Release Date: 2009 (updated in June 2011)
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (EVs and PHEVs), if coupled with low greenhouse gas (GHG) electricity generation, can help cut energy (particularly petroleum) use and CO2 significantly, especially in the 2030-2050 timeframe – but key actions must begin now to achieve interim targets and thus substantial market shares in the long-term. The vision of this roadmap is to achieve widespread adoption and use of EVs and PHEVs worldwide by 2050, and if possible well before. The primary role of this EV/PHEV Roadmap is to help establish a vision for technology deployment; set approximate, feasible targets; and identify steps required to get there. It also outlines the role for different stakeholders and how they can work together to reach common objectives, and the role for government policy to support the process.
The analysis in the roadmap is based on IEA’s ETP 2DS scenario, updated in the IEA report Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability (Autumn 2009). This scenario targets a 50% reduction in CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005 levels. For transport, a 30% reduction is achieved via efficiency improvements, along with the introduction of new types of vehicles and fuels. For EVs and PHEVs, sales begin to grow rapidly after 2015 and reach a combined 7 million per year by 2020, and 100 million by 2050, over half of all cars sold around the world in that year.
Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050.
In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions, the roadmap’s level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise.
Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure.
The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour.
Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential.
RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface.
International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2012