Gas 2018

Analysis and forecasts to 2023

"While gas has a bright future, the industry is not without its challenges. These include the need for gas prices to remain affordable relative to other fuels in emerging markets and for industry to curb methane leaks along the value chain."
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA


Deep transformations are underway in natural gas markets – China is entering the global gas scene, driven by continuous economic growth and strong policy support to curb air pollution; the United States is emerging as a global LNG player; and the industry sector is set to take over from power as the key driver for natural gas demand.

Gas 2018 explores these structural shifts and other trends that are set to determine the evolution of the market over the next five years.

Download summary Purchase report Read press release

Key findings from Gas 2018


	Gas consumption growth, 2017-2023	Gas consumption growth, 2017-2023
China	123.9	
Middle East		80.4
North America		72.5
Other Asia Pacific		65.1
India		25.7
Africa		20.5
Latin America		16.5
Eurasia		-6.9
Europe		-11.4
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"bar",
		"height":"55%"
	},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"plotOptions":{
		"bar":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Natural gas consumption growth, 2017-2023"
	},
	"legend":{
		"enabled":false
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm"
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"min":-20,
		"max":130,
		"tickInterval":10,
		"title": {
			"text":"bcm"
		}
	},
	"series":[{
		"data":[{"colorIndex":0},{},{},{},{},{},{},{},{}]
	}]
}

	Power generation	Industry	Residential and commercial	Energy industry own use	Transport
	8	20	12	7	2
	13	28	20	9	2
	19	29	23	11	8
	28	43	35	16	11
	31	57	42	25	14
	40	58	49	26	20
	50	78	58	29	21
	59	94	67	31	24
	72	112	79	37	28
	84	127	89	42	31
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"55%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		}
	},
"xAxis":{"categories":["2005","2007","2009","2011","2013","2015","2017","2019","2021","2023"]},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"yAxis":{
		"min":0,
		"max":400,
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Chinese natural gas consumption by sector, 2005-23"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm"
	}
}

	Power generation	Industry	Residential and commercial	Other sectors
2011-17	167	97	39	54
2017-23	92	157	61	51
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"55%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"percent"
		}
	},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"yAxis":{
		"min":0,
		"max":100,
		"labels": {
			"format":"{value}%"
		}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Natural gas consumption growth by sector"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm"
	}
}

The United States leads global supply growth

The United States is set to account for the largest share of supply expansion – and the main contributor to export growth. Meanwhile Europe’s dependency on imports increases, leading to potential competition between traditional suppliers such as Russia and new sources of supply, mainly from LNG.

	Domestic market	Export market
United States	65	98
Middle East	83	0
China	56	0
Australia	5	35
Russia	0	35
Egypt	19	0
Europe	-44	0
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		}
	},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"xAxis":{
		"labels":{
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		}
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"min":-50,
		"max":200,
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm",
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		},
		"reversedStacks":false,
		"labels":{
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		},
		"gridLineColor":"rgba(225,225,225,0.15)"
	},
	"legend":{
		"itemStyle":{"color":"#dddddd"}
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"Natural gas production growth for selected countries and regions, 2017-23",
		"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm"
	},
	"series":[{
		"colorIndex":0
	},{
		"colorIndex":3
	}]
}

... driven by associated gas

Oil driven production provides the bulk of output growth in the US, with supply sustaining both domestic markets and export growth

	Shale gas - Permian	Shale gas - Appalachia	Other associated shale gas	Other dry shale gas	Other sources
	16.11536945	120.9147421	111.2124661	80.00980116	357.2480325
	40.3976284	203.5568157	140.3592502	64.8182615	317.3618714
	83.9759517	250.9109474	131.0157754	68.57938137	226.0313803
	144.44284	299.9109474	157.3973503	68.07938137	184.0802124
	168.5152938	319.4109474	176.0057309	68.07938137	164.8443376
	179.6622632	331.4109474	175.4558338	68.07938137	167.6734058
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		}
	},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"xAxis":{
"categories":["2013","2015","2017","2019","2021","2023"],
			"labels":{
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		}
	},
	"yAxis":{
		"min":0,
		"max":1000,
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm",
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		},
		"reversedStacks":false,
		"labels": {
			"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
		},
		"gridLineColor":"rgba(225,225,225,0.15)"
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"US natural gas production by source, 2013-23",
		"style":{"color":"#dddddd"}
	},
	"legend":{
		"itemStyle":{"color":"#dddddd"}
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm",
"valueDecimals":1
	}
}

LNG drives growth in global gas trade…

LNG is the main driver of global trade growth, principally coming from the United States, Australia and Russia. Japan remains the largest LNG importer but it is China and other developing Asian markets that see their share of trade increase substantially, reaching 45% of trade volumes by 2023 – more than double the share of 2013.

	Other Asia and Pacific	China	Japan and Korea	Europe	Other Atlantic Basin and Middle East
	40	24	173	52	36
	50	27	161	55	42
	67	51	165	64	43
	114	67	155	71	39
	127	84	157	73	42
	140	87	148	79	48
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0,
			"stacking":"normal"
		}
	},
"xAxis":{"categories":["2013","2015","2017","2019","2021","2023"]},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"yAxis":{
		"min":0,
		"max":600,
"tickInterval":200,
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm"
		},
		"reversedStacks":false
	},
	"title":{
		"text":"LNG imports by region, 2013-23"
	},
	"tooltip":{
		"valueSuffix":" bcm"
	}
}

... leading to a tighter LNG market

The current wave of LNG export capacity development is due online by the end of 2020. In the short run, this massive capacity addition will increase competition – however this could be short-lived with dynamic growth in Asian emerging markets. Without new investment, the continuous growth of the LNG trade could result in a tight market by 2023. Owing to the long lead time of such projects, investment decisions need to be taken in the next few years to ensure adequate supply through the 2020s.

	Liquefaction capacity addition	Spare capacity (nameplate)	Spare capacity (available)
2013	10	18	6
2014	14	22	8
2015	18	22	4
2016	33	23	5
2017	47	21	5
2018	44	26	11
2019	49	28	14
2020	33	29	15
2021	4	27	12
2022	0	23	8
2023	10	21	5
{
	"chart":{
		"type":"column",
		"height":"35%"
	},
  "colors": [
    "#31869b",
    "#93cddd",
    "#00b050",
    "#60497a",
    "#b1a0c7"
  ],
	"plotOptions":{
		"column":{
			"borderWidth":0
		}
	},
	"yAxis":[{
		"min":0,
		"max":60,
		"title":{
			"text":"bcm"
		}
	}, {
		"min":0,
		"max":30,
		"opposite":true,
		"labels": {
			"format":"{value}%"
		}
	}],
	"title":{
		"text":"LNG liquefaction capacity and utilisation, 2013-23"
	},
	"series":[
		{"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" bcm"}},
		{"type":"line","yAxis":1,"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":"%"}},
		{"type":"line","yAxis":1,"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":"%"}}
	]
}

Download summary Purchase report Read press release