Release of Medium-Term Oil Market Report

: 12 October 2012

Report provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, demand by key product, refined product output and upstream and downstream investments through 2017.

Details

The oil market has been buffeted by supply shortfalls, from Libya in 2011 and Iran in 2012, to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages. Prices have tested 2008 highs, re-igniting debate on price formation and the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. And despite concerns about the health of the OECD economies, robust global demand growth is supported by the insatiable appetite of emerging market consumers. However, amid a shift towards ever-cleaner fuels, the refining industry, notably in Europe, confronts serious challenges of surplus capacity, gasoline-diesel imbalance, and a glut of light-sweet crude oil feedstocks, placing upgrading economics in question.

The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) - companion to the authoritative monthly OMR - takes a step back from short term swings in supply, demand, stocks, margins and prices to put recent developments in context. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, demand by key product, refined product output and upstream and downstream investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes and the degree to which new OPEC capacity investment will keep up with surging demand growth in China, India and the Middle East.

OPEC internal dynamics are reviewed, so too the contribution of burgeoning new supplies from deepwater, oil shale, biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The complex demand-side interactions between income, price and inter-fuel substitution are examined, all within the coherent analytical framework developed over the last 30 years in the OMR. MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and the adequacy of today’s investments for satisfying future demand.