Each year the IEA publishes reports forecasting market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. The 2013 editions began with the London launch of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, in May, followed in June by the Medium-Term Gas Market Report and Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report. The Medium-Term Coal Market Report finished the series with its release on 16 December. In addition, 2013 saw the debut in October of the Energy Efficiency Market Report as part of the annual series.
The medium-term reports aim to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures for the 2013-2018 period. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered. The energy efficiency report looks at measurements of the market and its components, offering statistical analysis of energy efficiency and its impact on energy demand.
The medium-term reports, although published at different times of the year, are also consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The reports can be ordered via the IEA Bookshop, while the Medium-Term Oil Market Report also forms an integral part of the annual subscription service for the benchmark monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Tougher Chinese policies aimed at reducing dependency on coal will help restrain global coal demand growth over the next five years. Despite the slightly slower pace of growth, however, coal will meet more of the increase in global primary energy than oil or gas – continuing a trend that has been in place for more than a decade.
Coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.3% per year through 2018, the new book reports, compared with the 2012 report’s forecast of 2.6% for the five years through 2017 and the actual growth rate of 3.4% per year between 2007 and 2012.
While China will account for nearly 60% of new global demand over the next five years, government efforts to encourage energy efficiency and diversify electricity generation will dent that growth, slowing the global increase in demand.
Despite its moderated demand forecast, the report does not project peak coal in China within the next five years, and the nation’s consumption and production will remain comparable to that of the rest of the world combined. Moreover, the report notes that China has approved a number of coal conversion projects to produce liquid fuels and synthetic natural gas – developments that bear watching as they could significantly reduce the country’s demand for other fossil fuels.
For the rest of Asia, coal demand is forecast to stay buoyant over the next five years. India and countries in Southeast Asia are increasing consumption, and India will rival China as the top importer in the next five years.
The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013 is for sale at the IEA bookshop. The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 - Market Trends and Projections to 2017 is now available for free download.
“How to fix the 21st Century’s dirty engine of growth” – a Huffington Post commentary by IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven
Energy efficiency has been referred to as a “hidden fuel”, one that extends energy supplies, increases energy security, lowers carbon emissions and generally supports sustainable economic growth. Yet it is hiding in plain sight: In 2011, investments in the energy efficiency market globally were at a similar scale to those in renewable energy or fossil-fuel power generation.
The first Energy Efficiency Market Report provides a practical basis for understanding energy efficiency market activities, a review of the methodological and practical challenges associated with measuring the market and its components, and statistical analysis of energy efficiency and its impact on energy demand. It also highlights a specific technology sector in which there is significant energy efficiency market activity, in this instance appliances and information and communication technologies (ICT). The report also presents a selection of country case studies that illustrate current energy efficiency markets in specific sectors, and how they may evolve in the medium term.
The energy efficiency market is diffuse, varied and involves all energy-consuming sectors of the economy. A comprehensive overview of market activity is complicated by the challenges associated with quantifying the components of the market and the paucity of comparable reported data. This report underscores how vital highquality and timely energy efficiency data is to understanding this market.
This report sits alongside the IEA market reports for oil, gas, coal and renewable energy, highlighting energy efficiency’s place as a major energy resource. It summarises the trends and prospects for investment and energy cost savings in the medium term, up to 2020.
Renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global energy mix, accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production. Much of this success has stemmed from economic incentives and significant policy effort by countries, particularly those in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as leaders in deployment.
While renewable energy has been the fastest growing sector of the energy mix in percentage terms, its continued growth will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.
Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation for the following five years. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.
The 2013 edition of Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report is for sale at the IEA bookshop.
Natural gas will continue to increase its share of the global energy mix, growing at 2.4% per year between now and 2018. However, this projected growth rate is lower than the IEA’s forecast last year of 2.7%, due to persistent demand weakness in Europe as well as difficulties in upstream production growth in the Middle East and Africa. At the same time, the report sees gas emerging as a significant transportation fuel: Thanks to abundant shale gas in the United States and amid more stringent environmental policies in China, gas is expected to do more to slow oil demand growth than electric vehicles and biofuels combined.
The Medium-Term Gas Market Report provides a detailed analysis of demand, upstream investment and trade developments for the following five years that will shape the gas industry and the role of gas in the global energy system. Its special sections investigate the economic viability of gas-fired power generation in Europe, the prospects for an LNG trading hub in Asia as well as the potentially transformational role of natural gas in transport. Amid a continuous regional divergence between North American abundance, European weakness and Asian thirst for LNG, the Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013 investigates the key questions that the gas industry faces. These include the prospect of the United States becoming a major gas exporter, the challenges of securing enough gas to meet China’s growth, and the ability of Russian gas – spurred both by weak EU demand and resurgent domestic production – to find its manifest destiny in Asia.
The Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013 is for sale at the IEA bookshop.
The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil systembased on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.
The Medium-Term Oil Market Report is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.
The 2013 edition of Medium-Term Oil Market Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a “game changer”. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.
While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of-Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, was overtaking the OECD in 2013 and will keep widening its lead. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.
The report also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.
The Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 at for sale at the IEA bookshop.