2013 global demand forecast is cut slightly; non-OPEC output increases year-on-year
13 March 2013
Crude oil futures reversed their upward course in mid-February with benchmark Brent crude falling to nine-week lows by early March, the IEA Oil Market Report for March said.
Amid a recent string of disappointing economic signals spanning several key economies, the latest report, released on 13 March, slightly lowered its estimate of global oil demand for 2013 compared with last month's report, to 90.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), implying overall year-on-year demand growth of 820 000 barrels per day (820 kb/d).
Global oil supply rose in February by 90 kb/d to 90.8 mb/d on higher OPEC output. Non-OPEC output fell by 60 kb/d in February to 54.1 mb/d, but increased on annual basis by 600 kb/d due to strong growth from North America. Non-OPEC supply growth is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2013 to 54.5 mb/d. OPEC crude oil supply was seen marginally higher in February, up 150 kb/d to 30.49 mb/d, largely because of increased supplies from Iraq.
The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" for 2013 was revised down by 100 kb/d to 29.7 mb/d. OECD industry stocks rebounded by 22.5 mb to 2 689 mb at end-January. Total product inventories covered 30.7 days of forward demand, 0.1 day higher than the previous month.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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