Market Report Series
Each year the IEA publishes reports that forecast market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. In addition, a market report assesses energy efficiency.
The reports aim to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures to 2021. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered.
Although published at different times of the year, the market report series is consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The most recent editions of the market reports can be ordered via the IEA Bookshop, and the Oil 2018 forms an integral part of the annual subscription service for the benchmark monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Older editions of the market reports are available below for free download. See the below sections for more detail and the download links to the most recent and older editions of all the market reports as well as related material.
Oil 2018 is the IEA’s annual five-year forecast of global oil demand, supply refining, and trade.
Global oil demand growth remains healthy driven by developing countries in Asia, even as oil consumption growth slows down in China thanks to new environmental policies designed to curb air pollution. Strong growth in petrochemicals demand globally is another key area of growth.
Upstream investments have not rebounded from the historic two-year decline seen in 2015-2016 except in the United States which dominates the supply growth story. Meanwhile, there is uncertainty over the longer-term prospects of the successful OPEC and non-OPEC market management policy.
These strands set the scene for Oil 2018’s analysis of the market, which examines a wide range of other important issues and uncertainties, including:
• The implications for oil demand of the 2020 IMO marine fuel regulations.
• The growth of the global petrochemicals sector.
• The rise of electrification in China’s transport fleet.
• Decline rates in key oil producing countries.
• Crude quality issues arising from the rapid increase in US production.
• Investment needs in North American takeaway capacity.
• Implications for global refining of the looming capacity surplus.
• Trends in global oil trade.
Market Report Series: Coal 2017
The future of coal – the world’s dominant fuel for more than a century – continues to be one of the most pressing questions in the energy scene. Coal is under pressure in many regions of the world for its contribution to greenhouse gases. It is being squeezed out in power generation by cheap and abundant natural gas and fast-growing renewables, whose costs are also plummeting.
At the same time, however, recent declines in coal usage have also been reversed this year by stronger consumption in coal’s three largest markets – China, India, and the United States. But, whereas this growth is expected to be temporary in China and United States, that is not the case for India. Despite progress in energy efficiency improvements and the deployment of renewables, increasing energy needs for its economic growth and development will push India to expand coal use.
The IEA Coal 2017 market and analysis report provides a comprehensive analysis of recent trends and forecasts through 2022 of coal demand, supply and trade at both the global and regional levels. The insights provided in this report help to explain the current developments in coal markets and provide a window into the fuel’s future over the next five years.
Market Report Series: Energy Efficiency 2017
Energy efficiency is central to all global energy transitions. It is the world’s most available, secure and affordable energy resource and every government around the world has the power to further exploit efficiency for widespread benefit.
Energy Efficiency 2017 is the global tracker examining the trends, indicators, impacts and drivers of energy efficiency progress. The questions addressed in this year’s report include:
- How quickly is the world becoming more energy efficient? Which countries are making most progress?
- What are the impacts of energy efficiency on the global economy and energy system?
- How does energy efficiency affect global, regional and national energy security?
- How has policy, a key driver of energy efficiency, progressed globally? How does policy vary between countries, economic sectors and end-use appliances?
- How has energy efficiency affected household energy expenditure? What technology changes might unlock future savings?
- How is efficiency evolving in the major end-use sectors of industry, buildings and transport?
- What happened to energy efficiency investment in 2016? What business models and sources of finance are driving greater investment?
- How has the market for energy services changed? In which markets is energy efficiency being commoditised?
This year’s report also includes a special country focus on Indonesia, the largest energy consumer in Southeast Asia.
The IEA is working to improve understanding of the status, drivers and benefits of energy efficiency. Energy Efficiency 2017 is the key global tracker of energy efficiency progress and a vital information resource for policy makers and companies seeking to reap the multiple benefits of energy efficiency.
The Energy Efficiency Market Report 2016 (Chinese, additional material) and the Medium-Term Energy Efficiency Market Reports for 2015 (Chinese, French, Spanish), 2014, 2013 are available for free download.
Market Report Series: Renewables 2017
The rapid spread of renewable energy is a bright spot in the global energy transition toward a low carbon economy. Despite lower fossil fuel prices, renewable power expanded at its fastest-ever rate in 2015, thanks to supportive government policies and sharp cost reductions. Renewables accounted for more than half of the world’s additional electricity capacity last year. Yet, even with this remarkable progress, there are questions about whether renewables are on track to reach targets set by the Paris Agreement.
This report examines these questions in detail, looking closely at how renewable energy in the power, heat and transportation sectors will evolve over the next five years in the face of lower fossil fuel prices. It explores recent renewable deployment and policy trends across different regions and countries, particularly as costs for wind and solar PV continue to fall.
Renewables 2017 also assesses the potential impact of enhanced policy action for the electricity sector under its "accelerated case", which would position the world firmly on a path to a more sustainable and secure energy system. Read the press release here.
Market Report Series: Gas 2017
The natural gas market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Industry has overtaken the power sector as the driving force behind the growing use of gas, thanks to rising demand in places like the People’s Republic of China, developing Asia, the Middle East and the United States. At the same time, structural changes in gas supply and trade are changing the global gas market. Heavily oversupplied markets, the ongoing shale-gas revolution in the United States, the second wave of additional liquefaction capacity from Australia and the US, and the fast-growing LNG trade are disrupting traditional gas business and pricing models. This is forcing market players to redefine their strategies and explore new markets.
The IEA’s renamed Gas 2017 market report provides a detailed analysis of supply and trade developments, infrastructure investments, and demand-growth forecast through 2022. It assesses the main changes that will likely transform the gas market, led by rising demand in countries that include China, India, and Pakistan, thanks to ongoing economic growth and relatively low LNG prices. It also explores widening regional differences to traditional gas users, with flat demand forecast in Europe and structural demand decline in Japan.
Oversupplied markets will also keep pressure on prices and discourages new upstream investment in gas production and LNG liquefaction capacity. At the same time, market reforms in places like Egypt, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico have the potential to bring new investments and technologies to unlock vast domestic resources, creating new prospects for the gas industry.