Technology Roadmap: China Wind Energy Development Roadmap 2050
Release Date: October 2011
Developed by the Energy Resource Institute of China’s National Reform and Development Commission (ERI-NDRC), the China Wind Energy Roadmap is the first national roadmap that has been developed by a country with IEA support, drawing from its global roadmap series.
The report shows how China, already the world’s largest wind market, could reach 1,000 GW of wind power by the middle of the century, an achievement that would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.5 gigatonnes per year, or roughly equivalent to the combined CO2 emissions of Germany, France and Italy in 2009.
- Energy demand in China will increase rapidly in next 40 years because of China’s economic and social development. The Chinese government has proposed a low-carbon development strategy, and wind power has become and will continue to be one of the main energy technologies used to realise low carbon targets.
- This roadmap foresees wind power capacity reaching 200 GW by 2020, 400 GW by 2030 and 1,000 GW by 2050. Wind power will be one of five main power sources, and will meet 17% of electricity demand. As technology improves and wind power is scaled up, there are no insurmountable barriers to realising these ambitious targets, with respect to resources, technology, industry and the power system.
- Depending on the cost of wind energy development and the transmission cost of wind power in different areas, the supply curves in this roadmap will be achieved. If the marginal tariff for wind power is set at CNY 0.55/ kWh excluding the transmission cost for long distance, 700 GW could be installed around seven strategic concentrations.
- Before 2020, land-based wind power will dominate, with offshore wind power at the demonstration stage; from 2021 to 2030, both land and offshore wind power will be developed, and far offshore wind power will be in demonstration; after 2030, wind power will be developed further on land and offshore.
- To realise the above targets, the total investment in wind power will be CNY 12,000 billion. Investment costs per unit of wind power will gradually fall; the cost of wind power expected to be the same as or close to the cost of coal power in 2020.
- Environmental and social benefits will be considerable if the above targets are realised. Annual CO2 emission mitigation will be 1.5 billion tonnes in 2050, and an estimated 720 000 jobs will be created.
- RD&D is crucial for sustainable development of wind power. RD&D will need to be focused on assessing wind resources (including forecasting); advanced wind turbines; wind farm construction and operation, etc.
- Wind power, currently at the stage of scale-up development, should be regarded as an important power source. For wind power to develop rapidly, actions that need to be conducted in the near term include implementing a wind power consumption plan, and co-ordinating the development of wind power, other power sources and the power grid, as well as demonstration of smart grid technologies. In the middle and long term, reform of the electric power sector should be promoted and realised, and the electric power market established. After 2030, advanced technologies will be widely deployed, including advanced and cost-effective storage technologies and smart grids.
- Energy Research Institute, China National Development and Reform Commission
- Department of New Energy and Renewable Energy of China National energy Administration
- Sino-Danish Renewable Energy Development Programme
- China wind Energy Association
- HydroChina Corporation
- Wind Energy and Solar Energy Resources Assessment Center of China Meteorology Administration
- State Grid Energy Research Institute
- Renewable Energy Institute of North China Electric Power University