Market Report Series
Each year the IEA publishes reports that forecast market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. In addition, a market report assesses energy efficiency.
The reports aim to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures to 2021. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered.
Although published at different times of the year, the market report series is consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The most recent editions of the market reports can be ordered via the IEA Bookshop, and the Oil 2017 forms an integral part of the annual subscription service for the benchmark monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Older editions of the market reports are available below for free download. See the below sections for more detail and the download links to the most recent and older editions of all the market reports as well as related material.
Market Report Series: Energy Efficiency 2017
Energy efficiency is central to all global energy transitions. It is the world’s most available, secure and affordable energy resource and every government around the world has the power to further exploit efficiency for widespread benefit.
Energy Efficiency 2017 is the global tracker examining the trends, indicators, impacts and drivers of energy efficiency progress. The questions addressed in this year’s report include:
- How quickly is the world becoming more energy efficient? Which countries are making most progress?
- What are the impacts of energy efficiency on the global economy and energy system?
- How does energy efficiency affect global, regional and national energy security?
- How has policy, a key driver of energy efficiency, progressed globally? How does policy vary between countries, economic sectors and end-use appliances?
- How has energy efficiency affected household energy expenditure? What technology changes might unlock future savings?
- How is efficiency evolving in the major end-use sectors of industry, buildings and transport?
- What happened to energy efficiency investment in 2016? What business models and sources of finance are driving greater investment?
- How has the market for energy services changed? In which markets is energy efficiency being commoditised?
This year’s report also includes a special country focus on Indonesia, the largest energy consumer in Southeast Asia.
The IEA is working to improve understanding of the status, drivers and benefits of energy efficiency. Energy Efficiency 2017 is the key global tracker of energy efficiency progress and a vital information resource for policy makers and companies seeking to reap the multiple benefits of energy efficiency.
The Energy Efficiency Market Report 2016 (Chinese, additional material) and the Medium-Term Energy Efficiency Market Reports for 2015 (Chinese, French, Spanish), 2014, 2013 are available for free download.
Market Report Series: Renewables 2017
The rapid spread of renewable energy is a bright spot in the global energy transition toward a low carbon economy. Despite lower fossil fuel prices, renewable power expanded at its fastest-ever rate in 2015, thanks to supportive government policies and sharp cost reductions. Renewables accounted for more than half of the world’s additional electricity capacity last year. Yet, even with this remarkable progress, there are questions about whether renewables are on track to reach targets set by the Paris Agreement.
This report examines these questions in detail, looking closely at how renewable energy in the power, heat and transportation sectors will evolve over the next five years in the face of lower fossil fuel prices. It explores recent renewable deployment and policy trends across different regions and countries, particularly as costs for wind and solar PV continue to fall.
Renewables 2017 also assesses the potential impact of enhanced policy action for the electricity sector under its "accelerated case", which would position the world firmly on a path to a more sustainable and secure energy system. Read the press release here.
Market Report Series: Gas 2017
The natural gas market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Industry has overtaken the power sector as the driving force behind the growing use of gas, thanks to rising demand in places like the People’s Republic of China, developing Asia, the Middle East and the United States. At the same time, structural changes in gas supply and trade are changing the global gas market. Heavily oversupplied markets, the ongoing shale-gas revolution in the United States, the second wave of additional liquefaction capacity from Australia and the US, and the fast-growing LNG trade are disrupting traditional gas business and pricing models. This is forcing market players to redefine their strategies and explore new markets.
The IEA’s renamed Gas 2017 market report provides a detailed analysis of supply and trade developments, infrastructure investments, and demand-growth forecast through 2022. It assesses the main changes that will likely transform the gas market, led by rising demand in countries that include China, India, and Pakistan, thanks to ongoing economic growth and relatively low LNG prices. It also explores widening regional differences to traditional gas users, with flat demand forecast in Europe and structural demand decline in Japan.
Oversupplied markets will also keep pressure on prices and discourages new upstream investment in gas production and LNG liquefaction capacity. At the same time, market reforms in places like Egypt, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico have the potential to bring new investments and technologies to unlock vast domestic resources, creating new prospects for the gas industry.
This year marks a new period of oil market management by leading oil producers who put together in late 2016 the most comprehensive agreement to limit oil output seen since 2009. The reason was to ensure that oil prices were stabilised to avoid economic dislocation in producing countries and provide a platform for gradual growth. The agreement brought to an end a two-year free-market window where producers competed to secure outlets for their oil.
This agreement provides the backdrop to the IEA's latest five-year oil market forecast, which was renamed Market Report Series: Oil 2017 (formerly known as the Medium-Term Oil Market Report). While we cannot know how long the deal will last, it provides clear trends to guide our view of the next five years.
The Oil 2017 report, which provides market analysis and forecasts to 2022, sets the scene for what promises to be a transformative period in the history of oil.
Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2016
Analysis on coal often tends to be one-sided. But to truly understand the important role that coal plays, for better or worse, in the global energy system, it is critical that we examine both sides of the coin. This means understanding the implications of climate agreements on the future for coal while at the same time coming to terms with what coal is doing – and will continue to do – for energy security and energy access in developing and emerging economies.
This means taking a close look at those emerging economies, specifically in South and Southeast Asia. For example, given China’s dominance in coal markets, the main problem for the coal industry is adjusting to how Chinese demand and imports will evolve in the future. In India, already the second largest coal consumer in the world, coal use is expected to grow. Will this trigger imports? Viet Nam, a net exporter until 2014, is building coal power plants at a fast pace. How much coal will they need to import? Where will that coal come from?
Meanwhile, despite an increase in the price of natural gas price in the United States, coal consumption continues to drop. Is this decline inevitable? The last coal plants closed in Belgium and Scotland in 2016 while other European nations have announced the end of coal generation. Is coal going to disappear forever from Europe? At the same time, banks and funds are turning away from coal financing. Will this bring a halt to construction of new coal power plants?
The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2016 addresses these questions and more, providing insight into the drivers of coal demand, supply and trade through 2021.