Oil demand expectations for 2012/2013 trimmed by 300-400 thousand barrels per day – Oil Market Report

10 August 2012

Copyright: GraphicObsession

August’s Oil Market Report (OMR) trims 2012/2013 oil demand expectations by 300-400 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), although annual growth remains in an 800-900 kb/d range both years. This follows baseline data revisions and a weaker economic prognosis for 2012/2013.

The implication is that global oil stocks have built solidly in the first half of 2012, albeit the recent trend in OECD countries has been downward. Combined with still-slim OPEC spare capacity, and a series of geopolitical issues confronting several OPEC producers, not least Iran, this has kept crude prices strong through July and early-August.

Consumers appear to have slashed imports of Iranian oil to only around 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in July, but the report suggests that this may prove a low-water mark if constraints on shipping Iranian oil ease in the months ahead.

August’s issue is accompanied by the Annual Statistical Supplement, which provides comprehensive oil market data back to the mid-1990s.  

The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.