10 November 2011, Azerbaijan Business Center
The International Energy Administration (IEA) said on Thursday that if unrest in Africa and Gulf continue, Brent Crude Oil could spike above its all-time high of $147/bbl very easily and this would ultimately put further strain on global economy. "In 2011, $102 is the average price through to today which means the global economic recovery is at risk. We are in the danger zone for the global economy at current levels. There is a possibility that production growth from the (Middle East and North Africa, MENA) region may not be what the consumers would like to see. This would be a pity for the global economy, a pity for the oil sector and a pity for those governments”, IEA economist Fatih Birol spoke to reporters in a news conference.
10 November 2011, Saudigazette, Saudi Arabia
The International Energy Agencys (IEA) annual flagship publication, the “World Energy Outlook 2011,” stresses that increasing investments in high-carbon infrastructure are making the 2°C international climate change goal more challenging and expensive to meet. The report, which looks at three energy scenarios to 2035, warns that, “Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system.” The report reconfirms the end of cheap oil, anticipates an upcoming “golden age” for natural gas, and sees renewables being pushed towards center stage, with non-hydroelectric renewables alone expected to rise from the 3% of global energy production seen in 2009 to 15% in 2035.
10 November 2011,
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its annual report World Energy Outlook 2011 (WEO). In it the IEA warns that without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system which would have far-reaching consequences. At the London release, the report says there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing. The natural gas share in the energy mix rises and gas use almost catches up with coal consumption, underscoring key findings from a recent WEO Special Report, precursor to WEO 2011, which examined whether the world is entering a “Golden Age of Gas”.
10 November 2011, Hindustan Times
We assume that the structure of the oil and gas industry remains dominated by Russian state and private companies, the Paris-based IEA said Wednesday in its World Energy Outlook. "Despite intermittent signs from the government of a desire to open the Russian oil and gas industry to foreign investment, history suggests this is likely to be a slow process." Russia will need to invest an average of almost $58 billion a year in its oil and gas industry to 2035 to stem output declines and start new fields, it said. With this investment, oil production will plateau for the next five years at 10.5 million barrels per day and drop to about 9.7 million a day in 2035, the IEA said. Exports will also fall, declining to 6.4 million bpd from 7.5 million in 2010. In the gas industry, output will climb to 860 billion cubic meters in 2035 from 637 billion last year, and exports will rise "substantially" to about 330 bcm in 2035 from 190 bcm in 2010, the IEA said.
10 November 2011, Balkans Business News
Oil could reach $150 a barrel in the years ahead without sufficient investment in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the group says factors such as the conflict in Libya and the economic slowdown have kept the price of oil relatively high over the year to date. North Sea Brent crude oil futures have averaged over $100 (£63) per barrel throughout 2011. The IEA predicts further upward pressure will come from increased demand in the years ahead. Oil demand is tipped to rise from 87m barrels a day in 2010 to 99m a day by 2035, driven by transportation in emerging economies. The outlook also says questions over the future use of nuclear energy have been raised by the Fukushima Daiichi emergency in Japan and coal’s prospects are hampered by the regulatory and technical barriers to more efficient power plants and carbon capture and storage facilities.
10 November 2011, Emirates 24/7, United Arab Emirates
In its 2011 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency forecasts one-third growth in demand projected in the next 25 years, which will require investment to avoid scarcity of resources. Although current economic pressures have lowered the price of crude, it remains high and it is projected to be $120 in 2035, and could grow to $150 if the main producing region, MENA, does not make – as is likely to happen – the necessary investment of $100 billion annually, IEA Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol indicated. “The new political situation in these countries following the revolutions could change investment priorities and that petroleum is left in favour of social or other spending”.
10 November 2011, Natural Gas Vehicles Global News
The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan and the apprehensions of protracted debt-triggered economic slump in the Eurozone have been moving global policy leaders to re-think the future’s energy mix. In the 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA hints of a “low nuclear case” because of the “rapid slowdown in the use of nuclear power” following the Fukushima disaster. Separately, at the B20 Business Summit on the fringes of the G20 summit in Cannes, Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, disclosed that based on their updated WEO, “$38 trillion of investment is required to meet projected energy demand through 2035.” The breakdown will be: $16.9 trillion for power generation; $10 trillion for oil; $9.5 trillion for natural gas; $1.1 trillion for coal; and $0.3 trillion for biofuels. Dr. Birol albeit warned that “investors in energy projects are facing a multitude of risks.” The defining factors for the energy outlook set sharp focus on: worldwide access to energy; fossil fuel subsidies and investment in energy infrastructure.
10 November 2011, 3News, New Zealand
The International Energy Agency’s authoritative World Energy Outlook for 2011 warned that countries are in danger of “locking in” a future that would see average temperatures rise by 3.5 degrees Centigrade, far above the two-degree increase considered the manageable limit. Calculations by the IEA, unveiled in London last week by chief economist Fatih Birol, showed world CO2 emissions rising according to its central “New Policies Scenario” from 28.8 gigatonnes in 2009 to 35.7Gt in 2030 and 36.4Gt in 2035. Total electricity generation is now expected to rise from 20,043TWh in 2009 to 33,417TWh in 2030 and 36,250TWh in 2035.
9 November 2011, Bloomberg
Global oil demand is set to grow by 14.0 per cent by 2035, pulled by China and emerging economies and the price could reach 120 dollars per barrel, the IEA said in its annual report on Wednesday. "Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system," the International Energy Agency said. The agency estimated in its World Energy Outlook publication that global demand for oil would total 99 million barrels per day in 2035, or 12 mbd more than in 2010, and said that the price could reach $120 per barrel despite current price volatility.
9 November 2011, Associated Press
The world is headed for an irreversible climate change in five years, the IEA warns in its 2011 World Energy Outlook, released today in London. The world is likely to build so many new fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure. Anything built from now on that produces carbon will continue to do so for decades to come, and this "lock-in" effect will be the single factor most likely to produce irreversible climate change, the worlds foremost authority on energy economics has found. If this infrastructure is not rapidly changed within the next five years, the results are likely to be disastrous. "The door is closing," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian. "I am very worried – if we dont change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever." "I think its very important to have a sense of urgency – our analysis shows [what happens] if you do not change investment patterns, which can only happen as a result of an international agreement", Dr. Birol added.