IEA releases Oil Market Report for November

Robust output by OPEC and non-OPEC producers keeps adding to global oil supply

14 November 2014

Global oil supply inched up by 35 000 barrels per day (35 kb/d) in October to 94.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for November told subscribers, with total supply 2.7 mb/d more than a year earlier as higher year-on-year OPEC production added to non‐OPEC supply growth of 1.8 mb/d. Month-on-month, OPEC output eased by 150 kb/d in October, to 30.60 mb/d, but remained well above the organisation's official 30 mb/d supply target for a sixth month running. The group’s oil ministers meet on 27 November against the backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered, in June. Non‐OPEC production growth is forecast to ease to 1.3 mb/d for 2015.

Global oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2015 were unchanged from the October OMR, at 92.4 mb/d and 93.6 mb/d, respectively. Projected growth will increase from a five‐year annual low of 680 kb/d in 2014 to an estimated 1.1 mb/d next year as the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to improve.

OECD industry oil stocks built counter‐seasonally by 12.6 mb in September. Their deficit versus average levels, after ballooning earlier this year, fell to its narrowest since April 2013. Preliminary data show that despite a 4.2 mb draw, stocks swung into a surplus to average levels in October for the first time since March 2013.

OMR subscribers this month also were privy to a detailed look at China’s continuing additions to its strategic petroleum reserve as well as a report on how tightening regulations are shifting shipping demand to gasoil from fuel oil.

The OMR is a monthly International Energy Agency publication that provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, please click here.

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