Agency sees higher demand for 2014, but reduced GDP outlook trims growth: Highlights
9 August 2013
WTI futures hit 16‐month highs in July, narrowing the gap with Brent, amid surging US refining runs and crude draws.
Global oil demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 to 1.1 mb/d, compared with 0.9 mb/d in 2013. The forecast of demand growth for 2014 has been trimmed by 0.1 mb/d on reduced GDP expectations from the IMF, while that for 2013 is largely unchanged.
Global supply is estimated to have increased by 575 kb/d m‐o‐m in July, to 91.85 mb/d, led by higher non‐OPEC production. Strong growth in North America is expected to lift 2H13 total non‐OPEC supply by an average 1.4 mb/d y‐o‐y, to reach 55.4 mb/d in 4Q13.
OPEC crude oil supplies edged down by 165 kb/d m‐o‐m in July, to 30.41 mb/d, on supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq and despite higher Saudi output. The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" for 3Q13 was revised upwards by 200 kb/d, to 30 mb/d, on higher demand projections for the quarter.
Global refinery crude demand surged by 3.1 mb/d in June, its highest monthly increase on record, and likely rose further in July, ahead of autumn maintenance. At 77.2 mb/d, June runs were almost 2.0mb/d above year‐earlier levels. Global runs were pegged at 74.8 mb/d for 2Q13, rising to 77.3 mb/d in 3Q13.
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