IEA releases Oil Market Report for January

16 January 2015

Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand growth, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for January told subscribers, with fourth quarter 2014 deliveries estimated just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) above year-earlier levels. Despite lower prices, with Brent crude futures near a six-year low, demand growth is forecast to accelerate only 0.9 mb/d in 2015, unchanged from the outlook in the December 2014 report.

The oil selloff has cut expectations of 2015 non-OPEC supply growth by 350 000 barrels per day (350 kb/d) since last month, to 950 kb/d. Effects on North American supply are so far limited to 95 kb/d and 80 kb/d to the Canadian and US forecasts, respectively. Projections are cut by 175 kb/d for Colombia and 30 kb/d for Russia.

OPEC output rose by 80 kb/d in December to 30.48 mb/d, as Iraqi supply surged to 35-year highs, offsetting deeper losses in Libya. Downward revisions to the non-OPEC supply outlook raise the “call” on OPEC for the second half of 2015 to an average 29.8 mb/d – just shy of OPEC's official target of 30 mb/d.

Global refinery crude throughputs surged to a record high of 78.9 mb/d in December, lifting the fourth quarter 2014 estimate to 78.2 mb/d. But throughputs are forecast to ease seasonally to 77.8 mb/d in the current quarter amid brimming product inventories, weakening margins, lower demand and increased refinery maintenance.

The January OMR also provided a special focus on the surge in Iraqi output as well as informed subscribers about recent developments in Chinese and Singaporean stocks and how widening contango has renewed interest in floating storage. Learn about the recent upgrade of the OMR, which now offers interactive tables, improved search and much more.

The OMR is a monthly International Energy Agency publication that provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, please click here.