Bioenergy

• Brazil leads the world in biofuel demand and production growth, accounting for near half of the global increase to 2030. On October 9^th, Brazil’s president signed the Fuel of the Future law setting blending levels for biomethane, higher blending levels for ethanol and biodiesel while also setting greenhouse gas targets for the aviation sector and a national programme for Green Diesel.
• The latest iteration of the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), approved in 2023, doubles the renewable energy target in the transport sector to 29% by 2030 or a 14.5% GHG emissions intensity reduction. The RED also outlines feedstock limitations such as caps on food and feed crops, as well as targets for advanced fuels (5.5% by 2030, 1 percentage point of which is to come from synthetic fuels).
• In November of 2023, India announced mandatory blending of compressed bio-gas starting at 1% in 2025-2026 and climbing to 5% by 2028-2029. Biogas and compressed biogas use is forecast to expand by near 90% by 2030 from 2023 levels (excluding household digesters) thanks to the planned mandate and other active policies in the country.
• In 2024, Kenya launched its National Cooking Transition Strategy to provide universal access to clean cooking by 2028 with a focus on biomass cookstoves and bioethanol. This action helps to expand the use of modern bioenergy and reduce the traditional use of biomass.
  

Bioenergy is an important pillar of decarbonisation in the energy transition as a low-emissions fuel. Bioenergy is useful in its flexibility in the contexts and sectors in which it can be used, from solid bioenergy and biogases combusted for power and heat in homes and industrial plants to liquid biofuels used in cars, ships and planes. Furthermore, it can often take advantage of existing infrastructure – for instance, biomethane can use existing natural gas pipelines and end-user equipment, while many drop-in liquid biofuels can use existing oil distribution networks and be used in vehicles with only minor alterations.

Bioenergy use needs to increase in a wide variety of applications by 2030 to get on track with the Net Zero Scenario, including the following:

• Biojet kerosene used in air travel increases from around zero in 2023 to account for almost 10% of all aviation fuel demand in 2030.
• Liquid biofuel consumption more than doubles from 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) (4.6 EJ) in 2023 to 6.0 mboe/d (12 EJ) in 2030, mainly for road transport.
• Bioenergy use in industry increases substantially, from supplying a little over 11 EJ (6% of energy use) of energy in 2023 to almost 17 EJ (9.4%) in 2030, mostly in pulp and paper, food and tobacco, and non-metallic minerals industries.
• Biomethane used in the gas grid to heat buildings grows from very small quantities today to reach just under 1.6 EJ in 2030.
• Bioenergy used for electricity generation provides dispatchable, low-emissions power to complement generation from variable renewables. Its use nearly doubles, from generating about 700 TWh of electricity (2.4% of total generation) in 2023 to around 1 250 TWh (3.2% of total generation) in 2030.
• Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – which creates negative emissions by capturing and storing bioenergy emissions that are already carbon-neutral – also plays a critical role. BECCS captured and stored 1.5 Mt of CO₂ in 2023 and increases to around 180 Mt of CO₂ in 2030, offsetting emissions from sectors where abatement will be most difficult.

Bioenergy is one component of the overall increase in renewable energy in the Net Zero Scenario.

Total global bioenergy use in 2030 under the Net Zero Scenario is only about 17% higher than in 2023, although this by itself does not tell the full story. Near 32% of the bioenergy used in 2023 was from biomass for traditional cooking methods such as over open fires – practices that are unsustainable, inefficient, polluting and were linked to almost 3 million premature deaths from indoor air pollution in 2023 alone. The use of traditional biomass falls to zero by 2030 in the Net Zero Scenario, in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 on Affordable and Clean Energy. Modern bioenergy usage, which excludes traditional uses of biomass, nearly doubles from about 21 EJ in 2023 (4.5% of total final consumption) to 39 EJ in 2030 (9.5% of total final consumption). This requires the average annual rate of growth to increase from 2.5% over 2010-2023 to 9.3% over 2024-2030.

The Net Zero Scenario sees the traditional use of biomass in rural areas partly replaced by biogas digesters, bioethanol and solid biomass used in modern cookstoves, providing a source of clean cooking for more than 700 million people by 2030. Sustainable bioenergy also provides a valuable source of employment and income for rural communities, reduces undue burdens on women who are often tasked with fuel collection, brings health benefits from reduced air pollution and proper waste management, and reduces methane emissions from waste decomposition. More needs to be done to phase out the traditional use of biomass, as its use in absolute terms has stayed relatively constant since 2016.

Bioenergy comes from a variety of different sources. Some bioenergy sources – such as black liquor from paper production – are the by-product of an industrial process that would have taken place anyway. More commonly, though, bioenergy is sourced from purpose-grown crops or trees in a highly land-intensive process relative to other forms of energy. Unsustainable bioenergy production can have social consequences – such as competition for land use and impacts on food prices – as well as negative environmental externalities, such as worsened biodiversity and net increases in emissions.

Aligning with the Net Zero Scenario will require bioenergy production to increase, but care must be taken to ensure that doing so does not result in significant negative effects for society or the environment. In accordance with these sustainability considerations, there is no expansion of cropland for bioenergy nor conversion of existing forested land into bioenergy crop production in the Net Zero Scenario. Under this scenario, in 2030, 60% of bioenergy supply comes from waste and residues that do not require dedicated land use, compared to less than 50% today. Innovation and deployment in biofuel conversion technologies will be required to fully unlock the potential of wastes and residues.

Many jurisdictions are moving to introduce policies that suggest they see a significant long-term role for bioenergy in the energy transition. These include:

• More than 80 countries, regions and subnational states currently have policies supporting liquid biofuels.
• A number of countries, including Canada, China, Lithuania and the United States, have announced since 2021 that they are investing significantly in the research and deployment of biofuels. 
• Additionally, the United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, which includes extended and new policy support for biofuels, biochemicals and biomaterials, particularly advanced biofuels and sustainable aviation fuels.
• India extended its Biomass Programme in 2022 to support solid and gaseous biogas production and use across India to 2026.
• Brazil launched measures to support sustainable biogas production in 2022.
• Canada implemented its Clean Fuel Regulations in July 2023 with support policies to expand feedstock supply. 
• In 2022 Indonesia, Brazil and Argentina increased biofuel targets in the transportation sector.

While this progress is positive, bioenergy use has been expanded at a slower rate than is required in the Net Zero Scenario – expanded policy support is therefore needed.