Gas 2019

Analysis and forecasts to 2024

"Natural gas can contribute to a cleaner global energy system. But it faces its own challenges, including remaining price competitive in emerging markets and reducing methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain."
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA


After another record year, global demand for natural gas is set to keep growing over the next five years, driven by strong consumption in fast-growing Asian economies and supported by the continued development of the international gas trade.

Gas 2019 explores changes underway for gas supply and demand, and other trends that are set to determine the evolution of the market over the next five years.

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Growing demand for natural gas


	TPED	United States	China	Natural gas
2010-16	93.58306212			48.75581033
2017	170.1670042			83.5340987
2018	184.1546525	66.8015061	35.62624989	40.50597214
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Gas demand in the coming five years is set to be driven by Asia Pacific, forecast to account for almost 60% of the total consumption increase to 2024. China will be the main driver for gas demand growth, though slower than in the recent past as economic growth slows, but still accounting for about 40% of total gas demand increase to 2024.

In the case of China, coal to gas switching and residential uses play a major role in growing demand, whereas power generation is to be the main driver in the Middle East. However it is the industrial sector that is expected to account for almost half of the increase in natural gas consumption globally, covering both energy for processes and feedstock for chemicals.

	Industry	Power generation	Buildings & Other sectors
China	55	35	76
Middle East	23	35	12
Other Asia Pacific	30	15	6
United States	18	10	11
India	18	6	4
Africa	8	13	6
Other North America	12	10	1
Central and South America	5	2	5
Other Eurasia	5	5	1
Europe	1	6	-6
Russia	4	-6	-13
Japan	1	-24	3
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The United States leads production growth


	United States	China	Middle East	Russia	Other Eurasia	Egypt	Australia	Other Africa	Central and South America
Production	157	81	71.54887638	33	31	23	21	19	11.7268553
Exports	111	0	2.548876384	47	20	3	19	7	0
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Changes in LNG markets


Looking at LNG specifically, the market is set to undergo profound changes over the next five years. China and India emerge as major LNG buyers along with increasing imports to Europe. On the supply side, the emergence of a trio of leading exporters results in Australia overpassing Qatar in 2022, and being overpassed by the United States by 2024.

World LNG trade for a selection of importers and exporters, 2014-24
	China	Japan	Europe	India
2014	25.94594595	121	42.81081081	19
2016	35.97379414	117.5308051	55.14363139	26
2018	73.11680884	116.3724785	69.05303122	31
2020	88.560146	115.0104124	77.68585635	35
2022	95.412481	113.1282091	79.84351337	44
2024	108.909284	105.312803	85.61894833	54
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	United States	Australia	Qatar	Russia
2014	0.389189189	30.22702703	103	13.75135135
2016	4.054765948	58.86137612	105	14.53902989
2018	28.17336696	91.48547519	105	25.40758938
2020	79.559999	97.115274	105	37.076
2022	95.31220092	105.9984001	105	37.756
2024	112.6906406	107.17616	105	37.7560004
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European supply security


	Domestic production	Long term pipeline contracts	Additional supply needed
2014	269.22	212.5215	42.88858
2016	259.58	219.725	46.465
2018	247.78	212.4745	75.5955
2020	231.68	203.8895	96.2605
2022	217.86	184.5435	134.8265
2024	201.39	162.5745	173.5355
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A global price convergence?


Prices of gas markets in major regions are converging. Differences in regional prices have sharply decreased since the final quarter of 2018 (especially between Asia and Europe) thanks to well-supplied markets. But the Asian spot market still faces a higher degree of price volatility because of stronger seasonal patterns.

The expansion of the LNG trade is likely to encourage greater price convergence, while the debottlenecking of pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin is likely to keep low US gas prices in the future? However, in the absence of further investment in LNG capacity, the prospect of a tighter market would also imply a return to higher regional price differentials.

	Europe (TTF)	North America (Henry Hub)	Asia (Asian LNG spot)
Jan-14	10.5	4.7	19.0
Feb-14	9.6	6.0	19.6
Mar-14	9.2	4.9	16.9
Apr-14	8.2	4.6	15.0
May-14	7.7	4.6	13.7
Jun-14	6.9	4.6	12.2
Jul-14	6.5	4.0	10.9
Aug-14	6.8	3.9	11.4
Sep-14	7.9	3.9	14.0
Oct-14	7.9	3.8	14.2
Nov-14	8.4	4.1	11.0
Dec-14	8.1	3.4	10.0
Jan-15	6.7	3.0	9.0
Feb-15	7.5	2.8	6.8
Mar-15	6.9	2.8	7.5
Apr-15	7.0	2.6	7.0
May-15	6.7	2.8	7.6
Jun-15	6.7	2.8	7.5
Jul-15	6.7	2.8	7.8
Aug-15	6.4	2.8	8.0
Sep-15	6.3	2.6	7.2
Oct-15	6.0	2.3	6.9
Nov-15	5.4	2.1	7.7
Dec-15	5.0	1.9	7.2
Jan-16	4.4	2.3	5.9
Feb-16	4.1	2.0	4.9
Mar-16	4.0	1.7	4.3
Apr-16	4.0	1.9	4.3
May-16	4.3	1.9	4.7
Jun-16	4.8	2.6	5.3
Jul-16	4.6	2.8	5.7
Aug-16	3.9	2.8	5.7
Sep-16	4.0	3.0	5.5
Oct-16	5.2	3.0	6.7
Nov-16	5.7	2.5	7.1
Dec-16	5.4	3.6	8.9
Jan-17	6.3	3.3	8.7
Feb-17	6.1	2.8	6.9
Mar-17	4.9	2.9	5.7
Apr-17	5.1	3.1	5.6
May-17	5.1	3.1	5.6
Jun-17	5.0	2.9	5.4
Jul-17	5.1	3.0	5.6
Aug-17	5.5	2.9	6.1
Sep-17	6.0	3.0	7.1
Oct-17	5.9	2.9	8.8
Nov-17	6.7	3.0	9.6
Dec-17	7.2	2.8	10.5
Jan-18	6.6	3.9	10.8
Feb-18	7.8	2.7	9.5
Mar-18	8.6	2.7	7.9
Apr-18	7.1	2.8	7.5
May-18	7.5	2.8	8.6
Jun-18	7.5	2.9	10.4
Jul-18	7.6	2.8	9.9
Aug-18	8.1	3.0	10.9
Sep-18	9.5	3.0	11.6
Oct-18	8.6	3.3	10.8
Nov-18	8.2	4.1	10.2
Dec-18	7.8	4.0	8.9
Jan-19	7.2	3.1	8.2
Feb-19	6.0	2.7	6.5
Mar-19	5.2	2.9	5.2
Apr-19	5.0	2.7	5.1
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