IEA releases Oil Market Report for February

10 February 2015

Global supplies fell by 235 000 barrels per day (235 kb/d) in January to 94.1 mb/d on lower OPEC and non‐OPEC production, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for February told subscribers in an abbreviated issue that was released on the same day as the launch of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015.

Reductions in capital expenditures have cut projected 2015 non‐OPEC supply growth to 800 kb/d. US 2015 production is seen 200 kb/d lower than in last month’s Report, at an average 12.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), with most of the cuts in the second half of the year.

OPEC crude oil output fell by 240 kb/d in January to 30.31 mb/d, led by losses from Iraq and Libya, though output from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Angola and Nigeria edged up. Downward revisions to the non‐OPEC supply growth forecast for the second half have raised the “call” on OPEC to an average 30.2 mb/d – just above the group’s official target of 30 mb/d.

The forecast of global oil demand growth for 2015 is unchanged from the January OMR, at 0.9 mb/d, bringing average demand for the year to 93.4 mb/d. Growth is expected to gain momentum from a modest 0.6 mb/d gain in 2014, on a slightly improved macroeconomic outlook.

Global refinery crude throughputs rose by 1.1 mb/d in December, to 79.1 mb/d, before maintenance curbed activity in January. An unexpected dip in Saudi Arabian runs in November underpins a 140 kb/d downward revision to last month’s assessment of fourth-quarter 2014 runs, to 78.1 mb/d. Throughputs are projected to fall to 77.6 mb/d in the current quarter.

The Oil Market Report for February was released with the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015 and so is an abbreviated issue made up of news highlights, a lead article and tables. The usual OMR format with detailed written analysis will resume with next month’s edition, was released on 13 March.

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