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Oil Market Report: 13 September 2017

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Highlights

  • Global oil demand grew very strongly year-on-year in 2Q17, by 2.3 mb/d (2.4%). For 2017, we have revised upwards our growth estimate to 1.6 mb/d. OECD demand growth continues to be stronger than expected, particularly in Europe and the US. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are projected to slow US oil demand growth in 3Q17.
  • Global oil supply fell by 720 kb/d in August due to unplanned outages and scheduled maintenance, mainly in non-OPEC countries. The first decline in four months cut supply to 97.7 mb/d. Compared to a year ago, output was up 1.2 mb/d as non-OPEC continued to show substantial growth. Ten non-OPEC countries cooperating with production cuts achieved more than 100% compliance for the first time.
  • OPEC crude output fell in August for the first time in five months, after renewed turmoil in Libya disrupted flows and others pumped less. Output decreased by 210 kb/d from a 2017 high to 32.67 mb/d. The 12 members bound by OPEC's supply pact raised their compliance rate to 82% from 75% during July. For the year as whole their compliance rate is 86%.
  • OECD commercial stocks were unchanged in July at 3 016 mb, when they normally increase. The surplus over the five-year average fell to 190 mb. OECD product stocks were only 35 mb above the five-year average at end-July and could soon fall below it because of the impact of Hurricane Harvey.
  • Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-3/bbl in August with higher crude demand and outages in Libya. North American crudes lagged behind global benchmarks and Hurricane Harvey increased the gap in late August. Diesel and gasoline prices went higher.
  • For 3Q17, our refinery throughput forecast is revised down by 0.7 mb/d, due to Hurricane Harvey's impact. This results in global refined product undersupply for the second consecutive quarter. In 4Q17, throughput will reach another record level, at 80.9 mb/d as refiners respond to higher margins in the tight product markets.

Ready for a rainy day

The US has recently seen two severe weather events: Hurricane Harvey has more directly affected oil industry operations than Hurricane Irma, although the full impact of the latter remains to be seen at the time of writing. As far as Harvey is concerned, disruption to local oil markets in the US Gulf Coast is easing on a daily basis and its impact on global markets is likely to be relatively short-lived. Given the severity of the storm, it was inevitable that the normal output and distribution of products would be hampered, that local shortages would emerge, and prices would rise. Before the storm hit Texas, commercial stocks in the US and in the Gulf Coast region were at comfortable levels. This was a good thing because the estimated loss of refinery output in September of about 1.6 mb/d has only partially been offset by lower demand. Loans to refiners from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as well as the availability of surplus European gasoline ensured that the Gulf Coast and areas of the US dependent on it were well covered, as was Mexico. In addition to the adaptations made by the market, the IEA was ready to act through its collective response mechanism if the situation had worsened, although that did not turn out to be necessary.  However, the availability of global strategic stocks proved their value, even at a time of strong oil market liquidity.

While the industry responded much better than a decade ago when severe storms hit the Gulf Coast, the region nowadays is more important to the global oil market.  For a long time it has been a production and refining hub; today it is an important global trading centre with more than 4 mb/d of products and 0.8 mb/d of crude oil being exported. For products, US exports are important for many countries e.g. Mexico, Venezuela and several Central American states. Crude oil from the US finds its way to an increasing number of countries including China, Korea, Italy, the Netherlands, Singapore and the United Kingdom. With US export volumes expected to increase, the strategic importance of the Gulf Coast will only grow. The rise of the Gulf Coast as a major energy hub means that, in some respects, it can be compared to the Strait of Hormuz in that normal operations are too important to fail.

In the sections of this Report, we assess the impact of Hurricane Harvey, but, as always, there are other market developments that affect our forecast.  Demand growth is strengthening: robust demand in OECD countries was a key factor in 2Q17's global growth of 2.3 mb/d, the highest quarterly year-on-year increase since mid-2015. Consequently, our estimated demand growth for 2017 has been increased to 1.6 mb/d. On the supply side, global production fell in August for the first time since April, with lower output from OPEC countries being one factor but also, following a fall in month-on-month production in June, US crude production has been affected by Harvey from a lower base than we anticipated. As for stocks, OECD levels were unchanged in July versus June, when the normal trend is for an increase. Within the OECD total, product stocks are now only 35 mb above the five-year average. Depending on the pace of recovery for the US refining industry post-Harvey, very soon OECD product stocks could fall to, or even below, the five-year level. Oil prices have recently settled down after the disturbance brought by Hurricane Harvey and, indeed, Brent crude values have increased to levels last seen in early April and the market is now in backwardation, albeit a shallow one. Based on recent bets made by investors, expectations are that markets are tightening and that prices will rise, albeit very modestly.

The oil market has coped relatively well with the challenges posed by the hurricane season thus far, but that said, now may be a good time to consider steps to mitigate the impact of future severe-weather events. This could encompass reviewing the robustness of the Gulf Coast energy infrastructure, including production facilities, refineries, crude and product storage capacity, pipelines and marine infrastructure, and what measures can be taken to minimize disruptions to port operations. There is also an opportunity to examine whether more can be done by industry and government working together to strengthen energy security, perhaps including the provision of government-held product stocks in the US, a subject that was last examined in 2015's Quadrennial Energy Review. The IEA remains committed to strengthening energy security in all parts of the value chain and we will work with our member governments and others to achieve this objective.

