Accelerating global demand to reach 94 mb/d by end of year; non-cartel output more than offsets lacklustre OPEC production
13 June 2014
The IEA Oil Market Report for June forecast a 1.3 million barrel-per-year (mb/d) rise in global oil demand for this year, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in the first quarter to a high of 94 mb/d in the fourth.
Global supplies rose 530 000 barrels a day (530 kb/d) in May, to 92.6 mb/d, mostly on an increase in non‐OPEC production of 440 kb/d, the monthly report informed subscribers. On a yearly basis, world output was up 1.0 mb/d for the month, as non‐OPEC growth of 2.1 mb/d compensated for OPEC declines.
OPEC supplies inched up by 85 kb/d to 29.99 mb/d in May, with increased Saudi output offsetting declines in Libya. The “call” on OPEC crude and stock changes was raised by 150 kb/d for 2H14 to an average of 30.9 mb/d.
OECD industry stocks built by 39.8 mb, twice the seasonal average, to stand at 2 624 mb by end‐April. As a result, the deficit to average levels fell to 77 mb, its narrowest since October 2013. Preliminary data indicate a further strong 37.4 mb build in May.
Global refinery crude demand fell to a seasonal low of 75.9 mb/d in April on maintenance and weak margins. OECD runs were stronger than expected, rising by 470 kb/d year‐on‐year, their first annual gain since June 2013. Global runs are set to increase seasonally through August, averaging 76.5 mb/d in the second and 77.8 mb/d in the third.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here. The OMR for June is an abbreviated release including highlights, a lead article and tables, ahead of the 17 June release of the Medium‐Term Oil Market Report 2014. Full detailed written analysis will resume with the next monthly OMR, on 11 July.
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