustainable feedstock	Increment in SDS	Biofuels in NPS
2017	9.849909389	0	0
2025	8.628128823	0.360138194	0.72885655
2030	8.150822278	0.558922853	0.871468184
2035	7.926727693	0.522424013	0.989511035
2040	7.535992301	0.422580008	1.12580801
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Energy efficiency


Energy efficiency is one of the cornerstones of any strategy to guarantee sustainable and inclusive economic growth. It remains one of the most cost-effective ways to enhance security of energy supply, to boost competitiveness and welfare, and to reduce the environmental footprint of the energy system. Not only can the growth of carbon emissions be tempered by the more efficient use of energy but energy efficiency can also improve local pollution and contribute to reducing the millions of air-pollution related premature deaths each year, and keep consumers energy bills in check.

Outlook by scenario

  • New Policies Scenario
  • Sustainable Development Scenario
  • Efficient World Scenario
	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.13	0.12	0.18	0.11
2025	0.1	0.08	0.07	0.11	0.11	0.16	0.08
2040	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.08	0.09	0.12	0.06
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2017	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.13	0.12	0.18	0.11
2025	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.09	0.1	0.15	0.08
2040	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.07	0.1	0.04
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			"text":"toe/$1000 PPP"
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), the systematic pursuit of economically viable opportunities to improve efficiency keeps the increase in global final energy consumption to around 250 Mtoe in the period to 2040, compared with nearly 2 900 Mtoe in the New Policies Scenario (NPS). In the SDS, energy intensity declines by 3.4% a year, compared with 2.3% in the NPS from 2017 to 2040.

In the SDS, thanks to strong efficiency policies including performance standards and building codes, energy consumption in the buildings sector falls by around 190 Mtoe over the outlook period. Even though growth in industrial energy demand slows in the NPS, growth in the SDS slows even further, to an annual average of 0.5%. Finally transport demand in the SDS decreases by 6%, despite a large increase in demand for mobility.

This year’s analysis includes an update of our the Efficient World Scenario (EWS), demonstrating once more that tackling the barriers to energy efficiency investment can unleash this potential and bring significant gains for energy security, economic development and the environment.

In the new EWS, a 3% annual rate of improvement means that the primary energy intensity of GDP is halved by 2040. This is a considerable step up from the average rate of intensity improvement of 2.3% seen in the NPS. It has major impacts on energy consumption of every end-use sector.

To explore the Efficient World Scenario in more detail, visit Energy Efficiency 2018.

Key Trends

	1990-2010	2010-2017	2017-2030	Additional change in SDS	2016-2017
World	-1.369575745	-2.205016133	-2.441769359	-1.170150979	-1.691906671
North America	-1.638697544	-2.314259623	-1.883901651	-0.974048795	-2.548548508
Central and South America	-0.427096428	-0.026667276	-1.486026457	-0.979515723	1.202614803
Africa	-0.917170256	-0.415462513	-2.116452841	-3.375456463	-0.742842795
Middle East	1.301714392	-0.516609837	-1.348378228	-1.030807144	0.571354477
Europe	-1.750865694	-2.518262472	-2.524793699	-0.567273959	-0.802450028
Eurasia	-1.928451529	-0.740652497	-1.914889205	-0.688089712	1.198190743
Asia Pacific	-1.426575559	-3.265872118	-3.100038045	-1.182576182	-2.798769224
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	Observed	Without energy efficiency	Without additional electrification since 2000
2000	8405.931161	8405.931161	8405.931161
2001	8445.599694	8488.662587	8426.538547
2002	8639.902586	8741.147587	8583.499753
2003	8778.422715	8938.190677	8719.564708
2004	8981.42207	9272.072226	8904.286838
2005	9183.870331	9631.955403	9077.709189
2006	9286.621621	9915.732179	9111.908237
2007	9497.106946	10244.59528	9281.175285
2008	9479.583722	10237.24589	9271.58972
2009	9112.379204	10000.19868	8830.247274
2010	9513.508868	10313.58991	9210.559061
2011	9485.5193	10568.09139	9143.634115
2012	9463.769866	10544.73768	9141.380805
2013	9513.327953	10672.70609	9170.090562
2014	9459.260443	10857.20176	9100.729425
2015	9482.930485	11013.31639	9153.08946
2016	9615.570075	11210.28945	9270.10933
2017	9687.07667	11450.05288	9340.764102
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