Tracking Power

Not on track
Charles Devaux Ibtnswmmthe Unsplash

Solar PV

On track

Solar PV power generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2000-2030

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Overview

Although capacity additions remained flat in 2018, solar PV generation increased 31% in 2018, and represented the largest absolute generation growth (+136 TWh) of all renewable technologies, slightly ahead of wind and hydropower. Despite recent policy changes and uncertainties in China, India and the United States, solar PV competitiveness improved. Solar PV is still on track to reach the levels envisioned in the SDS, which will require average annual growth of 16% between 2018 and 2030.
Tracking progress

Power generation from solar PV is estimated to have increased by more than 30% in 2018, to over 570 TWh. With this increase, the solar PV share in global electricity generation exceeded 2% for the first time. It remains the fourth-largest renewable electricity technology in terms of generation, after hydropower, onshore wind and bioenergy.

In 2018, solar PV capacity additions globally were 97 gigawatts (GW), accounting for around half of total net renewable capacity growth. Solar PV capacity additions had doubled from 2016 to 2017, but in 2018 they remained stable as a result of policy changes and uncertainties in key markets such as China, the United States and India. Average selling prices of solar PV modules continued to decline by around 10% globally.

Despite slower capacity growth in key markets in 2018, solar PV is well on track to reach the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) level by 2030, which will require electricity generation from solar PV to increase 16% annually, from 570 TWh in 2018 to almost 3 300 TWh in 2030.

With greater cost-competitiveness and continuous policy support, robust solar PV growth is expected in the next five years, led by China, the United States, India and Japan. Growth in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa is also expected to accelerate because of improved economic attractiveness and continued policy support.

In China, solar PV capacity additions slowed to 44 GW in 2018, compared with the exceptional growth (53 GW) in 2017 when the government phased out feed-in tariffs and introduced deployment quotas in June 2018 to control costs and tackle grid integration challenges. Overall, this policy shift is expected to make solar PV technology more cost-competitive within and outside China, leading to more sustainable development over the longer term.

Net global solar PV capacity additions, 2016-2018

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Growth in the United States was stable, with around 10.5 GW of solar PV becoming operational in 2018 as a result of federal tax incentives and state-level policies. However, the corporate tax reform that affects the value of tax equity and import tariffs on solar PV modules has increased uncertainty over the economics of new solar projects. Some developers therefore delayed project commissioning in order to get more clarity on the new tax regime and the price of PV modules after the introduction of tariffs.

Innovation gaps

Innovation in solar power needs continued focus on increasing the performance of commercial PV systems and a shift to cell and technologies that are now only in the pipeline. At higher penetrations, innovation can enable PV to contribute to their own integration through smart grid capabilities, which can mitigate the impact of incidents on the grid. Innovation in digital technologies applied to solar PV systems can also deliver a higher share of mini- and off-grid systems and increase energy access in developing countries.

The wide array of system designs now available – off-grid, mini-grid and on-grid – increases the number of methods available to obtain electricity access. Off-grid technologies (such as stand-alone solar home systems), mini-grids and energy-efficient appliances are complementing efforts to provide electricity access from grid expansion. Such decentralised systems can help fill the energy access gap in remote areas by delivering electricity at a level of access that is currently too expensive to be met through a grid connection, and in urban areas by providing back-up for an unreliable grid supply.

While dramatic scale effects have been achieved in solar PV, R&D efforts focused on efficiency and other fundamental improvements in solar PV technology need to continue to keep on pace with the SDS. Mainstream technology at present is dominated by crystalline silicon. Within it, screen-printed Al-back surface field cells (Al-BSF) holds around three quarters of the market, with the remaining quarter dominated by Passivated Emitter Rear Cell technology (PERC).  Strong global demand for higher-efficiency modules is driving a shift towards PERC and the next generation of technologies, like n-type HJT and IBC.

Higher PV shares, particularly in distribution grids, will necessitate the development of new ways to inject power into the grid and to manage generation from solar PV systems. The inverter and the rest of the power control system is generally the gateway for smart-management measures, and while technology has been proved, systems will need to become smarter and provide a broader range of voltage, reactive power and other ancillary services to the grid. Beyond making inverters smarter, the overall balance-of-system (BOS) costs (which include inverters) should be a key area of focus, as they can take up 40‑60% of all investment costs in a PV plant, depending on the region.

Additional resources