IEA releases June Oil Market Report

12 June 2013

Oil futures prices declined in April on seasonally weaker demand. Brent fell by around USD 6.10/bbl to USD 103.40/bbl amid a surplus of light, sweet grades in Europe, and last traded nearly unchanged at USD 103.10/bbl. In contrast, WTI inched down by just USD 0.90/bbl to an average USD 92.05/bbl, and by early May bounced back up to USD 95.50/bbl.The WTI‐Brent futures price spread fell to its narrowest in more than two years, contracting to about USD 7.75/bbl in early May from an average USD 11.35/bbl in April, USD 16.58/bbl in March and USD 20.75/bbl in February.

The global oil demand forecast was raised by a marginal 65 kb/d for 2013, to 90.6 mb/d, due mainly to upward revisions to German gasoil data for 2012. The global growth forecast is unchanged at 795 kb/d.

The non‐OPEC supply forecast was raised by 50 kb/d to 54.5 mb/d for2013 on rebounding output in South Sudan and strong North American oil sands and tight oil production. Annual growth remains projected at 1.1 mb/d after US and Australia data revisions raised the 2012 estimate by 0.1 mb/d.

OPEC crude production rose by 200 kb/d to 30.70 mb/d in April, led by Iraq. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2Q13 fell by 400 kb/d to 28.9 mb/d on higher OPEC NGLs and non‐OPEC supplies. OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna on 31 May to review the market outlook.

The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.

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