Non-OPEC supply seen growing even faster in 2014 than this year: Highlights
11 July 2013
Despite a lacklustre economic outlook, futures markets were buoyed by upheaval in Egypt and supply‐side issues. Futures edged mildly higher in June but posted stronger gains in early July, with Brent last trading at $108.30/bbl and WTI at $105.20/bbl.
Global demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2014, following upwardly‐revised growth of 930 kb/d in 2013. Unseasonably cold weather in the OECD helped to raise the estimates for 2Q13 and fullyear 2013 by 645 kb/d and 215 kb/d, respectively.
Non‐OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, higher than an upwardly revised 1.2 mb/d for 2013. Global supplies fell by 0.3 mb/d to 91.2 mb/d in June m‐o‐m, as lower OPEC crude output more than offset an 80 kb/d gain in non‐OPEC supply.
Disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq cut OPEC crude oil supplies by 370 kb/d in June, to 30.61 mb/d. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 1H13 was raised by 350 kb/d to 29.6 mb/d, as cold weather lifted 2Q13 demand. For 2014, the ‘Call’ is forecast to decline by 200 kb/d to 29.4 mb/d.
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