Reduction in Russian demand trims global forecast marginally
11 April 2014
The Oil Market Report (OMR) for April marginally trimmed its 2014 forecast of global demand growth to 1.3 million barrels/day (mb/d), reflecting downward adjustments to the projection of Russian demand. But the absolute demand estimate remained roughly unchanged from March, at 92.7 mb/d, the monthly IEA report told subscribers, as upward revisions to baseline non‐OECD Asian demand counterbalanced the lower Russian growth.
Global supplies plunged 1.2 mb/d during March to 91.75 mb/d, led by steeply lower OPEC output in the month, but remained 1.1 mb/d higher than a year earlier, as non‐OPEC growth of 1.98 mb/d more than offset a nearly 1 mb/d drop in OPEC crude. Reduced supply expectations for formerly Soviet countries helped cut the non‐OPEC supply growth forecast by 250 000 barrels per day (250 kb/d), to 1.5 mb/d. The OMR raised its “call on OPEC crude and stock change” for the remainder of the year by 300 kb/d to average 30.2 mb/d, reflecting a reduced forecast of non‐OPEC supplies. OPEC supply in March, the OMR found, was 29.62 mb/d.
Global refinery crude demand is set to drop by 2 mb/d from February through April on planned maintenance in the Atlantic basin and the Pacific.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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