Oil demand is increased slightly; non-OPEC supply forecast is lifted slightly while OPEC output rose in April
12 June 2013
Oil futures prices declined in April on seasonally weaker demand. Brent fell by around USD 6.10/bbl to USD 103.40/bbl amid a surplus of light, sweet grades in Europe, and last traded nearly unchanged at USD 103.10/bbl. In contrast, WTI inched down by just USD 0.90/bbl to an average USD 92.05/bbl, and by early May bounced back up to USD 95.50/bbl.The WTI‐Brent futures price spread fell to its narrowest in more than two years, contracting to about USD 7.75/bbl in early May from an average USD 11.35/bbl in April, USD 16.58/bbl in March and USD 20.75/bbl in February.
The global oil demand forecast was raised by a marginal 65 kb/d for 2013, to 90.6 mb/d, due mainly to upward revisions to German gasoil data for 2012. The global growth forecast is unchanged at 795 kb/d.
The non‐OPEC supply forecast was raised by 50 kb/d to 54.5 mb/d for2013 on rebounding output in South Sudan and strong North American oil sands and tight oil production. Annual growth remains projected at 1.1 mb/d after US and Australia data revisions raised the 2012 estimate by 0.1 mb/d.
OPEC crude production rose by 200 kb/d to 30.70 mb/d in April, led by Iraq. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2Q13 fell by 400 kb/d to 28.9 mb/d on higher OPEC NGLs and non‐OPEC supplies. OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna on 31 May to review the market outlook.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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