Lighting

Tracking Clean Energy Progress

🕐 Last updated Wednesday, 13 March 2019

On track

In 2018, sales of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) appear to have reached a critical milestone for energy-efficient lighting, reaching the same share as fluroscent lamps in residential lighting sales. Costs continue to decrease sharply, with a growing number of companies manufacturing enhanced LED lamps and luminaires across a broader choice of products. Sales of LEDs are on track to meet the SDS target, although this still requires LEDs to gain market shares not only in new builds but also in the lamp replacement market.


Residential lighting sales by type

LEDs have experienced terrific growth recently but this remarkable trend must continue.

	LEDs	Fluorescents	Others
2010	0.690688105	34.61280451	64.69650739
2011	1.004630434	39.37415888	59.62121069
2012	2.164673975	40.51036133	57.32496469
2013	4.127005866	44.18449574	51.68849839
2014	7.585012225	50.12553362	42.28945416
2015	13.87565533	52.18759758	33.93674709
2016	25.43430602	50.44920078	24.1164932
2017	31.6271149	46.18019073	22.19269438
2018	40.40575877	41.78853767	17.80570356
2025	68.12166139	27.28750395	4.590834664
2030	80.14465501	19.65371644	0.201628549
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Demand for lighting has continued to increase, driven by strong growth in building floor area and rising income in developing countries.

The phase-out of incandescent lamps a decade ago has significantly improved lighting efficiency (measured in luminous efficacy by lumens per Watt, or lm/W). However, the residential market, especially for lamp replacements, still continues to be dominated by sales of halogen and fluorescent lamps rather than by LEDs, which are more efficient.

Typical efficacy of residential lighting

LEDs are providing more light for less electricity

	LEDs	Linear fluorescents	Compact fluorescents	Halogens	Incandescants
2010	68	95	59	15	13
2011	72	96	59	15	13
2012	75	97	59	15	13
2013	79	98	59	15	13
2014	83	98	60	15	13
2015	86	99	60	15	13
2016	90	100	60	15	13
2017	96	101	60	15	13
2020	110	103	61	15	13
2025	130	106	62	15	13
2030	144	108	63	16	13
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LED efficacy has improved considerably in recent years. Efficacy of LEDs typically available on the market for residential use is often above 90 lm/W, depending on the model (e.g. directional, unidirectional, tubular). LEDs are likely to reach an average efficacy of 160 lm/W by 2030. Some products for commercial use have already reached these levels.

Regulatory bodies have taken advantage of the LED market shift to introduce new tools that promote deployment of LEDs and accelerate RD&D.

The European Union has put in place Ecodesign requirements for directional and non-directional household lamps, as well as for the tertiary sector. Labelling programmes informing consumers about the higher efficiency of LEDs have also been applied in many markets, including China, the United States and India, where the Energy Efficiency Labelling Scheme for LED lamps entered into force in July 2015.

Recent trends in India suggest that there is major potential to deploy LEDs rapidly on a large scale, if the right financing and market mechanisms are in place. India is now the biggest market for LEDs, thanks to the national UJALA programme (Affordable LEDs for All), which uses bulk procurement to offer bulbs that are 50% more efficient than other lamps typically available. More than 320 million LED lamps have been sold since 2015, out of a targeted 770 million by March 2019.


Tracking progress

Recent shifts to LED lamps are helping to decouple growing demand for lighting services from energy consumption, with LED market share hitting 40% of residential lighting sales in 2018.

LED performance also continues to improve – with market averages 45% higher in 2018 than in 2010. In many markets, the efficacies of LEDs available for residential use already exceed 110 lm/W.

Conversely, sales of incandescent lamps, with efficacies around 13 lm/W, have decreased to less than 5% of the market. Halogens and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) peaked in 2015 and have since declined to about 50% of the residential market.

Current trends suggest the market is on track to meet the SDS goals. However, to increase the share of LED sales to the necessary level of more than 65% of the residential market by 2025, countries should update their policies to keep pace with the expected horizon, which is drastically higher than 5 years ago. Countries should also extend phase-out policies to halogen lamps, which are only 5% more efficient than incandescents.

Some governments are already working on new minimum performance requirements to seize the energy-efficiency opportunity offered by LEDs.

In 2016, Australia and New Zealand released a draft of minimum energy performance standards for LED lighting that aim to achieve minimum efficacies of 110 lm/W in 2020 and 120 lm/W in 2030 for linear LED lamps and large integrated LED luminaires.

United for Efficiency, led by the UN Environment Programme, is also updating its model regulation for lighting and performance-based targets for developing countries. More countries should take advantage of this momentum for LEDs to represent 80% of the market and produce around 160 lm/W by 2030. This includes greater penetration rates in the lamp replacement market.

As LEDs become more efficient and more affordable, their increasing use in decentralised energy systems is growing into a success story for energy access.

Since 2010, 130 off-grid solar-based lighting devices have been deployed, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. In 2016, 94% of them were pico-solar installations with energy-efficient LEDs and mobile phone charging. However, pico-sales decreased in 2016, while plug-and-play solar home systems are emerging.


Innovation

The IEA’s new Innovation Tracking Framework identifies key long-term “technology innovation gaps” across the energy mix that need to be filled in order to meet long-term clean energy transition goals. Each innovation gap highlights where R&D investment and other efforts need improvement.

Explore the technology innovation gaps identified for lighting below:

Why is this RD&D challenge critical?

  • OLEDS are - unlike LEDs - made from organic carbon based material.
  • The power sector is today the biggest contributor to global CO2 emissions and lighting consumes one fifth of produced electricity.

Key RD&D focus areas over the next 5 years

  • Linking LED lamps with Building Energy Management sensors to allow for lighting to become energy service tools.
  • Integrated motion & thermal sensors in the lamps directly.
  • Reduced costs.
  • QR PSR PWM controllers for LED lighting with Power Factor Control (PFC) function.

Key initiatives

EU SOLEDLIGHT, ELQ-LED exploration of quantum material as light emitting sources, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Why is this RD&D challenge critical?

The power sector is today the biggest contributor to global CO2 emissions and lighting consumes one fifth of produced electricity.

Key RD&D focus areas over the next 5 years

Improve lifespan, material resistance (towards water for example) and reduce costs.

Key initiatives

EU SOLEDLIGHT, ELQ-LED exploration of quantum material as light emitting sources, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Explore all 100+ innovation gaps across 38 key technologies and sectors here.