Lower economic growth outlook trims 2014 demand increase
12 August 2014
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for August lowered its 2014 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) on lower‐than‐expected deliveries in the second quarter and the International Monetary Fund's weaker outlook for economic growth. But as the economy improves in 2015, demand is set to accelerate by 1.3 mb/d in 2015.
OPEC crude oil supply rose by 300 000 barrels per day (300 kb/d) to 30.44 mb/d in July, a five‐month high, as a boost from Saudi Arabia to 10 mb/d and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than made up for declines in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" averages around 30.8 mb/d for the fourth quarter, just like in the third, the OMR informed subscribers.
The global oil supply increased 230 kb/d in July, to 93.0 mb/d, with higher OPEC output countering slightly lower non‐OPEC supply. Compared with July 2013, global supplies rose 840 kb/d, as a 1.2 mb/d increase in non‐OPEC supplies more than offset a 360 kb/d decline in OPEC output.
OECD industry stocks posted their sixth consecutive monthly build in June, rising 13.8 mb to stand at 2 671 mb at the end of the month, their highest level since September 2013. Inventories’ deficit to the five‐year average narrowed to 42.1 mb from 52.0 mb at the end of May. The second-quarter stock build of 88 mb was the largest quarterly build since the third quarter of 2006.
Global refinery activity saw diverging trends in June. A counter‐seasonal fall in OECD throughputs contrasted with record highs in key non‐OECD countries. The OMR estimated second-quarter global refinery runs at 76.5 mb/d, 1.3 mb/d more than a year earlier and 0.2 mb/d higher than in the previous OMR. Projections for the third quarter remain unchanged at 77.8 mb/d.
Among special focus articles in the August OMR, subscribers are learning about the possible effects of Argentina's credit default on the previously positive outlook for the country's oil sector. Also, the monthly report takes a close look at the ongoing restructuring of the Italian refining industry.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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