Global EV Outlook 2019

Scaling up the transition to electric mobility

Global EV Outlook 2019 provides a comprehensive review of the state of electric mobility, highlighting key developments in vehicle sales, charging infrastructure deployment, costs, energy use, CO2 emissions and demand for battery materials. This year's edition features a specific analysis of the performance of electric cars and competing powertrain options in terms of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

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GEVO 2019 at a glance


EV growth around the world

Electric car deployment has been growing rapidly over the past ten years, with the global stock of electric passenger cars  passing 5 million in 2018, an increase of 63% from the previous year. Around 45% of electric cars on the road in 2018 were in China – a total of 2.3 million – compared to 39% in 2017. In comparison, Europe accounted for 24% of the global fleet, and the United States 22%.

	China BEV	China PHEV	Europe BEV	Europe PHEV	United States BEV	United States PHEV	Other BEV	Other PHEV	World BEV
2013	0.03	0	0.07	0.04	0.08	0.1	0.05	0.03	0.23
2014	0.08	0.03	0.12	0.07	0.14	0.15	0.07	0.05	0.42
2015	0.23	0.09	0.21	0.17	0.21	0.19	0.09	0.07	0.74
2016	0.48	0.17	0.3	0.29	0.3	0.27	0.12	0.08	1.2
2017	0.95	0.28	0.42	0.43	0.4	0.36	0.17	0.13	1.95
2018	1.77	0.54	0.63	0.61	0.64	0.48	0.26	0.19	3.29
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	Private slow chargers (cars)	Publicly available slow chargers	Publicly available fast chargers
2013	0.42	0.04	0
2014	0.75	0.09	0.01
2015	1.29	0.16	0.03
2016	2.02	0.26	0.07
2017	3.13	0.33	0.11
2018	4.66	0.4	0.14
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Outlook for growth

The IEA New Policies Scenario incorporates both the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, and the likely effects of announced policies, including the Nationally Determined Contributions made for the Paris Agreement.

In comparison, the EV30@30 Scenario reflects a policy case characterised by a wider adoption of EVs, in line with the EV30@30 campaign if it were to be applied at a global scale. The EV30@30 campaign, launched at the Eighth Clean Energy Ministerial in 2017, set the collective aspirational goal for all EVI members of a 30% market share for electric vehicles in the total of all vehicles (except two-wheelers) by 2030.

Under the EV30@30 Scenario, EV sales reach 44 million vehicles per year by 2030.

	PLDVs - BEV	PLDVs - PHEV	LCVs - BEV	LCVs - PHEV	Buses - BEV	Buses - PHEV	Trucks - BEV	Trucks - PHEV
2018	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
2019	7	4	2	0	1	0	0	0
2020	10	6	3	0	2	0	0	0
2021	17	10	4	0	2	0	0	0
2022	23	13	6	0	2	0	0	0
2023	31	17	7	0	3	0	0	1
2024	41	22	10	1	3	1	0	1
2025	52	28	12	1	4	1	0	1
2026	64	33	14	1	5	1	0	1
2027	79	40	17	1	5	1	0	2
2028	96	47	20	2	6	1	0	2
2029	118	56	23	2	7	1	0	2
2030	145	67	27	3	7	1	0	3
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Notes: PLDV: passenger light duty vehicle, LCV: light commercial vehicle, BEV: battery electric vehicle, PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

Implications for energy transitions

The evolution of well-to-wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas emissions from the EV fleet is determined by the combined evolution of the energy used by EVs and the carbon intensity of electricity generation – as the grid becomes less carbon intensive, so do EVs.

Despite the comparative advantage of EVs in terms of GHG emissions, it is clear that the benefits of transport electrification on climate change mitigation will be greater if EV deployment takes place in parallel with the decarbonisation of power systems.

	Entire transport sector GHG emissions (right axis)	Avoided GHG emissions	Equivalent ICE LDVs	Equivalent ICE buses	Equivalent ICE trucks	Equivalent ICE two/three wheelers	Electric LDVs	Electric buses	Electric trucks	Electric two/three wheelers
2018	9.647682261	-39.59312717	-19.38226619	-14.30450192	-0.057609627	-43.97527335	8.499632584	8.8885708	0.044023401	20.69429715
2019	9.519	-52.37738292	-33.7	-25.25764102	-2.442938321	-46.61074282	15.7	18.1	1.975149683	18.62485032
2020	9.395929236	-65.16163867	-49.93468676	-34.29382716	-4.828267014	-49.2462123	24.89976181	26.33534979	2.882960988	19.02328198
2021	9.35	-87	-76.1	-39.4	-10.1	-50.9	35.3	33.2	3.5	18.3
2022	9.36	-113.4	-105.4	-45.2	-14.7	-53	46.6	37.9	4.3	19.4
2023	9.37	-142.6	-137.5	-52.1	-20	-53.8	60.2	40.8	5.3	20.1
2024	9.4	-175.5	-169	-64.1	-23.2	-59.3	74	44.8	5.2	21
2025	9.407119236	-211.2397603	-205.9984295	-74.59363498	-27.10547506	-67.91975636	87.7023637	48.18603302	7.754057358	20.73508151
2026	9.355	-260.9	-250.3	-85.3	-34.3	-70.6	103.1	50.9	7.8	20.7
2027	9.25	-322.9	-303.5	-94.1	-42.9	-71.8	115.5	54.2	8.8	21.4
2028	9.143	-389.6	-358.6	-102.1	-50.2	-79.4	126.5	55	9.3	23.5
2029	9.044	-459.6	-418.2	-103.5	-59.1	-94.5	136	53	10.8	23.4
2030	8.905861698	-535.5885855	-475.9428646	-109.8120934	-72.2862607	-104.1953058	140.9572548	50.74913656	13.76608723	21.17546043
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