Each year the IEA publishes reports forecasting market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. The 2013 editions began with the London launch of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, on 14 May, followed in June by the Medium-Term Gas Market Report and Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report with the Medium-Term Coal Market Report closing out the year on 16 December. In addition, this year saw the debut in October of Energy Efficiency Market Report as part of this annual series.
The Medium-Term Reports aim to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures for the 2013-2018 period. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered.
The medium-term reports, although published at different times of the year, are also consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The 2012 releases capped the success over the previous five years of the medium-term reports covering oil and gas. The release of the series was also spread through that year, following the December 2011 release of the first Medium-Term Coal Market Report. In June 2012 came the Medium-Term Gas Market Report, followed in July by the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report and in October by the Medium-Term Oil Market Report. The cycle concluded in December with the release of the second Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
Energy efficiency has been referred to as a “hidden fuel”, one that extends energy supplies, increases energy security, lowers carbon emissions and generally supports sustainable economic growth. Yet it is hiding in plain sight: In 2011, investments in the energy efficiency market globally were at a similar scale to those in renewable energy or fossil-fuel power generation.
The first Energy Efficiency Market Report provides a practical basis for understanding energy efficiency market activities, a review of the methodological and practical challenges associated with measuring the market and its components, and statistical analysis of energy efficiency and its impact on energy demand. It also highlights a specific technology sector in which there is significant energy efficiency market activity, in this instance appliances and information and communication technologies (ICT). The report also presents a selection of country case studies that illustrate current energy efficiency markets in specific sectors, and how they may evolve in the medium term.
The energy efficiency market is diffuse, varied and involves all energy-consuming sectors of the economy. A comprehensive overview of market activity is complicated by the challenges associated with quantifying the components of the market and the paucity of comparable reported data. This report underscores how vital highquality and timely energy efficiency data is to understanding this market.
This Report sits alongside the IEA market reports for oil, gas, coal and renewable energy, highlighting energy efficiency’s place as a major energy resource. It summarises the trends and prospects for investment and energy cost savings in the medium term, up to 2020.
Renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global energy mix, accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production. Much of this success has stemmed from economic incentives and significant policy effort by countries, particularly those in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as leaders in deployment.
While renewable energy has been the fastest growing sector of the energy mix in percentage terms, its continued growth will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.
This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report, provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation through 2017. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, which represent 80% of renewable electricity generation today, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.
The 2013 edition of Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report is now available for purchase at the IEA bookshop.
Global growth in natural gas use slowed measurably in 2012, although it still exceeded that of oil and total energy use. Among the headwinds facing gas are continuing weak demand in Europe, resilience of coal in North America as well as persistent bottlenecks and disruptions in the LNG value chain that in 2012 caused an exceptional global decline of LNG supply. At the same time, Asian demand for gas remains red-hot, and gas is beginning to gain traction as a transport fuel.
The IEA new Medium-Term Gas Market Report provides a detailed analysis of demand, upstream investment and trade developments through 2018 that will shape the gas industry and the role of gas in the global energy system. Its special sections investigate the economic viability of gas-fired power generation in Europe, the prospects for an LNG trading hub in Asia as well as the potentially transformational role of natural gas in transport. Amid a continuous regional divergence between North American abundance, European weakness and Asian thirst for LNG, the 2013 Medium-Term Gas Market Report will investigate the key questions that the gas industry faces. These include the prospect of the United States becoming a major gas exporter, the challenges of securing enough gas to meet China’s growth, and the ability of Russian gas – spurred both by weak EU demand and resurgent domestic production – to find its manifest destiny in Asia.
Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013 is on sale at the IEA bookshop.
The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.
This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a “game changer”. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.
While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.
These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.
Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2013 is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.
Despite public calls in many countries for reducing reliance on coal as a primary but high-carbon energy source, global demand continues to escalate: by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source, the Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 reported. In that period, coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas
The world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to 2012 – equivalent to the coal consumption of Russia and the United States combined in 2012. The Medium-Term Coal Market Report, the second such annual reportfrom the IEA, presented a comprehensive analysis of recent trends in coal demand, supply and trade, as well as an IEA outlook for coal market fundamentals for the coming five years. The report placed a special focus on trade and infrastructure development in the key exporting countries.
China and India lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five years. The report noted that China will surpass the rest of the world in coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest seaborne coal importer and second-largest consumer, surpassing the United States.
“How to fix the 21st Century’s dirty engine of growth” – a Huffington Post commentary by IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven
Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013 will be available at the IEA bookshop on 16 December