9 November 2011, Agence France Presse
The oil price could soon spiral to an all-time high of $150 (£94) a barrel without enough investment in production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. The scenario could arise if investment in the Middle East and North Africa falls just a third short of the annual $100bn needed before 2015, the energy watchdog said. High oil prices are already undermining world economic growth, according to the IEA, which yesterday released its World Economic Outlook. "In 2011, $102 is the average price through to today, which means the global economic recovery is at risk," said Fatih Birol, the IEAs chief economist. "We are in the danger zone for the global economy at current levels.”
9 November 2011, Jiji Press, Japan
The developed worlds energy watchdog, which launched one of its most pessimistic annual energy reports last night in Paris, praised Julia Gillards carbon tax but stressed it would have little effect on what was becoming an unachievable target of limiting global warming to 2C. IEA chief economist, Fatih Birol said an in-depth look at CSG by the IEA had given him no doubts about the green credentials of CSG when compared with coal. Dr Birol said the pace of Queenslands CSG development, which includes $50 billion of LNG projects already in construction at Gladstone, had surprised the IEA, which now forecasts Australia will be the worlds biggest LNG exporter by 2021, overtaking Qatar. "If there is not a major international agreement on climate change by 2017, the chance of limiting the temperature rise to 2C will be closed altogether.
9 November 2011, Dubai Chronicle
Crude prices could rise as high as $150 a barrel if investment in oil and gas production in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) falls sharply below $100 billion a year over the next four years. "If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the Mena region runs one third lower than the $100bn per year required, consumers could face a near-term rise in the oil price to $150 a barrel," the IEA said in a statement accompanying its World Energy Outlook 2011.
9 November 2011, New York Times
The IEA forecasts in its latest World Energy Outlook that global energy demand is set to increase by one-third between 2010 and 2035, fuelled by fast-expanding China, with oil consumption expected to rise from 87 million to 99 million barrels per day over the period. Output increases from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will provide about 90% of the required growth in crude production to 2035. However, if annual investment in the MENA region falls short of the $100 billion needed between 2011 and 2015 the oil price could spike to a near-term $150 per barrel, according to the IEA. Sounding the alarm on the environment, the IEA’s chief economist Fatih Birol warned that even if governments implement new energy policies, cumulative CO2 emissions over the next 25 years would still lead to a long-term global temperature rise of 3.5 degrees Celsius – above the 2-degrees C target - and could reach 6 degrees C if these policies are not implemented. This, he said, was a factor of already committed investments to building CO2-emitting power stations, buildings and factories. “As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the “lock-in” of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals,” Birol said.
9 November 2011, Daily Telegraph
The Paris-based International Energy Agency warned today that world governments are locking themselves into a potentially disastrous future that depends too much on fossil fuels. The message came as the IEA released its annual World Energy Outlook. The IEA also said the modest rise in the share of energy gained by renewables by 2035 was also predicated on a growth in government subsidies from a current $64 billion to $250 billion by 2035, a rise that is by no means certain "in this age of fiscal austerity." The IEA also noted that government subsidies of fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.
9 November 2011, The Australian
The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan and the apprehensions of protracted debt-triggered economic slump in the Eurozone have been moving global policy leaders to re-think the future’s energy mix. In the 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA hints of a “low nuclear case” because of the “rapid slowdown in the use of nuclear power” following the Fukushima disaster. Separately, at the B20 Business Summit on the fringes of the G20 summit in Cannes, Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, disclosed that based on their updated WEO, “$38 trillion of investment is required to meet projected energy demand through 2035.” The breakdown will be: $16.9 trillion for power generation; $10 trillion for oil; $9.5 trillion for natural gas; $1.1 trillion for coal; and $0.3 trillion for biofuels. Dr. Birol albeit warned that “investors in energy projects are facing a multitude of risks.” The defining factors for the energy outlook set sharp focus on: worldwide access to energy; fossil fuel subsidies and investment in energy infrastructure.
9 November 2011, Upstream Online
Oil could reach $150 a barrel in the years ahead without sufficient investment in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the group says factors such as the conflict in Libya and the economic slowdown have kept the price of oil relatively high over the year to date. North Sea Brent crude oil futures have averaged over $100 (£63) per barrel throughout 2011. The IEA predicts further upward pressure will come from increased demand in the years ahead. Oil demand is tipped to rise from 87m barrels a day in 2010 to 99m a day by 2035, driven by transportation in emerging economies. The outlook also says questions over the future use of nuclear energy have been raised by the Fukushima Daiichi emergency in Japan and coal’s prospects are hampered by the regulatory and technical barriers to more efficient power plants and carbon capture and storage facilities.
9 November 2011, Los Angeles Times
We assume that the structure of the oil and gas industry remains dominated by Russian state and private companies, the Paris-based IEA said Wednesday in its World Energy Outlook. "Despite intermittent signs from the government of a desire to open the Russian oil and gas industry to foreign investment, history suggests this is likely to be a slow process." Russia will need to invest an average of almost $58 billion a year in its oil and gas industry to 2035 to stem output declines and start new fields, it said. With this investment, oil production will plateau for the next five years at 10.5 million barrels per day and drop to about 9.7 million a day in 2035, the IEA said. Exports will also fall, declining to 6.4 million bpd from 7.5 million in 2010. In the gas industry, output will climb to 860 billion cubic meters in 2035 from 637 billion last year, and exports will rise "substantially" to about 330 bcm in 2035 from 190 bcm in 2010, the IEA said.
9 November 2011, Manila Bulletin, Philippines
To prevent long-term average global temperatures rising more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels—seen as the maximum possible increase without serious climate disruption—immediate, drastic changes to energy and industrial policies are needed, the IEA said in its 2011 World Energy Outlook. The report also highlights the challenge posed by the rapidly rising use in emerging economies of the fossil fuels, particularly coal, that many scientists believe are a key contributor to climate change. "The door to reach two degrees is about to close. In 2017 it will be closed forever," Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said in an interview, the Wall Street Journal reports.
9 November 2011, El Universal, Mexico
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its annual report World Energy Outlook 2011 (WEO). In it the IEA warns that without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system which would have far-reaching consequences. At the London release, the report says there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing. The natural gas share in the energy mix rises and gas use almost catches up with coal consumption, underscoring key findings from a recent WEO Special Report, precursor to WEO 2011, which examined whether the world is entering a “Golden Age of Gas”.