Demand growth to pick up speed next year after holding steady for 2013
12 September 2013
Global demand growth is forecast to rise to 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2014, as the underlying macroeconomic backdrop solidifies, the IEA Oil Market Report for September told subscribers. But its forecast for 2013 demand growth remains flat at 895 000 barrels per day (895 kb/d), as stronger–than‐expected deliveries in July offset concerns about the demand impact of currency fluctuations in emerging-market economies.
Global supply is estimated to have fallen by 770 kb/d in August to 91.59 mb/d, with both non‐OPEC and OPEC registering monthly declines. For the full third quarter, non‐OPEC production is expected to rise by 520 kb/d quarter-on-quarter as a seasonal decline in the North Sea is more than made up for by North American growth and steady production elsewhere.
OPEC crude supplies fell by 260 kb/d to 30.51 mb/d in August as near‐record Saudi output only partly offset a collapse in Libyan production. The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" was raised by 200 kb/d on higher third-quarter demand but lowered by 100 kb/d for the fourth quarter, to 30.3 mb/d and 29.6 mb/d, respectively.
Global refinery crude runs reached a seasonal peak in July, at an estimated 78.2 mb/d, up 1 mb/d from June and up 1.8 mb/d from a year earlier. Throughputs are set to fall steeply from August on weaker margins and heavy maintenance. Global runs are to average 77.2 mb/d in the third quarter, up 1.1 mb/d year‐on‐year, and 76.8 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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