18 October 2011, Reuters
The world must invest US$38 trillion (Dh139.58tn) in energy over the next quarter century if it is to meet growing demand, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). Some $10tn of that is required for oil alone, but the Arab Spring is threatening to derail important projects, said Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the IEA, which advises 28 industrialised nations on energy issues. "Some countries seem to follow different oil policies not to raise production as much as the market would like to see," Dr. Birol said yesterday on the sidelines of a meeting at IEA headquarters
18 October 2011, The Times of India
The chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged the world to slash hundreds of billions of dollars of fossil fuel subsidies or face the prospect of a catastrophic 3.5 degrees Centigrade rise in global temperatures. “Today $409 billion equivalent of fossil fuels subsidies are in place which encourage developing countries - where the bulk of the energy demand and CO2 emissions come from – [towards a] wasteful use of energy,” Fatih Birol told EurActiv in an exclusive interview. According to Birol, cutting such subsidies in major non-OECD countries is “the one single policy item” which could help reorient the world towards a trajectory of 2 degrees global warming. It would also reduce CO2 emissions and help renewable energies such as solar and wind power to get a bigger market share, according to the IEAs World Energy Outlook 2011 report which will be released on 9 November. Analysis in the report “indicates that the door for a 2 degrees trajectory may be closing if we do not act urgently and boldly,” Birol said.
18 October 2011, Petroleum Economist
The ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday resolved in Paris to address global energy challenges. According to IEA [World Energy Outlook] projections, non-OECD countries will account for 90 percent of the growth of global energy demand by 2035, when the total demand is expected to increase by a third from now. Moreover, the IEA predicted the energy industry would need some $40 trillion in global investment from now until 2035, two thirds in emerging economies to meet growing energy demand.
18 October 2011, Platts
Energy will become “viciously more expensive” and polluting if governments don’t promote renewable and nuclear power in the next two decades instead of burning coal, the International Energy Agency said. Global demand for energy is set to increase 40 percent by 2035, the Paris-based agency said today in its annual World Energy Outlook report, launched today in London. Consumption will rise 1.3 percent a year to 16.96 billion metric tons of oil equivalent in 2035, spurred by China and other emerging economies, the IEA said. “More than 90 percent of the growth in oil production in the next two decades needs to come from the Middle East and North African countries,” costing $100 billion of investment a year, IEA Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol said. If spending slips to a third of this level, oil prices could jump to $150 a barrel, the IEA said in the 659-page report.
11 October 2011, Guardian
The oil import bill in Europe, the U.S. and Japan is close to the level hit in 2008, when high prices were a contributing factor in the severe recession, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. When expenditures on oil rise to around 5% of gross domestic product, it has historically caused economic problems, Fatih Birol said at the Oil and Money conference in London. "Today with a more than $100 oil price, we are close to that 5% hurdle," he said. Of all the economies in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. is most vulnerable to high oil prices, he said.
11 October 2011, Time Magazine
Economists have been pointing to a widening gulf between the rich countries club on the one hand — member states of the OECD — and the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East on the other. In the West, demand for petroleum products is flat or in decline, while in the East, it shows no sign of slackening. That is partly because of subsidies in the Middle East, where governments keep gasoline prices artificially low, according to Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency. Strong economic growth in China, where car ownership is spreading fast, is another factor, he said. Mr. Birol said 90% of the growth in oil production required to meet rising demand over the next 20 years will need to come from the Middle East and North Africa, due to the decline in output from oil fields in other parts of the world. Yet there was a risk that there may not be adequate investment to ensure the additional production. "If that doesnt happen, it could trigger an international oil crisis," he said.
11 October 2011, Reuters
The energy industry needs $38 trillion (27 trillion euros) in investment by 2035 as it becomes increasingly difficult -- and costly -- to extract fuel, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. The figure, equal to $1.5 trillion a year, is about 15 percent higher than the IEAs previous forecast, chief economist Fatih Birol said during a gathering of energy ministers and industry bosses in Paris. "Its a huge figure because (as) the cost of production increases in many parts of the world, its getting more and more difficult to extract energy, thats why our numbers have increased substantially," he said. "If we dont find that money, the production will not grow as much as it needs to grow, with the result (that) one can see much higher prices than one can see today."
11 October 2011, Calgary Herald
To limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius is becoming much more difficult and the door may be closing if we do not act very boldly and urgently, Birol said at the IEAs Ministerial Meeting in Paris. "This is based on the analysis of some numbers I am not allowed to share around," that will appear in the IEAs forthcoming World Energy Outlook report, he said. Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa may delay investment in oil and infrastructure, which could have a major impact on future oil prices, Birol said on the sidelines of the IEA Ministerial Meeting in Paris.
11 October 2011, Nasdaq
A reluctance to invest in energy infrastructure in Middle Eastern and North African countries, partially because of unrest in the region, could drive up oil prices, an economist warned Tuesday. Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said that $1.5 trillion dollars needs to be invested each year if the world is going to meet energy demands from now until 2035. Much of that money has been forthcoming, he told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of energy ministers and industry leaders in Paris. But there is a particular shortfall in the Middle East and North Africa, from which 90 percent of the growth in oil production will come over the next 10 years. “If we don’t find that money, then the production won’t grow as much as it needs to grow, and as a result of that, one can see much higher prices than we have now today,” he said. An upcoming report by the agency will look more closely at the precise impact on oil prices a shortfall investment will have. Birol said some countries were choosing not to produce as much as the market wanted, while others were unable to because of unrest.
11 October 2011, Wall Street Journal
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa suffering from political unrest may be underinvesting in their oil production, laying the grounds for much higher oil prices, said the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, Tuesday. "In some countries, because of the unrest, projects arent going forward as much as wed like to see," Birol said on the sidelines of the IEAs Ministerial Meeting here. "Some countries arent able to put money for projects on the table because they have other pressing issues…to meet the demands of their population." This is a big problem because "the MENA region is crucial to meet demand growth and to meet the decline in existing production," he said. Around 90% of the growth in world oil supply in the next 10 years will need to come from that region, he said.