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Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (EVs and PHEVs), if coupled with low greenhouse gas (GHG) electricity generation, can help cut petroleum use and CO2 significantly, especially in the 2030-2050 timeframe – but key actions must begin now. The vision of this roadmap is to achieve widespread adoption and use of EVs and PHEVs worldwide by 2050, and if possible well before. The primary role of this EV/PHEV Roadmap is to help establish a vision for technology deployment; set approximate, feasible targets; and identify steps required to get there. It also outlines the role for different stakeholders and how they can work together to reach common objectives, and the role for government policy to support the process.

The analysis in the roadmap is based on IEA’s ETP BLUE Map scenario, updated in the forthcoming IEA report Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability (Autumn 2009). This scenario targets a 50% reduction in CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005 levels. For transport, a 30% reduction is achieved via efficiency improvements, along with the introduction of new types of vehicles and fuels. For EVs and PHEVs, sales begin to grow rapidly after 2015 and reach a combined 7 million per year by 2020, and 100 million by 2050, over half of all cars sold around the world in that year.

Key messages (click here for a summary)

  • The worldwide 2050 target for light-duty vehicle (LDV) combined EV and PHEV sales share should be at least 50% 
  • Countries should develop clear strategies to support introduction of electric-drive vehicles
  • Innovative battery cost/ownership models are likely to be needed for EVs to succeed
  • Specific indicators are identified for characterising vehicles and measuring progress
  • Research, development and demonstration (RD&D) is needed more than ever to reduce costs and resource-related issues
  • We must improve understanding of resource requirements and establish secure supply chains
  • Stakeholders (national and local governments, electric utilities, car makers and others) must work together to strategically plan and build recharging infrastructure
  • Governments should use a comprehensive mix of policies that leverage stakeholder interests

Details, recommendations, and metrics are contained in the EV/PHEV Roadmap.