Demand

Summary

  • This month's Report combines the impact of very strong demand numbers in OECD countries in June and the effect of hurricanes Harvey and Irma on US energy demand in 3Q17. The overall demand growth is slightly modified, with an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d in 2017. We now forecast demand growth of approximately 1.6 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.7%) and 1.4 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.4%).
  • Estimates of year-on-year (y-o-y) global demand point to very strong growth in 2Q17, at 2.3 mb/d (2.4%). OECD demand growth continues to be much stronger than expected, particularly in Europe and the US.
  • US June data showed demand growth of 665 kb/d y-o-y. Gasoline demand growth was 100 kb/d and gasoil rose 115 kb/d, benefitting from healthy industrial production and rising freight transportation. LPG/ethane demand rose by 275 kb/d.
  • German oil consumption rose by 120 kb/d y-o-y in July, supported by a jump of 160 kb/d in gasoil deliveries. German consumers may have stored heating oil ahead of the winter season.
  • Chinese oil demand growth slowed to 480 kb/d y-o-y in July from 700 kb/d in 1Q17 and 573 kb/d in 2Q17.
  • Indian demand growth slowed to 70 kb/d in July, after a strong 2Q17. LPG and gasoil demand remained strong, while kerosene demand declined by 30 kb/d.

Supply

Summary

  • Global oil supply fell by 720 kb/d in August due to unplanned outages and scheduled maintenance, mainly in non-OPEC countries. The first decline in four months cut supply to 97.7 mb/d. Compared to a year ago, output was up 1.2 mb/d as non-OPEC continued to show substantial growth.
  • OPEC crude output fell in August for the first time in five months, after renewed turmoil in Libya disrupted flows and others pumped less. Output decreased by 210 kb/d from a 2017 high to 32.67 mb/d in August. The 12 members bound by OPEC's supply pact raised their compliance rate to 82% from 75% during July.
  • A substantial drop in supply from Libya meant that output from OPEC as a whole fell by 400 kb/d in August compared to an October baseline for supply cuts.

  • Summer maintenance curbed non-OPEC supplies by more than 500 kb/d in August. At 58 mb/d, total non-OPEC output nevertheless stood 1.2 mb/d higher than a year earlier, with growth dominated by the US, Kazakhstan, Russia, Canada and Brazil. The largest year-on-year declines came from Mexico, Azerbaijan and Oman.
  • Hurricane Harvey is estimated to have shut in roughly 200 kb/d of crude oil production in August and around 300 kb/d in September. While lost production from the Gulf of Mexico was small compared to previous hurricanes, onshore Texas output was more severely impacted.
  • Forecast non-OPEC supply growth is essentially unchanged from last month's Report, as a higher outlook for Canada and the North Sea offset weaker US and Brazilian estimates. Growth is forecast to average 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and nearly 1.5 mb/d in 2018.

All world oil supply data for August discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC countries, Alaska, Azerbaijan, Mexico and Russia are supported by preliminary August supply data.

Stocks

Summary

  • OECD commercial stocks were unchanged in July at 3 016 mb but they continued to fall against the five-year average on higher demand, exports to non-OECD countries and refinery outages.
  • Oil product stocks in the OECD were only 35 mb above the five-year average at the end of July and could fall further when August and September data are released.
  • Hurricane Harvey has reduced oil product stocks and had the opposite effect on crude holdings. It will take several weeks before its full impact on stocks is understood.
  • Preliminary data for August show reduced stocks in Fujairah, Japan, the US and lower floating storage volumes. Stocks in Europe and Singapore, by contrast, increased.

Prices

Summary

  • Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-3/bbl in August versus July. Higher oil product demand in the northern hemisphere was an important factor.
  • Money managers increased net long positions in crude futures by 150 mb until 22 August, a remarkable about-turn since the lows registered in June. The appearance of Hurricane Harvey, brought about a sharp reversal for WTI futures.
  • Hurricane Harvey pressured US crude prices and, conversely, boosted oil product prices in the Gulf Coast region and beyond. Markets adjusted quickly and by early September crude prices had started to recover and oil product prices were down.
  • Major crude and oil product benchmarks were in backwardation at the time of writing, where prompt prices are higher than future ones, highlighting tighter fundamentals in the global oil market.

Refining

Summary

  • Forecast 3Q17 global throughput has been revised down by 0.7 mb/d to 80.4 mb/d, largely due to Hurricane Harvey's impact on the US Gulf Coast. Year-on-year (y-o-y) growth is just 0.2 mb/d.
  • In 4Q17, global throughput is expected to buck seasonal trends and climb 0.5 mb/d quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 80.9 mb/d, up 0.8 mb/d y-o-y.
  • Our first forecast for the whole of 2017 shows throughput growth slightly faster than in 2016 (0.7 mb/d vs 0.5 mb/d), but this is well below the growth in refined product demand, which implies large product stock draws (See Global crude oil and refined product balances - where is the tightness?).