IEA releases Oil Market Report for May

13 May 2015

Despite slowing US output of light tight oil, global oil supply growth remained at a steep 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in April, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for May informed subscribers. At 95.7 mb/d, total oil supplies were flat from March as higher OPEC output offset a drop in non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2015 is projected at 830 000 barrels per day (830 kb/d), up by 200 kb/d since the April OMR.

OPEC crude supply rose by 160 kb/d to 31.21 mb/d in April – the highest since September 2012, and nearly 1.4 mb/d above a year earlier – as Iraq and Iran boosted output and top exporter Saudi Arabia held flows above 10 mb/d. Upward revisions to non-OPEC supply lower “the call on OPEC” by 0.3 mb/d for the second half of 2015, to 30 mb/d.

The May OMR projects global oil demand growth at 1.1 mb/d for 2015, to 93.6 mb/d, up from 0.7 mb/d in 2014. The forecast is unchanged since last month as an improving economic outlook for Europe and a cold winter lift projections of OECD demand but only offset reduced expectations for the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Latin America.

Global refinery crude runs are expected to dip seasonally to 77.8 mb/d in the current quarter, from 78.2 mb/d in the first quarter of 2015. Estimates for both quarters have been lifted markedly since the April OMR on robust runs in Asia and Europe. Annual gains, of 1.4 mb/d for both the first and second quarters, largely shift to the non-OECD region in the current quarter.

OECD industry oil stocks rose counter-seasonally in March by 38.4 mb, led by US crude. Refined products meanwhile inched lower and by end-month covered 30.3 days of forward demand, level with a month earlier. Preliminary data indicate OECD stocks continued on an upward trend, building by 35.8 mb in April.

A special feature in the May OMR, "Reversal of fortune: Asian crude importers go from premium to discount", examines how pricing of crude oil imports into OECD Asia Oceania reached its widest negative differential versus OECD Europe since March 201. And as always, the issue features a wide variety of data and charts to go with its in-depth news and analysis of oil markets worldwide.

The Oil Market Report is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.

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