Record production elsewhere more than offsets plunge in OPEC output; European refinery runs hit two-decade low
14 November 2013
Record‐high non‐OPEC output lifted global oil supplies by 600 000 barrels per day (600 kb/d) in October to 91.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), the IEA Oil Market Report for November informs subscribers. Year‐on‐year, October supplies rose 640 kb/d, as a 1.84 mb/d surge in non‐OPEC liquids and OPEC NGLs offset a 1.20 mb/d plunge in OPEC crude. Total non‐OPEC supply growth is forecast at 1.3 mb/d for 2013 and 1.8 mb/d for 2014.
OPEC crude supply fell in October for the third month running, led by a cutback in Saudi output. Ministers will meet on 4 December to discuss the outlook. Several ministers said they expect an unchanged output target of 30 mb/d. The “call on OPEC and stock change” for the current quarter and 2014 is unchanged at 29.6 mb/d and 28.6 mb/d, respectively.
The forecast for global refinery runs this quarter has been cut by 0.6 mb/d to 76.7 mb/d on reduced European throughputs. Year‐on‐year growth in throughputs is now expected to slow to 0.4 mb/d in the quarter. Weak margins and seasonal plant maintenance slashed European runs in September to their lowest level since April 1991.
Counter‐seasonally, OECD industry stocks built in September, reversing the draw in August. Stocks of refined products covered 30.8 days of forward demand as of the end of the month. Preliminary data point to an unusually shallow draw of 7.6 mb in total oil inventories in October.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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