Each year the IEA publishes reports forecasting market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. In addition, a market report assesses energy efficiency. In 2014, the Medium-Term Gas Market Report and the Medium-Term Oil Market Report were launched in June, and two months later saw the appearance of the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report, followed by the Energy Efficiency Market Report, and for the end of the year the Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
The medium-term reports aim to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures for the 2014-2019 period. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered.
The medium-term reports, although published at different times of the year, are consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The reports can be ordered via the IEA Bookshop, while the Medium-Term Oil Market Report also forms an integral part of the annual subscription service for the benchmark monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.
A webinar featuring IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven and Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division Antoine Halff introduced the 2014 edition of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report on 17 June. The new edition addresses in particular the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch. Widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and industry, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 examines how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments, analysing such questions as:
As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil's role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the MTOMR's insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.
The Medium-Term Gas Market Report provides a detailed analysis of demand, upstream investment and trade developments for the following five years that will shape the gas industry and the role of gas in the global energy system. The 2014 edition was launched on the 10 June, at the Conference of Montreal.
The Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2014 gives a detailed analysis of demand, supply and trade developments as well as infrastructure investments to meet the 2.2% annual growth in gas demand expected through 2019. It investigates the important changes that will transform the industry: rising regional disparities between gas-hungry regions such as China and the Middle East against weakening growth in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Europe; competition between FSU supplies and LNG from the United States and Australia, notably in Europe and Asia; the shift towards net imports in non-OECD Asia and Latin America; and uncertainty over whether Europe can ease its dependency on Russian gas. Besides enhanced coverage of gas in the power sector, this year’s report features special focuses on the potential of gas in maritime transport; the competition between oil and gas to meet fast-growing power consumption in the Middle East; the implications of Iran’s possible return to the international gas scene; and the interplay of natural gas liquids and natural gas in the United States.
Renewable power capacity expanded at its fastest pace to date in 2013. Renewable power generation continued to grow strongly, reaching almost 22% of the global mix, compared with 21% in 2012 and 18% in 2007. Globally, renewable electricity generation is now on par with that of natural gas, which remained relatively stable in 2013. Investment in new renewable power capacity topped USD 250 billion globally in 2013 and is likely to remain at high levels.
Nevertheless, policy and market risks increasingly cloud the development picture, raising concerns over how fast renewables can scale up to meet long-term deployment objectives. Just when renewables are becoming a cost-competitive option in an increasing number of cases, policy uncertainty is rising in some key OECD markets. Renewables continue to spread in emerging markets, where fast-growing power demand and diversification needs provide strong deployment drivers. Still, barriers to development remain in a number of non-OECD areas, including China. As a result, despite strong anticipated generation growth, renewable power capacity additions and investment are expected to level off through 2020. Meanwhile, biofuels for transport and renewables for heat continue to grow, though at slower rates than renewable electricity and with persistent policy challenges.
The Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 assesses market trends for renewables in the electricity, transport and heat sectors, identifying drivers and challenges to deployment, and making projections through 2020. The report presents for the first time an investment outlook for renewable power capacity, in addition to projections for renewable electricity technologies, a global biofuels supply forecast and extended analysis of final energy use of renewables for heat.
Energy efficiency has been referred to as a “hidden fuel”, one that extends energy supplies, increases energy security, lowers carbon emissions and generally supports sustainable economic growth. Yet it is hiding in plain sight: the global energy efficiency market is worth at least USD 310 billion a year and growing, according to the Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014. The report also finds that energy efficiency finance is becoming an established market segment, with innovative new products and standards helping to overcome risks and bringing stability and confidence to the market.
The evidence is clear: energy efficiency has played, and continues to play, a large and valuable role in the sustainable development of the global economy. The Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014 includes an in-depth look at energy efficiency developments in the transport sector and in finance. Huge new waves of demand for mobility are emerging in OECD non-members, bringing with them the challenges of pollution and congestion already faced in OECD members. Fuel-economy standards and other policies are expected to help shape the market for more energy-efficient vehicles in the years to come. In financial markets, energy efficiency is becoming an important segment in its own right, aided by a growing range of financial products. The report documents the growing scale and diversity of energy efficiency products and actors.
Finally, the Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014 reviews national energy efficiency market developments in various jurisdictions around the world, including Canada, China, the EU, India and Italy. These case studies provide snapshots of specific energy efficiency sub-markets and insights into how these markets may evolve in the coming years.
This is the second annual energy efficiency report. The first Energy Efficiency Market Report provided a practical basis for understanding energy efficiency market activities, a review of the methodological and practical challenges associated with measuring the market and its components, and statistical analysis of energy efficiency and its impact on energy demand. It also highlighted a specific technology sector in which there is significant energy efficiency market activity, in this instance appliances and information and communication technologies (ICT). The report also presented a selection of country case studies that illustrate current energy efficiency markets in specific sectors, and how they may evolve in the medium term.
Tougher Chinese policies aimed at reducing dependency on coal will help restrain global coal demand growth over the next five years. Despite the slightly slower pace of growth, however, coal will meet more of the increase in global primary energy than oil or gas – continuing a trend that has been in place for more than a decade.
Coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.3% per year through 2018, the new book reports, compared with the 2012 report’s forecast of 2.6% for the five years through 2017 and the actual growth rate of 3.4% per year from 2007 to 2012.
While China will account for nearly 60% of new global demand over the next five years, government efforts to encourage energy efficiency and diversify electricity generation will dent that growth, slowing the global increase in demand.
Despite its moderated demand forecast, the report does not project peak coal in China within the next five years, and the nation’s consumption and production will remain comparable to that of the rest of the world combined. Moreover, the report notes that China has approved a number of coal conversion projects to produce liquid fuels and synthetic natural gas – developments that bear watching as they could significantly reduce the country’s demand for other fossil fuels.
For the rest of Asia, coal demand is forecast to stay buoyant over the next five years. India and countries in Southeast Asia are increasing consumption, and India will rival China as the top importer in the next five years.
The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013 is for sale at the IEA bookshop. The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 - Market Trends and Projections to 2017 is now available for free download.
“How to fix the 21st Century’s dirty engine of growth” – a Huffington Post commentary by IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven