Energy System and Scenario Modelling

Course content

This module explores the principles, methods and techniques employed to generate comprehensive medium to long-term  energy system projections as presented in the IEA World Energy Outlook. Its objective is to familiarise course participants with the complex inputs and analysis necessary to produce  plausible scenarios in order to inform policy decisions.

More specifically, the module covers:

  • Introduction to the IEA’s World Energy Model (WEM)
  • Input requirements - sources of energy and economic statistics; assumptions used
  • Scenario development – parameters, accuracy and sensitivity; business-as-usual vs. climate-friendly scenarios
  • Country-wide energy demand modelling – by sector and fuel
  • Power generation modelling - technologies and fuel mix needed to meet future demand
  • Transport sector modelling - by mode of transport
  • Oil, gas and coal production modelling
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions modelling

Why is this topic important?

Energy models are being increasingly used to provide insights into how  energy systems may evolve in the years ahead. The formulation of policy and  strategy requires sound indications of what to expect in the long-term. It also  benefits from a greater transparency of how key elements of the complex energy  system influence energy demand and supply trends – macroeconomic trends,  demographics, energy prices, resource availability, policy and regulatory  developments, technology, etc. –. Understanding the analysis, scenarios and results of the acclaimed IEA World Energy  Outlook (WEO) would enhance national energy planning.

IEA’s credentials – why  learn from us?

Since  the IEA was first established it has continued to build up its expertise in  energy system and scenario modelling. For nearly two decades, the IEA has been  producing medium to long term energy projections using its in-house World  Energy Model (WEM). These projections underpin the IEA’s World Energy Outlook publication which has received numerous awards  for analytical excellence.

Who will benefit from these modules?

This module is targeted at:

  • Professionals in government and industry with a background or involvement in energy statistics, energy economics or energy modelling

What will participants gain?

This course provides participants with a comprehensive introduction to bottom-up energy system and scenario modelling. It therefore offers a solid foundation for understanding, using and potentially developing energy models and scenarios. After attending the course, participants  are able to better assess the strengths, but also shortcomings of energy models  and thus interpret the results in a more informed way. In particular, users of  the World Energy Outlook publication are given the opportunity to explore the means by which the projections are  generated, including key assumptions and data requirements. This experience will assist their work at the national level in their home country, as well as enhance their interactions internationally.

Module structure

Training Formats

Module Length

Group Size

  • Lectures, presentations and interactive discussions

  • Practical exercises - developing a simplified forecasting model

1-2 days

(depending on the training
objectives of each course)

20 people