Oil

Oil markets are still adapting to the changes set in motion by the extended period of high prices that fostered the emergence of tight oil in the United States. How oil demand evolves from here, and the prospects of a peak in demand, will be determined by a variety of factors including oil prices, the economic transition underway in major demand centres (most notably China), the pace of fossil-fuel subsidy reform, the speed at which disruptive technology and business models emerge in the transport sector and prospects for the two most stubborn sources of oil demand growth: petrochemicals and road freight.

	 Demand 	 Supply 	 Total Stock Change and Misc 
1Q14	92.3	92	-0.3
2Q14	92.4	93	0.5
3Q14	93.6	94.1	0.6
4Q14	94	95.3	1.3
1Q15	93.6	95.1	1.5
2Q15	94.6	96.3	1.8
3Q15	96.2	97.2	1
4Q15	95.5	97.3	1.8
1Q16	95.5	96.6	1.1
2Q16	95.8	96	0.2
3Q16	96.8	96.9	0.1
4Q16	97	98.2	1.2
1Q17	96.6	96.6	-0.1
2Q17	98	96.9	-1.1
3Q17	98.4	97.9	-0.6
4Q17	98.3	98	-0.3
{
	"title": {
		"text": "Demand/Supply Balance"
	},
	"subtitle": {
		"text": "Click a category in the legend to hide/show on the chart"
	},
	"tooltip": {
		"shared": true,
		"valueSuffix": " Mb/d"
	},
	"chart": {
		"type": "line"
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	"plotOptions": {
		"series": {
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			"marker": {
				"enabled": false
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	"yAxis": [
{
			"title": {
				"text": "Mb/d"
			}
		}, {
			"title": {
				"text": "Mb/d"
			},
"opposite": true
		}
	],
	"legend": {
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	"series": [{"zIndex": 1}, {"zIndex": 2}, {
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}

Note: For scenario purposes only, IEA assumes OPEC Production remains unchanged to end-4Q17

Our work on Oil