IEA (2019), Oil Information 2019, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-2019
Oil Information is a comprehensive reference book on current developments in oil supply and demand. This publication contains key data on world production, trade, prices and consumption of major oil product groups, with time series back to the early 1970s. Its core consists of a detailed and comprehensive picture of oil supply, demand, trade, production and consumption by end-user for each OECD country individually and for the OECD regions. Trade data are reported extensively by origin and destination. Oil Information is one of a series of annual IEA statistical publications on major energy sources; other reports are Coal Information, Electricity Information, Natural Gas Information and Renewables Information.
World oil production stood at 98.3 Mb/d in 2018, up from the 2017 daily production level of 95.7 mb/d.
Production increased in the OECD and elsewhere, counteracting declines in OPEC production.
This increase in world oil production was driven by the United States, where production increased by 15.6% compared to 2017. As such, the United States remained the world’s top producer, followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada. Iraq overtook Iran as the world’s fifth largest producer, as production in Iran fell by 4.4% in 2018.
Looking at the OECD, production notably declined in Mexico and Norway but was more than compensated by increased production in the United States and Canada. As a result, OECD production of oil accounted for almost a third of world production in 2018, up from just above a quarter in the previous year.
Production in OPEC declined following the organization’s decision in November 2017 to enact supply cuts through 2018, alongside some non-OPEC members.
High compliance rates with the set targets, together with additional sharp declines in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Angola brought OPEC oil production down by 0.2% in 2018. These losses were sufficient to offset the recovery in Libyan and Nigerian production.
World oil demand increased by 1.6% in 2017, driven by non-OECD countries. Provisional 2018 data shows further growth.
In the OECD, oil demand grew moderately in 2017 as growth in OECD Europe was offset by the slight decline in demand in the OECD Americas. Demand in OECD Asia Oceania remained stable in 2017, despite a 1.5% decline in Japanese oil demand driven by the power and heat sector as more nuclear capacity comes back online. Demand grew moderately in the United States, which remained the world’s largest consumer.
Non-OECD countries have represented the largest share of world oil demand since 2012 reaching 52% in 2018, with China and India being the most important sources of demand. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia and Africa both saw growth in oil demand while demand fell in the non-OECD Americas by 2.1%, driven by a sharp decline in Venezuela.
World demand of gas/diesel oil increased in 2017 after falling the year prior, driven by the increases in India, Indonesia and Russia. Demand for motor gasoline also grew in 2017 driven mainly by China and India.
There was also significant growth in demand for aviation fuels. This growth was concentrated in non-OECD countries, but the OECD also saw robust demand growth on the back of robust air traffic demand growth.
Refinery output increased by 3.5% in Asia in 2017 compared to 2016, driven by growth in Chinese output. Overall the region accounted for about 45% of global refinery output in 2017, up from 26% in 1990.
The only regions where refinery output decreased in 2017 were the non-OECD Americas and Africa. Most of the decline in non-OECD Americas is attributable to Venezuela, where 2017 refinery output fell by 150 kb/d.
Despite the strong growth in Chinese refinery output in 2017, the United States continued to be the world’s largest refiner, with year on year growth of 1.3%. China was thus the world’s second largest refiner, followed by Russia, India and Japan.
Trade of oil products and of crude oil and NGL both increased in 2017. Crude and NGL imports increased by 3.1% year on year, while exports increased by 1.1%.
This marked the third consecutive year of increases in imports of primary oil, and for the first time since 2003, imports of primary oil grew at a faster rate than imports of oil products. Exports of oil products grew by 2.9% in 2017.
The United States remained the world’s largest importer of crude and NGL in 2017, amidst slower growth in imports. Preliminary data for 2018 shows a decline of 2.9% in imports of primary oil products, coinciding with significant increase in domestic production in the country.
Meanwhile China, the second largest crude importer, maintained important, although slower, growth in imports of crude and NGL through 2017, further narrowing the gap between the two largest importers. Indian imports of crude and NGL combined also increased reaching a new historical high of 220 Mt in 2017, as refinery activity continues to increase in the country. Asian imports of crude and NGL increased more than for any other region in 2017.
Despite cuts of crude and NGL exports in 2017, Saudi Arabia remained world largest exporter of crude and NGL followed by Russia.The United States entered the top 10 of global crude and NGL exporters in 2017 by nearly doubling 2016 exports, and provisional data point to a further increase in 2018. Most of these volumes have been exported to Asian markets, and in particular China, with Canada remaining as the top destination for U.S. crude and NGL.
In 2017, imports of oil products increased in all regions except the Middle East, driven by lower imports into the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia where refinery output of oil products increased year on year.
Imports of oil products into OECD Europe remained stable in 2017, with lower refinery activity and demand met by drawing stocks of finished products.
Deliveries of oil products for international marine bunkers have been steadily increasing globally, and have recovered since the 2010 downturn. Deliveries increased by 2.8% in 2017 compared to 2016.
Growth was concentrated in Asia, including China, where deliveries grew by 6.0% year on year. Growth in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is driven by the rebound in Russian deliveries. In the OECD, disaggregated fuel data shows a switch from the use of residual fuel oil to marine gas/diesel oil in international marine bunkers, a trend that will become more pronounced as the more stringent IMO regulations roll out.