IEA releases February Oil Market Report

20 February 2013

Crude oil futures breached nine-month highs in early February, propelled by stronger economic signals from China and the United States, robust financial market activity and cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere, the IEA said in its February Oil Market Report, released on Tuesday, 13 February.

The report slightly lowered its estimate of global oil demand, to 90.7 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2013, following downward revisions to the International Monetary Fund's forecast of economic activity, while the global demand estimate for the final quarter of 2012 was trimmed by 210 kb/d to 91.0 mb/d on weaker data for Saudi Arabia and the hurricane-hit United States.

Global oil supplies fell 300 000 barrels a day (300 kb/d) in January, to 90.8 mb/d, according to the report. Non-OPEC supplies fell by 190 kb/d to 54.2 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production was estimated at 30.34 mb/d, down 100 kb/d month-on-month, near 12-month lows after higher output from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait failed to mitigate declines elsewhere.

The "call on OPEC and stock change" was reduced by 100 kb/d to 29.7 mb/d in the first quarter, while for full year 2013 it is seen to average 29.8 mb/d.

OECD industry inventories edged down by 22 mb in December to 2 688 mb. Crude and "other products" led the decline while gasoline and middle distillates built. The first-quarter estimate of global refinery crude runs was cut to 75.1 mb following a steep reduction in US runs. Despite this, first-quarter runs are seen 515 kb/d above the previous quarter.

The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.

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