World Energy Outlook

New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.

Energy Technology Perspectives

- The 2°C Scenario (2DS) is the main focus of Energy Technology Perspectives. The 2DS lays out an energy system deployment pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C. The  2DS sets the target of cutting CO2 emissions (including emissions from fuel combustion and process and feedstock emissions in industry) by almost 60%  by 2050 (compared with 2013), reaching a cumulative emissions level of about 1 000 GtCO2 from 2013 to 2050. Carbon emissions are projected to decline after 2050 until carbon neutrality is reached.

- The 4°C Scenario (4DS) takes into account recent pledges by countries to limit emissions and improve  energy efficiency, which help limit the long-term temperature increase to 4°C. In many respects the 4DS is already an ambitious scenario, requiring significant changes in policy and technologies. Moreover, capping the long-term temperature increase at 4°C requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050.

- The 6°C Scenario (6DS) is largely an extension of current trends. Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions would grow by about 60% from 2013 to 2050, with about 1 700 GtCO2 of cumulative emissions. In the absence of efforts to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of GHGs, the average global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels is projected to reach almost 5.5°C in the long term and almost 4°C by the end of this century.